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Can we just sit back and take in what we saw Tuesday night between the Mets and Giants? If you chose to place a bet on that game or are a fan of either team, I'm sure your heart rate hasn't fully recovered, but it will likely go down as the best game of the year when all things are settled. Let's have more of these types of games, please!
Welcome back, RotoBallers! In this article, I'll be providing my favorite betting picks MLB games on Thursday, May 26, 2022, for the 11-game 12:35 PM EST slate. Personally, my approach stems a bit more on the analytical side; I utilize a projection model I created utilizing projections from THE BAT X and Fangraphs Depth Charts to estimate the true talent of each lineup and pitching staff, adjusting for the team's pitcher. Based on the expected run differential each team is supposed to have in a game, we can compare this to see how much a team should theoretically win by, which allows us to translate that into a win probability, which leads to an adjusted money-line. For game totals, the implied runs scored and runs allowed for each team (with today's starting pitcher) are used, along with Baseball Savant park factors. This is not the "end all be all," but having some objective system to identify potential sources of value can be extremely helpful!
Today, we will be looking at the best side and total bets for today's slate. Even without a full slate of games, there are plenty of potential value opportunities to take a look at. What sides/totals should you have your eye on? Let's dive right into today's action!
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MLB Betting Projection Model Results
*NOTE: Negative Diff indicates that the home team is projected to win, and vice versa.
Milwaukee Brewers @ St.Louis Cardinals
O/U: 7.5 | Moneyline: STL -125
MIL: Eric Lauer | STL: Adam Wainwright
Every year, there are a few breakout pitchers that don't come into the season with lofty expectations but solidify themselves as high-end pitchers. There are several candidates for this season. Right now, Eric Lauer fits that bill to a tee.
It is hard to put into words how dominant Lauer has been for Milwaukee this season. In seven starts, the 26-year-old possesses a 32.9% strikeout rate, 28% K-BB ratio, and a 2.53 skill interactive ERA (SIERA). In the second half of last season, we started to see signs of a breakout (25.5% K, 3.97 SIERA), though not to this level. So, what has changed? Well, for starters, velocity is king:
You wouldn't think that 1.3 MPH is a notable change, but in the velocity range that he is in, every extra boost in velocity is even more meaningful. Meanwhile, he's also locating his fastball more up in the zone (2.9 ft average pitch height), and has ditched his ineffective changeup for more breaking balls. Add in all together, and this is a completely different pitcher who is difficult to not have a strong level of trust in, even against a strong Cardinals lineup.
Adam Wainwright (2.87 ERA) has continued to perform at a very high level this season, but with a very low 5.8% swinging-strike rate and just a 14.5% expected strikeout rate, there appears to be future negative regression coming for him since Waino naturally allows more line drives (19.3%) closer to where it has been previously (25.4% last year). After a sluggish start to the season, the Brewers have been fantastic (7th in weighted-runs-created-plus/wRC+) as a lineup since the start of May, and have the fourth-highest weighted on-base average (wOBA) versus right-handers this season.
Meanwhile, even if Josh Hader remains unavailable, the Brewers bullpen has the third-lowest xFIP in all of baseball, while the Cardinals rank in the bottom five. One-run luck is incredibly fluky, but the Brewers have also demonstrated the ability, through a strong array of relievers and ideal game management, to consistently overachieve expectations in those types of games. It's hard to say they don't have the pitching advantage here, and although they are similar teams overall based on performance, the Brewers have the better projected rest-of-season winning percentage, per Fangraphs. Put it all together, and at plus money, Milwaukee is a strong bet here.
Pick: Milwaukee Moneyline (+108), FanDuel Sportsbook
Philadelphia Phillies @ Atlanta Braves
O/U: 8 | Moneyline: ATL -120
PHI: Aaron Nola | ATL: Kyle Wright
What a crazy series this has been! I mean, would you expect anything else between these two teams? Regardless though, with both having World Series expectations yet having sub .500 records every head-to-head matchup remains pivotal.
His 3.96 ERA may not reflect it, but Aaron Nola, with a 30.9% strikeout rate, 26.1% K-BB ratio, and 2.57 SIERA, has been absolutely spectacular this season. I know, I know – this was a similar story last year. However, there are a lot of differences. For starters, he's cut down the usage of his four-seam fastball slightly in favor of a sinker, allowing him to get back to the ground-ball-inducing ways he had previously (51.9%). While some of that is coming from a very low 15.5% line-drive rate, his launch angle allowed metrics point to it being more likely that the extra line drives come at the expense of fly balls, which you would expect since he's essentially back to the same pitcher he was previously.
With this context, a 1.55 HR/9 and 20% home run/fly ball rate, especially in this run environment, is certainly uncalled for. The Braves have surprisingly been a bottom-ten tam in terms of weighted-runs-created-plus (wRC+) against right-handed pitchers, and it's hard to have faith in the starting pitcher with the third-lowest SIERA in all of baseball.
Per Baseball-Reference, the Phillies have played the hardest strength of schedule in all of baseball, and have been the better team (20 runs better in run differential) so far this season. Kyle Wright has been fantastic this season, but he is relying slightly on a very low 0.38 HR/9 and 5.9% home run/fly ball rate. What better way for the home run regression bug to hit on both sides than here? Anytime you can side with Aaron Nola as an underdog, it's hard to pass up.
Pick: Philadelphia Moneyline (+112), FanDuel Sportsbook
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Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks
O/U: 9 | Moneyline: LAD -182
LAD: Mitch White | ARI: Humberto Castellanos
There are a lot of games projected to be very close today, but this certainly is not one of them. To be fair, the Diamondbacks (23-22) have been a surprising team so far this season, but they still have the sixth-lowest projected rest-of-season winning percentage by Fangraphs, whereas the Dodgers have a run differential per game nearly a run higher than the next team.
Los Angeles' offense is already scoring the most runs per game this season, and with Mookie Betts on an absolute tear and Trea Turner soon to be on one too, the offense is only going to continue to perform at an exceptional level. That is especially the case in this game, as Arizona starter Humberto Castellanos has a projected 4.90 ERA from Fangraphs Depth Chart projections. As someone who allows more fly balls than ground balls, it's very likely his 6.4% barrel rate allowed goes up, while he's a sinker/slider/curveball pitcher against a team who ranks near the top of the league against all of those pitches.
With the Dodgers dealing with injuries in their rotation, they'll call on Mitch White to start in this game. While he's mainly worked out of the bullpen, it has been mostly in multi-innings outings, and he's been effective (3.72 SIERA) overall. For what it's worth, there has been no drop-off in his five career starts (28.4% K, 19.8% K-BB), and he likely won't be asked to go long in this game, which is quietly a good thing for a bullpen with the second-lowest SIERA and xFIP. The Diamondbacks, meanwhile, have the worst SIERA in all of baseball, placing an extra amount of pressure on Castellanos that he may not be equipped to handle.
To be fair, anytime you can bet on the Dodgers against the Diamondbacks at a reasonable price, regardless of the pitching matchup, it is hard to pass up. Add in the concerns about Castellanos and the massive bullpen gap, and the run line at (-110) is too tempting to pass up. Perhaps this turns out to be too good to be true, but there is only one way to find out!
Pick: Dodgers Run Line (-110), FanDuel Sportsbook
Good luck, RotoBallers! Stay tuned for more great DFS and betting content throughout the week! For more betting/fantasy content, you can follow me at @talkmvp.
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