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We have 48 FBS vs. FBS matchups on Saturday this week which makes this the biggest betting day of the season so far. We've got some great ones too, and I'm not just saying that because I'm an Oklahoma fan. I know some of you are disappointed that I don't pick FCS games, but the two I've given you over the last two weeks have been winners, so you get another. Stony Brook is actually favored against UMass, so I'm going with old reliable North Dakota State in Tucson for the best chance at an outright win.
I will fill you in on what's going to happen this year. I will pick every college football game every week. Not a top five. Not a top ten. All of them. Big deal, right? Lots of people make picks. Well, I do them all against the spread. I take the odds of each game and average them out at all the Vegas casinos and round to the nearest half. There will be no ties here. Ties are for the other (European) football.
I also assign a point value based on the confidence I have in each pick. So a score of 1 means that I have little to no confidence, and a score of 5 is one I would place a decent wager on. I keep track of my record and my points back from year to year. Here are this year's results so far.
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CFB Betting Picks Overview
As we all know, this is not an exact science. Due to the volatile nature of betting in general, this is for entertainment purposes only. I cannot be responsible for the loss of money, possessions, spouses, or limbs because of my picks. I am a simple man. I can't have that on my conscience.
(1)Georgia(-24.5) at South Carolina
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
The South Carolina defense has had its problems and Georgia wasn't tested at all by Oregon. This feels simple enough. Give me Georgia.
Connecticut at (4)Michigan(-47.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This is too many. Michigan barely covered Hawaii by this and I'm pretty sure UConn is better than Hawaii. I'll take the Moras and the points.
(6)Oklahoma(-10.5) at Nebraska
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
This line is going crazy since the firing of Scott Frost. It's back up now, but it was down to -3.5 in spots. Don't fall for that. Nebraska's issues are more than just coaching and we don't have a turnover machine at quarterback for the game this year. Oklahoma is covering this time. BOOMER!
Texas State at (17)Baylor(-29.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Wow, that's a lot of points. Baylor's offense doesn't feel prolific enough to cover this one. Maybe I'm nuts. I think the Bobcats are going to travel up I-35 and keep it closer than this. I'll take State and the points, but they have no shot at a win.
Purdue at Syracuse(-1.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
This opened with Purdue favored, but the public is starting to back the Orange. It's easy to see why Garrett Shrader is great in this offense and Sean Tucker is one of the best backs in the country. I was hoping to be sneaky and grab Syracuse as a dog, but no such luck. It's still low enough that I feel pretty good about this. I believe in Syracuse this time.
Cincinnati(-22.5) at Miami(OH)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This is too many for a rivalry game, especially with the game in Oxford. I'll take the Redhawks.
Western Kentucky at Indiana(-6.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
I like the over 61 more than the spread. Both teams run a ton of plays. I do like Indiana here. The WKU defense leaves a lot to be desired and the Hoosiers are still littered with skilled players on offense. Connor Bazelak looks like a great fit.
Buffalo at Coastal Carolina(-13.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
Why did this line plunge? It makes me nervous, but come on...Buffalo lost to Holy Cross. Holy SH...wait... sometimes I forget this is a family program. Give me CCU. This still feels low.
South Alabama at UCLA(-15.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Presumably, the Bruins are going to use all of their players against this team from Alabama. If they do, this is too low. Bruins roll!
Ohio at Iowa State(-18.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This feels high. I'm not a believer in Hunter Dekkers. I don't care how good Xavier Hutchinson is (he's damn good, in case you were wondering). He can't win the game if the quarterback can't throw it to him accurately. I do like Jirehl Brock, but this still feels more like a plodding offense than one that can score at a moment's notice. Then again, Ohio just got punished by Penn State. I'll take Iowa State, but I'm likely leaving this one alone.
Rutgers(-17.5) at Temple
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Temple lost to a Duke team that really doesn't look a lot better than Rutgers by 30. I'll take the Knights.
Old Dominion at Virginia(-8.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
The Monarchs shocked the Hokies and Virginia was just absolutely dominated by the Illinois defense. This line is falling and it probably should be. I have no reason to believe in the Cavaliers right now. However, Brennan Armstrong didn't just fall off a cliff. He's still good. I'll take the Hoos, but I'm lowering the bet. I don't trust them right now.
California at Notre Dame(-10.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
This is too high. Cal is loaded with talented freshmen and has a good quarterback in Purdue transfer Jack Plummer. I'm not going to say the Irish will lose outright again, but I would be less surprised if Cal beat them. This should stay within single digits at the very least. Give me Cal.
Tulane at Kansas State(-13.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
I really hate ESPN putting Big 12(10) games on ESPN+. The last thing I need is another subscription. Last week I would have missed the Kansas-West Virginia game, which ended up being a historic one. That was worth the price...for one month anyway. Now, most of the country is going to miss out on another excellent game from Deuce Vaughn while ESPN2 gives you a blowout in Colorado-Minnesota, and ESPN itself gives you nothing between 3-6 pm. Way to go, jerks. Give me The Purple Green Wave Eaters.
North Texas at UNLV(-2.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
UNLV hanging with Cal earned them some respect. As far as North Texas goes, throttling UTEP turns out to be something they should have done, not a notch on the measuring stick. I'll take the Rebels at home, but I wouldn't go crazy with this one. This is a winnable game for North Texas.
(12)BYU at (25)Oregon(-3.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
What exactly has Oregon done to earn this line? They got stomped by Georgia and returned the favor to Eastern Washington. BYU's injuries at WR have resulted in them getting absolutely no respect from those in Vegas. I'm riding the Cougars here. That was an impressive win over Baylor even though they tried to give the game away a few times.
(20)Mississippi(-16.5) at Georgia Tech
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
The Bees are getting better, but not this much better. I'll take Ole Miss.
(22)Penn State(-3.5) at Auburn
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I don't care that the Auburn offense is struggling. This is still a tough road environment and I don't really like that half. However, Sean Clifford isn't gifting games this year. Penn State is going to need to keep their running game on point to win this one and that feels like a big question mark to me still. I'll take Penn State, but I doubt I end up betting this. It feels like a trap.
Vanderbilt at Northern Illinois(-2.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This feels backwards. Vanderbilt has improved on both sides of the ball, but I guess that's why the line is under a field goal, huh? This is a winnable game for Vandy and there's not much juice on the Huskies in most spots. I'll go Vanderbilt here.
Colorado at Minnesota(-27.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
I still have questions about Minnesota's passing game, but their running backs can cover this on their own. I'm taking Goldy.
New Mexico State at Wisconsin(-37.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I don't believe for a minute that Wisconsin has the offensive firepower to cover this. Minnesota didn't even cover this, and that is with a former coach that they really don't like roaming the other sideline. Give me the Aggies.
Troy at Appalachian State(-12.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This is a rivalry game and the Mountaineers are coming off of a massive win. I don't believe that App State loses this, but this feels like a lot of points for a Troy team that is going to be up for this challenge. I'll say Troy loses by about ten or so. They won't win, but they're going to scare App State here.
Georgia Southern at UAB(-11.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
How's this for disrespect? The Eagles go into Lincoln and win outright, but are still massive dogs in Birmingham. I don't think so. GSU outright!
Louisiana-Monroe at (2)Alabama(-49.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
I'm taking Alabama, but they almost never cover lines like this. I wouldn't bet it if you gave me the money to do so.
Kansas at Houston(-8.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
This line is all over the place, which is fitting since the game could be as well. I like Kansas and the energy they play with, but how in the world are they covering Nathaniel Dell? Anyone? That's what I thought. Kansas is going to make this interesting, but I think Houston pulls away late to cover.
Liberty at (19)Wake Forest(-16.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Sam Hartman is back. Therefore, so is Wake. I'll take the Deacons.
Colorado State at Washington State(-16.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
If Colorado State had a pulse on offense at all I might take them not to get covered, but they don't. Give me Wazzu.
Marshall(-16.5) at Bowling Green
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
Bowling Green just lost to the Colonels of Eastern Kentucky. What do you think Khalan Laborn is going to do to that defense? Give me Marshall.
Mississippi State(-2.5) at LSU
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
It seems like yesterday that Mike Leach announced his SEC presence in the opener by setting all kinds of offensive records against LSU in the season opener after they had just won a national title. It was so bad that defensive guru Bo Pelini was fired after one game as the defensive coordinator. The Bulldogs are showing patience on offense and the defense is coming around. That's the last thing that comes around before Leach has the team he really wants. I'll take Mississippi State, but I'm not betting this. LSU at home (mostly) at night is tough.
Toledo at (3)Ohio State(-31.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
The Buckeyes don't lose to Ohio teams, but they don't always cover them either. Oh, who am I kidding? Give me Ohio State.
Akron at (15)Tennessee(-47.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
That's a lot of points, but if anyone can cover it, it's an offense running at hyper-speed. Give me the Vols.
Texas Tech at (16)North Carolina State(-10.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This feels like too many. Texas Tech is having fun. When they have fun, they mess around and win. There hasn't been much fun in Lubbock since Kliff Kingsbury was winning there some five years ago. The Wolfpack likely still win this, but I think Tech makes them work for it. Give me the Red Raiders.
Arkansas State at Memphis(-14.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
We know very little about the Red Wolves still, but are they better than Navy? I doubt it. Give me Memphis.
Charlotte at Georgia State(-19.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Well...I guess that the Panthers almost beat North Carolina. Give me Georgia State.
(11)Michigan State at Washington(-3.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
Oh, come on...Washington isn't this far along yet. Michael Penix helps, but I might believe this more if he actually had good stats against the Spartans. MSU wins outright, maybe by double digits!
South Florida at (18)Florida(-24.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Anthony Richardson gets to look like the elite athlete he is, for this game at least. Give me Florida.
(23)Pittsburgh(-10.5) at Western Michigan
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Hey, don't laugh. The Broncos beat Pitt in Pittsburgh last year. I don't see a repeat, but if Nick Patti has to lead the Panthers, I trust this a lot less. Right now it looks like Slovis may be able to play. Or, more accurately, no update has been given on his status, but he didn't look like he was hurt long-term last week. Meaning...we don't know. If Slovis plays, this is too low and I'm betting a solid amount on it. If not, I'm taking the Broncos not to get covered at home.
Nevada at Iowa(-23.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
There is no way Iowa is scoring 24 points unless the defense gets three touchdowns. The offense has one touchdown against the likes of South Dakota State and Iowa State. The Wolf Pack are worse than both of them (they lost to Incarnate Word last week), but I still don't see Spencer Petras learning how to play football in a week. Give me Nevada.
SMU at Maryland(-2.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Giddyup! This is going to be a high-scoring game. They may as well play this at Pimlico Downs. I'm a believer in this Maryland offense. Taulia Tagovailoa and those receivers should have some fun here, but SMU is going to hang around. I like the over 73 more than betting the spread, but I'll take Maryland at home.
Central Florida(-8.5) at Florida Atlantic
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
This should be a fun game, but I expect UCF to pull away. FAU doesn't have the athletes to keep up for 60 minutes.
Louisiana(-10.5) at Rice
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I have no reason to think the Cajuns won't cover this.
Louisiana Tech at (5)Clemson(-33.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
This feels high. The Bulldogs aren't Furman. Of course, they got throttled by a Missouri team that in turn got blasted by Kansas State. Give me La Tech, but I would stay far away from this one.
UTSA at (21)Texas(-12.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
It says volumes about the state of the UTSA program that the Longhorns – who narrowly lost to Alabama – are only 13-point favorites at home. That said, Quinn Ewers is out and this Texas offense isn't the same under Hudson Card. I had this circled before the season as a game that Texas might lose, and I still feel like that could be true with Ewers out. UTSA is a veteran and disciplined team. They may not win outright, but I still don't see them getting covered. Meep Meep!
UTEP(-2.5) at New Mexico
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
One-point bets were invented for games like this. UTEP is the better team, but it may not be by much. I guess I trust in Gavin Hardison enough, but there's no way I would bet this. Since I have to pick, I'll take the Miners.
(13)Miami(FL) at (24)Texas A&M(-6.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
SEC bias much? It doesn't mean Vegas is...it means the bettors are. The bets drive the line. A&M might bounce back, but I just don't see them winning this game. I'll take Miami outright.
San Diego State at (14)Utah(-20.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
The first instinct is that this feels high. Then I remember that the Aztecs got blown off their shiny new field by Arizona. Give me Utah.
Fresno State at (7)USC(-12.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
You know...if Stanford weren't so turnover-prone, that game would have been much different. USC's offense is on another planet, but that defense is a liability. The hallmark of an Alex Grinch defense is to play for the big takeaway. Jake Haener won't make the mistakes that Tanner McKee did. He and Jalen Cropper (not to mention Jordan Mims) are all very experienced and don't make the mistakes that USC relies on to win games. I like Fresno here. I don't think they win, but they shouldn't get covered either.
Eastern Michigan at Arizona State(-20.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
The Oklahoma State defense confused them last week. I don't see that happening this week. I'll jump back on the Sun Devils train here.
There are 50 FBS vs. FBS games again this week. I'm holding steady with five one-point bets, but I only have one five-pointer. I was in the middle on a lot of these with nearly half of all bets (24) going for two points. I ended up with 13 3-pointers and seven four-pointers. That's more fours than usual, but I don't know that I would move any more up to five except for maybe the Marshall game.
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