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Mike's top college football betting picks and best bets for today's CFB games on 9/10/22 (Week 2). His free picks and top wagers against the spread for every FBS game.
We have 44 FBS vs. FBS matchups on Saturday this week which is nine more than last week. We've got some more big matchups on here, but those aren't always the best spots to make money. Let's take a look at where we can. I don't pick FBS vs. FCS teams because it's hard to get an accurate spread. If you want a FCS live dog though, go to Eastern Kentucky.
I will fill you in on what's going to happen this year. I will pick every college football game every week. Not a top five. Not a top ten. All of them. Big deal, right? Lots of people make picks. Well, I do them all against the spread. I take the odds of each game and average them out at all the Vegas casinos and round to the nearest half. There will be no ties here. Ties are for the other (European) football.
I also assign a point value based on the confidence I have in each pick. So a score of 1 means that I have little to no confidence, and a score of 5 is one I would place a decent wager on. I keep track of my record and my points back from year to year. Here are this year's results so far.
CFB Betting Picks Overview
As we all know, this is not an exact science. Due to the volatile nature of betting in general, this is for entertainment purposes only. I cannot be responsible for the loss of money, possessions, spouses, or limbs because of my picks. I am a simple man. I can't have that on my conscience.
(1)Alabama(-20.5) at Texas
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
This feels low. Texas beating up on Monroe does nothing for me. Alabama at least beat a decent Kent State team. This line is up six points and it might not be done climbing yet. Give me Bama. This is going to get ugly...very ugly.
Arkansas State at (3)Ohio State(-44.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
Oh, good grief. I hate lines like this. Ohio State is good enough to cover this...but what if they get bored? I'll take the Buckeyes, but I wouldn't touch this.
Southern Mississippi at (15)Miami(FL)(-26.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Can Frank Gore Jr. do enough against his father's alma mater to avoid getting covered? I doubt it, especially with Jaylen Knightley returning. Give me Miami.
South Carolina at (16)Arkansas(-8.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
South Carolina looked much better, but Arkansas for under double digits feels like a bargain. That Cincinnati team they just beat is still really good. I'll ride the wild Hogs again. Woo pig!
(23)Wake Forest(-12.5) at Vanderbilt
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Maybe this is the curse of watching Vandy against two bad teams, but this feels high. The return of Sam Hartman for Wake has caused the line to jump, but should it? At the very least he will be rusty and we still don't really know what was ailing him. And it's in Nashville. Give me Vandy. I don't think they win, but I think they hang around.
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Missouri at Kansas State(-7.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Well...this is a bit shocking. Mizzou looked good against a bad team and K-State looked average against a bad team. That half really makes me nervous, but I'm still not a believer in that Missouri defense. I'll take the Wildcats, but lower the bet.
Duke at Northwestern(-10.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
Ogre Palowakski would be appalled by this matchup. I am not. This has disaster written all over it for Duke. It's one thing to wipe the field with Temple. It's quite another to go into Evanston and beat the kings of Ireland. Northwestern by a lot!
Ohio at Penn State(-24.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Sean Clifford and the Penn State offense played well last week and should again. This still feels a touch high. Are they high-powered enough to romp the Bobcats, a team that loves to run the ball? I have my doubts. Give me Ohio and the points.
North Carolina(-7.5) at Georgia State
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
This feels low unless we think that South Carolina is about two touchdowns better than their counterparts to the north. I don't. Give me UNC.
UTSA(-2.5) at Army
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
I love UTSA. You already know this. I really love them here. Meep meep! I could see them winning this by double digits.
South Alabama at Central Michigan(-4.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
I don't really know what to make of South Alabama, but the loss of Jalen Tolbert really hurts. What Central Michigan did in the second half on the road at Stillwater really impressed me. I'm taking CMU by double digits.
Western Michigan(-6.5) at Ball State
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
We have some early season MACtion! All right! I trust the Western Michigan run game more than the Ball State offense without Drew Plitt. Give me the Broncos.
Marshall at (8)Notre Dame(-20.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I was impressed by the Irish in the opener, but more the defense than the offense. Can the offense cover this? I really don't know. Texas Tech transfer Henri Columbi had Marshall looking really good. I'll take the Herd. They won't win, but I think it stays interesting.
Appalchian State at (6)Texas A&M(-19.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
This Appalachian State offense is experienced and refined. This feels like a lot of points. Haynes King is the right guy for the Aggies and Ainias Smith is going to have a big season. Just maybe not here. A&M wins but doesn't cover.
(24)Tennessee(-6.5) at (17)Pittsburgh
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
The sharps have been all over Tennessee for a while now. That offense is just getting good and is fun to watch. We also learned that maybe Pitt's defense isn't the elite unit we have become accustomed to. Still...a touchdown on the road? This is a tough one. I still like Tennessee, but I think it's far more likely that Pitt wins at home or loses by a field goal than loses by a touchdown. This opened at -3 and would have been harder to pick there. Now that it's up this high, I'll go Pitt.
Washington State at (19)Wisconsin(-19.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
I want to say that this is too many, but we know it's not. The Cougars struggled with Idaho in the opener and have no way to stop Braelon Allen. Give me Wisconsin.
Colorado at Air Force(-17.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
The Ralphies got steamrolled at home by a TCU team that gouged them on the ground. Air Force is going to do the same and the Buffs are on the road. I have to think that Air Force covers this.
Memphis(-4.5) at Navy
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
Don't mind if I do! I know that Memphis got ravaged by a solid team, but the Middies lost to FCS Delaware. This feels way too low. Memphis rolls! The only reason this isn't a max bet is because I don't trust the Memphis D.
Maryland(-26.5) at Charlotte
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Yuck! Maryland is capable of covering this, but if they run the ball 70% of the time again, they won't. Give me Maryland, but I'm staying away from this one.
Akron at (14)Michigan State(-36.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This shouldn't be much of a challenge for Michigan State, but weird things happen with spreads this large. Give me Sparty, but I won't go crazy on this one.
(25)Houston at Texas Tech(-4.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
Say what? Tyler Shough is out and the line is still like this? I don't buy it at all. Houston almost losing to UTSA is different. The Roadrunners are better than Texas Tech. Houston wins outright and I'm not on the fence about it at all.
UNLV at California(-12.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Cal looked solid against UC-Davis, but most teams would. UNLV finally has their QB situation figured out and they have a keeper in Ricky White. UNLV might not win this, but I don't think they get covered either.
Iowa State at Iowa(-3.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
This line dropped after the Hawkeyes nearly lost to South Dakota State, but not as far as I thought. I like Iowa State straight up anyway. I'm really liking that half going the other way. I'm still on the Cyclones.
Virginia at Illinois(-3.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
I don't think so on this either. Brennan Armstrong is better than anyone on the Illinois team. I'll take the Hoos straight up!
Middle Tennessee State at Colorado State(-11.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
MTSU got blasted by James Madison in the opener, which has caused this line to rise. I like it. I wouldn't be surprised if MTSU won this outright. Give me the Blue Raiders.
Kansas at West Virginia(-13.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
The Jayhawks closed last season well and won big in the opener. Was the Mountaineers hanging with Pitt enough to warrant this line? I don't think so. The Jayhawks usually play WVU tough even when the talent level isn't close. It's closer now. Give me Kansas. They may not win outright, but it feels like the Jayhawks have heart this year.
Old Dominion at East Carolina(-12.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This line is all over the place and has been since it opened. The only constant is that the Pirates are double-digit favorites...even after the Monarchs took out Virginia Tech. That means something to me. The Monarchs may not win, but they're going to hang around. Give me ODU.
UAB(-5.5) at Liberty
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
I really have no idea. UAB should win, but Liberty looked better than I thought they would last week. I'll take them at home for one point.
Kent State at Oklahoma(-32.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
That Oklahoma offense looked good enough to cover this. I'll take the Sooners.
(20)Kentucky at (12)Florida(-5.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
I still like Kentucky outright, but I don't think I would bet it. I like getting this many for the Wildcats. I'm still taking Kentucky.
Syracuse(-23.5) at Connecticut
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Too many. UConn won't win, but they're scrappy.
Massachusetts at Toledo(-28.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Death, taxes, and UMass getting covered. Does that mean I would bet it? Probably not, but I'm still going Toledo.
Northern Illinois at Tulsa(-6.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
That Tulsa offense looked impressive, but so did NIU. This is going to be a tough game. Tough enough that I won't bet it. Give me Tulsa at home.
Eastern Michigan at Louisiana(-11.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This feels high. I'll take the Eagles with double-digit points.
Florida International at Texas State(-13.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
I can't believe I'm doing this, but give me the Bobcats. FIU escaped Bryant by one point last week.
(10)USC(-8.5) at Stanford
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
This feels low. USC has issues on the farm, but I don't see Stanford with the offense to win this. Give me the Trojans.
Arizona State at (11)Oklahoma State(-11.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This feels high with the way the Cowboys D got ravaged in the second half against Central Michigan last week. I'll take Arizona State.
San Jose State at Auburn(-23.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
This is not out of line, but I have a hard time taking Auburn by that many points. I wouldn't touch this, but give me Auburn since I have to pick it.
Georgia Southern at Nebraska(-23.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This ferarely a team that almost never gets out of its own way. I'll take the Eagles, even though they have no real chance at a win.
Hawaii at (4)Michigan(-51.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This feels like way too many, especially with Michigan experimenting with quarterbacks. Give me Hawaii, even though they're terrible.
Boston College at Virginia Tech(-2.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Nope! BC straight up!
New Mexico State at UTEP(-17.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
The Miners haven't looked all that good, but they should be good enough for this at home. I'll take UTEP.
(9)Baylor at (21)BYU(-2.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Baylor didn't look that great in the opener, but the polls still thought enough of them to leave them in the top ten. Baylor needs this win. I think they get it, but I'm probably not betting (much) on this.
Oregon State at Fresno State(EVEN)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Our first pick-em of the week, in most spots anyway. I like what I saw from Oregon State, but I still don't see them going into Fresno and winning this outright. I'll take the Bulldogs.
Mississippi State(-10.5) at Arizona
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I don't buy this. I don't buy that SDSU is no longer a good team. I like Arizona here. They may not win outright, but they're going to hang around.
There are 46 FBS vs. FBS games again this week. I went with only five one-pointers again, but I went heavy on the twos with 19 of them. I stay steady at 14 threes. I also have six four-pointers again, but only two fives. I feel a little less confident about this week than in Week 1.
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