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Mike's CFB betting picks against the spread for Week 14 (12/3/22). Every FBS college football game analyzed with his top wagers and NCAA best bets.
We only have eight games on Championship Saturday, but most of them are big ones! Teams like Kansas State and Purdue have a chance to throw the playoff into chaos. Will they do it?
I will fill you in on what's going to happen this year. I will pick every college football game every week. Not a top five. Not a top 10. All of them. Big deal, right? Lots of people make picks. Well, I do them all against the spread. I take the odds of each game and average them out at all the Vegas casinos and round to the nearest half. There will be no ties here. Ties are for the other (European) football.
I also assign a point value based on the confidence I have in each pick. So a score of 1 means that I have little to no confidence, and a score of 5 is one I would place a decent wager on. I keep track of my record and my points back from year to year. Here are this year's results so far. I've made the most on Stanford and Iowa State. Eastern Michigan, Indiana, Washington, and Northwestern have hurt me the most, for what it's worth.
CFB Betting Picks Overview
As we all know, this is not an exact science. Due to the volatile nature of betting in general, this is for entertainment purposes only. I cannot be responsible for the loss of money, possessions, spouses, or limbs because of my picks. I am a simple man. I can't have that on my conscience.
I will be going to the betting window with all of you as well. Most of these I won't actually wager on at the casinos, but I have been known to stagger around 50 games in a week at various online places just because I love the action. Whatever your betting limits or needs, I can at least give you which way I'm leaning.
CFB Betting Picks for Week 14 (12/2)
(10)Kansas State vs. (3)TCU(-2.5) at Jerry World
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
TCU could walk from their campus to Jerry World, so this is pretty much another home game for them. They beat K-State in Fort Worth about six weeks ago. That was the game where Adrian Martinez got injured and the Will Howard legend began. He had a good game in the loss. Martinez got hurt on the first drive, so he got a full dose of the TCU defense in this game. I feel like this line is still low. Kansas State has said that Howard will start no matter the status of Martinez. It will be interesting to see what wrinkle Martinez adds, but I'm not sure it's enough. This is destiny for the Toadies. How else do we explain all the close wins? Give me TCU.
Toledo(-1.5) vs. Ohio at Detroit
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
Again, this Ohio defense is being underestimated. I like Toledo. I really do. However, Bryant Koback isn't coming back into that running back room. Their inability to run the ball is a problem and Sieh Bangura and CJ Harris were capable of picking up the slack from the injury to Kurtis Rourke. Ohio is still the better team. Give me the Bobcats.
Coastal Carolina at Troy(-8.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
The only real question is: will Kimani Vidal run for 200+ yards again? I would say there's better than a puncher's chance. This Troy offense isn't always efficient, so I'm not a big fan of a spread more than a touchdown with them, but CCU is having major issues without Grayson McCall. I'll take Troy.
(14)LSU vs. (1)Georgia(-18.5) at Atlanta
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This is basically a road game for the Tigers, but this feels like an overcorrection for the A&M loss. Look, losing to A&M may feel bad considering how much of a mess the Aggies have been this year, but they have the talent. How bad is that loss, really? This feels high to me. I expect a Georgia win, but more like 10 points instead of 20. Give me LSU.
(22)Central Florida at (18)Tulane(-3.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
UCF beat the Wave in New Orleans less than a month ago. I do think that Tulane learned a lot from that game. If they run Tyjae Spears more, it will be a problem for UCF. I tend to think that Tulane was a little vanilla in that game on purpose thinking there might be a rematch, but they weren't guaranteed a spot in the Championship at that time. I doubt that's true. Still, the ineffectiveness of John Rhys Plumlee – and second-half benchings in the last two weeks – have me leaning towards Tulane here. I'm following my gut this time.
Fresno State at Boise State(-3.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Boise waxed Fresno here in early October and the line is only -3.5. I was honestly hoping it would be higher due to that. Vegas knows the same thing that I do: Fresno is a different team with Jake Haener. Is it worth 20 points? That I don't know. I still like Fresno outright in this one. Boise's defense can be had from time to time. I'm taking the Bulldogs to salvage something from this season. The team was a serious mess (see: losing to UConn) with Haener out. This is some sort of redemption.
Purdue vs. (2)Michigan(-16.5) at Indianapolis
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This is almost a home game for Purdue, but will it really matter? We all know how much of a mess the Big Ten(14) West was, right? It feels like Purdue might be able to compete, and I kind of think that Jim Harbaugh is going to hold back in this one. Michigan is likely in the playoff anyway. I'm not saying that they're going to lose this game; I just don't know if they'll put a huge effort into covering this. They'll be plenty content to win by 10-14 points. Give me Michigan, but I'm likely leaving this one alone.
(9)Clemson(-7.5) vs. (23)North Carolina at Charlotte
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Charlotte may be in North Carolina, but the Clemson campus is closer to Charlotte than UNC is. Not by much, but it is. This is a tough one. Both teams looked lousy last week, and for the Tarheels, it was the second week in a row. With all of the promise Drake Maye showed this season, these last two weeks have been a stark reminder that he is still a freshman. That said, I think he's learning from his mistakes. Josh Downs is more than capable of getting behind the Clemson secondary. I don't see UNC losing this by two scores. Give me the Tarheels.
I'm living in the middle in this truncated week. I have four each of the two and three-point bets. I have three on the four-line, but I didn't max out any. I seriously considered it, and I might still with the Ohio game. I need to go 11-0. Wish me luck!
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