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Mike's CFB betting picks against the spread for Week 10 (11/5/22). Every FBS college football game analyzed with his top wagers and NCAA best bets.
We have a monster Saturday this week with 51 games going on. Part of me wants to rejoice that I have the chance to make up a lot more ground, but let's be realistic. I have soiled my family name and robbed my piggy bank this year. It has been a rough go of it, but I feel like I like a lot of the lines this week. Hopefully that's a good thing.
I will fill you in on what's going to happen this year. I will pick every college football game every week. Not a top five. Not a top ten. All of them. Big deal, right? Lots of people make picks. Well, I do them all against the spread. I take the odds of each game and average them out at all the Vegas casinos and round to the nearest half. There will be no ties here. Ties are for the other (European) football.
I also assign a point value based on the confidence I have in each pick. So a score of 1 means that I have little to no confidence, and a score of 5 is one I would place a decent wager on. I keep track of my record and my points back from year to year. Here are this year's results so far. What I learned from looking at this is that I really need to leave Eastern Michigan the hell alone!
CFB Betting Picks Overview
As we all know, this is not an exact science. Due to the volatile nature of betting in general, this is for entertainment purposes only. I cannot be responsible for the loss of money, possessions, spouses, or limbs because of my picks. I am a simple man. I can't have that on my conscience.
I will be going to the betting window with all of you as well. Most of these I won't actually wager on at the casinos, but I have been known to stagger around 50 games in a week at various online places just because I love the action. Whatever your betting limits or needs, I can at least give you which way I'm leaning.
CFB Betting Picks for Week 10 (11/5)
Air Force(-7.5) vs. Army at Arlington, TX
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I really don't like that half. I'm much more comfortable with the under 40.5 bet, but we only do spreads here. I liked it a lot better when it opened at -5.5, but the inconsistency at QB for Army still has me going with Air Force.
(2)Ohio State(-38.5) at Northwestern
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
This is too low. The Northwestern offense is a little better, but this defense can't stop the run. TreVeyon Henderson is in for a huge game, especially if Miyan Williams is out.
Texas Tech at (7)TCU(-8.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
I tend to think that TCU's defense is at least as good as Baylor's, if not better. This feels really low. TCU by three touchdowns!
(17)North Carolina(-7.5) at Virginia
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
The Virginia defense has been pretty good, but that offense is putrid. It shouldn't be, but it is. Carolina should win this by at least two touchdowns. Drake Maye is going to be a star by the time he's eligible for the NFL Draft in two and a half years.
(19)Tulane(-7.5) at Tulsa
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Is Tulsa really as bad as they looked last week? I tend to think they aren't, but it's hard to push that image aside. Give me Tulane.
Kentucky(-1.5) at Missouri
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I was hoping that Vegas was going to have this line larger than a field goal, but no such luck. Let's not forget that Kentucky has been getting whipped by SEC elites. They Didn't have Will Levis for the South Carolina game, so I'm not counting that. I think this is maybe a bit too low. This is going to be a tough and low-scoring game, but I still like Kentucky for under 3. Give me the Wildcats.
Florida at Texas A&M(-3.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
Conner Weigman at 19 years old and not even two games of experience is better than anyone Florida has had under center for the last two years. Give me A&M. This is too low.
Minnesota(-15.5) at Nebraska
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Nebraska is still having issues stopping the run, but this feels a little high. There is still no word on whether Casey Thompson will play for Nebraska or not. If he doesn't, I'm raising the bet to 4 points. Otherwise, I'm still taking Minnesota because of their ability to run the ball, but halving the wager.
Iowa at Purdue(-3.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
I can't fault this line. Iowa's offense looked respectable against Northwestern, but looks are deceiving. Give me Purdue at home.
Maryland at Wisconsin(-4.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Taulia Tagovailoa says that he's starting against the Badgers, so I'm more than a little surprised that Wisconsin is still favored. They are better since the firing of Paul Chryst, but a couple more weeks of the mostly stagnant offense have me thinking that a drastic improvement isn't in the cards until the offseason. I'll take Maryland.
Western Kentucky(-15.5) at Charlotte
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Charlotte played their best game of the season last week against Rice less than a week after firing their coach. That has me a little apprehensive. Charlotte will be able to score some points here. WKU just gave up 40 to North Texas last week. Meanwhile, the Hilltoppers haven't scored more than 35 points since they set a school record against FIU five games ago. I have to take Charlotte. I don't think they win, but I do think they'll score enough to make this interesting.
Georgia Tech at Virginia Tech(-2.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I think some countries make prisoners watch this game on repeat as torture. I've lost enough points on the Hokies this year, but wow, this looks low. I have to take Tech at home.
South Florida(-3.5) at Temple
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
The Owls are steadily improving, but have they improved enough? After they hung with Tulsa for most of three quarters, I think so. Gerry Bohanon isn't walking through that door anytime soon for the Bulls. Katravis Marsh will have to do it himself. He hasn't thrown an interception yet, but he hasn't been all that accurate either. I'll take Temple, but I'm leaving this one alone.
Marshall(-2.5) at Old Dominion
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
The Marshall offense has bogged down lately and the Monarchs have some guy named Ali Jennings that nearly has 1,000 receiving yards already. I'll take the Monarchs at home.
Baylor at Oklahoma(-3.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
Is Oklahoma getting this just because they're a name? I firmly believe that the defense looks improved because we played Kansas and Iowa State. Baylor runs the ball very well and we still miss more tackles than I miss picks. I'm a fan, but I'm not that blind. After what the Bears' defense did to Tech last week, in Lubbock no less, this is a losable game for Oklahoma. I love you, Sooners, but I think I have to take Baylor. Show me something against a good offense and maybe I'll believe again.
Georgia State at Southern Mississippi(-2.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
Frank Gore Jr. is the entire offense. If some team can figure out how to stop him, the Eagles are sunk. I'll take Southern Miss, but I'm staying far away from this one.
Middle Tennessee State(-2.5) at Louisiana Tech
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
The MTSU offense looks a whole lot better than the Bulldogs right now. Give me the Blue Raiders to invade Ruston and leave with the W.
(1)Tennessee at (3)Georgia(-8.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
If the difference between 1 and 3 is really this much, then why are we even playing? I still like Tennessee outright, so I'm taking advantage of this line. There's a lot of juice on the Vols, but I'm comfortable teasing this line down a ways. At worst the Vols lose by a touchdown.
(8)Oregon(-31.5) at Colorado
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Wow, that's a lot of points. A lot of points in Boulder. The Colorado offense has improved a lot in the last three weeks or so. They'll never be in danger of winning, but this should stay within 20. I'll take the Ralphies.
(15)Penn State(-13.5) at Indiana
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Penn State should cover this. I know it's easy to forget the progress they've made when they play Michigan and Ohio State within three weeks. I'll take Penn State.
Michigan State at (16)Illinois(-16.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Wow, that's a lot of points. However, the Illini covered that spread in Lincoln and in Madison, not to mention against Wyoming and Virginia. That loss to Indiana was an aberration. I'll take the Illini.
(18)Oklahoma State at Kansas(EVEN)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This line has dropped quickly from -6 for the Pokes. To me, that means Vegas thinks that Jalon Daniels is playing and Spencer Sanders is not. If you look hard enough, you can still find OSU favored by 1 or 2. Kansas is now favored in most places by 1. I'm as torn as the bettors are. I tend to think this is an overreaction to the Pokes getting demolished, also in the state of Kansas, last week. That said, the status of Daniels and Sanders is very important. The Jayhawks are a different team with Daniels out there. Give me Okie State, but I'm likely not betting this.
(20)Syracuse at Pittsburgh(-3.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Israel Abanikanda is a great back, but the Syracuse run defense has been solid and I know Kedon Slovis can't throw well enough to win this. Give me the Orange.
(25)Central Florida(-3.5) at Memphis
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
This seems legit whether John Rhys Plumlee can go or not. UCF has athletes all over the offense. I'll take the Knights.
Washington State(-4.5) at Stanford
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
The Stanford defense got abused by UCLA, but I'm not sure Wazzu can run the ball well enough to work them over like the Bruins did. That said, Stanford is down about a half-dozen running backs and their offense doesn't always work. I'll take the Cougars.
West Virginia at Iowa State(-7.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
The Iowa State defense is good, but more than one score? I don't know if I trust the offense that much. I guess I do. The Mountaineers have struggled on the road. I'm lowering the bet because of that half though.
New Mexico at Utah State(-14.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
I thought this was high until I saw that Cooper Legas is back. It doesn't feel like it now. Give me the Aggies.
UTSA at UAB(EVEN)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
Another even line? I've even seen this one at -0.5 for both teams, which is very unusual. It's not really a question for me. That UTSA offense is outstanding. Give me the Roadrunners.
Liberty at Arkansas(-14.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This feels at least half a point high. Liberty won't win this, but I get the feeling they're going to hang around longer than is comfortable for the Hogs. Give me Liberty.
Navy at Cincinnati(-18.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I have seen nothing from the Cincinnati defense that says they can get and hold this big of a lead against anyone. Give me Navy.
South Alabama(-3.5) at Georgia Southern
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
I feel comfortable with the Jags by around a touchdown. Having the running game moving again behind La'Damian Webb is a huge boost.
Florida International at North Texas(-20.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
With the way UNT looked last week against the Hilltoppers and the improvement of Austin Aune, I feel pretty good about taking the Mean Green here. It feels weird...
Troy(-3.5) at Louisiana
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
That Troy defense has bordered on dominant in Sun Belt play. That's not changing here. Give me the Trojans.
Texas State at Louisiana-Monroe(-1.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
What do you do when two notorious spread-busters meet head-to-head? You take the home team and stay the hell away from the betting window.
(6)Alabama(-13.5) at (10)LSU
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
I know a lot of pundits are touting this as an upset, but does Jayden Daniels really have enough of a deep arm to get to that Bama secondary? Does LSU have that one receiver like Jalin Hyatt that can keep getting open? I think the answer to both of those is no. However, I still don't see Bama walking into Death Valley at night and beating LSU by two touchdowns. Give me the Tigers.
(24)Texas(-2.5) at Kansas State
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
Ask Oklahoma State just how inviting the Little Apple is in the fall. I still like K-State outright. Quinn Ewers struggled in his first road game. I think he struggles in his second as well.
BYU at Boise State(-7.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
Boise covered this line in Provo last year and had a worse team than they do now. This Boise backfield is looking really good of late and the Cougars have allowed over six yards per carry in the last couple of weeks. Boise wins BIG!
UNLV at San Diego State(-6.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
I know that SDSU blowing that lead to Fresno is going to hurt, but they controlled that game for the first 57 minutes. UNLV doesn't stand a chance with Jalen Mayden leading the show. This is way too low!
Houston at SMU(-2.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
I was hoping that Vegas was still buying the Houston charade. It doesn't look like they are. SMU can win with Tanner Mordecai or Preston Stone. The offense hasn't really missed a beat. Give me the Ponies at home.
(4)Clemson(-3.5) at Notre Dame
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Dabo is willing to pull D.J. Uiagalelei if he has to. I just don't see the Irish moving the ball like they did on the Orange. Give me Clemson.
(5)Michigan(-25.5) at Rutgers
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Michigan should trample the Knights into the New Jersey dirt. Give me Michigan.
Arizona at (14)Utah(-17.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
This is too many with the way the Wildcats' offense has been playing. We have no earthy idea who is playing for Utah, and with the line this high, I don't really care. Give me Arizona.
Auburn at Mississippi State(-12.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This line seems fair. Bryan Harsin was finally fired and Robby Ashford had his best game last week. I'm dialing it back a little, but I still like the Bulldogs.
South Carolina(-6.5) at Vanderbilt
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
I was hoping Vegas would give the Gamecocks a little more. This is a winnable game for Vandy and most books feel the same way. There's not a lot of juice on the side of the Commodores. I'll take Vandy, but I don't have a lot of confidence in it. This is more a bet that Spencer Rattler will make a critical turnover at a critical time than anything else.
James Madison at Louisville(-7.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
James Madison probably won't turn it over like Wake did, but this Cardinals defense has to be feeling really good right now. This is too low. Cardinals by double digits.
Florida State(-7.5) at Miami(FL)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
The only thing that is working right now for Miami is the defense, but Jordan Travis and those Florida State receivers have everything that Virginia does not right now. First and foremost being an offensive playbook that actually highlights the strengths of the offense. What a concept! Give me Florida State. They can take the top off of the Hurricanes' secondary.
(21)Wake Forest(-3.5) at (22)North Carolina State
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I was a lot more impressed with MJ Morris than Sam Hartman last week. The Pack won't be able to turn over Wake like that, but with Morris, this offense moved the ball pretty well. I'll take the Wolfpack in Raleigh.
California at (9)USC(-21.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This feels like too many based on what I've seen from the USC defense over the last month. Cal won't win, but this stays around 14-17 points.
(12)UCLA(-10.5) at Arizona State
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
The quarterback change went well for Sparky, but unless they can control Zach Charbonnet, this game is going to get ugly. I really don't like that half, but I think I'm still taking UCLA.
Colorado State at San Jose State(-24.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
This feels a whole lot like last week. The difference is that the Nevada defense has been a couple of notches above horrible this year. Colorado State's is not. I'll take the Spartans, but I'm not touching this one.
Hawaii at Fresno State(-27.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
Hawaii is similar to the San Diego State team that nearly knocked off Fresno last week. Braden Schager is still too inaccurate to count on in this offense, but Hawaii has shown a willingness to run the ball and the defense has been solid. I'll take the Warriors.
I dabbled a little more in the middle this week. My eight one-point bets are commonplace right now. I have a season-high 27 on the two line. I was back up to 15 three-point bets. I only put four on the four line, but I maxed out a season-high six. It's time to put something back in the bank!
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