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Mike's top college football betting picks and best bets for today's CFB games on 11/5/21 (Week 10). His free picks and top wagers against the spread for every FBS game.
It was another crazy week! Georgia blows out Florida to firmly establish their dominance. A couple of other top-five teams came up with big wins to prove they belong since number 3 Alabama was off this week.
We saw Wake Forest putting up video game numbers once again. Virginia and BYU blew up the scoreboard in Provo. Texas blew another late lead to snatch defeat from victory. The Oklahoma offense finally looked like they should. Kansas is back to being doormat. Oregon's close out ability comes into question again as they allow 29 points to a bad Colorado team.
We have eight of the 61 games this weekend before Saturday. I'll get those covered before we get in depth into the carnage of last week. Two teams are stepping outside of FBS for games this week, so I have 59 total to pick. Tuesday's and Wednesday's were in with the DFS picks. The three for Thursday and Friday are here.
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CFB Betting Picks 11/5:
Virginia Tech(-2.5) at Boston College
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I was not expecting this. The Hokies looked the part against Georgia Tech last week and I have no doubt they can shut down Dennis Grosel. The rushing attack should be enough against BC, but I'm done letting the Hokies take much of my money. I'm lowering the bet.
Utah(-7.5) at Stanford
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
Has Vegas been watching the same games that I have? Utah is hitting their stride right now and the Cardinal are having issues on both sides of the ball. Give me Utah by around triple this line!
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CFB Betting Picks Week 9 Results:
I promised transparency this year, and you will get it, warts and all. I feel like I had a pretty solid week. I put about 3/4 of my betting for the week on Ohio State, so I came out well in real life. I don't like to be wrong, but I will admit when I am. Here are the results from week 6. I picked 51 games and all 51 played. Winners against the spread will be in bold. My result will follow.
Troy at (24)Coastal Carolina(-17.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Kimani Vidal had a nice game for Troy. Jaivon Heiligh had yet another 100-yard game for Coastal. Just another day at the office for Heiligh as CCU gets back into the top 25.
South Florida at East Carolina(-9.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Timmy McClain was warming up with the first team, so it was all systems go for DFS and my bet. USF had other ideas....
Navy at Tulsa(-10.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Navy needed a game like this for their defense. Surprisingly enough, this was the first time the Middies held an opponent under 20 points this season.
UNLV at Nevada(-20.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
The home of the Fremont Cannon for the next year was never in doubt.
(2)Cincinnati(-26.5) at Tulane: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
I will be a little surprised if Cincinnati is in the top four of the first College Football Playoff rankings with another lackluster performance. The Indiana and UCF wins don't look nearly as good as they did at the time and Notre Dame was six weeks ago. The committee has a short memory.
(6)Michigan(-3.5) at (8)Michigan State: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This was one of the better games of the week. Michigan has to be upset. Maybe not about the blown lead to their perceived little brother, but maybe because Kenneth Walker III set all kinds of series records with his five rushing touchdowns.
(9)Iowa at Wisconsin(-3.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
I knew better. Iowa might be the biggest piece of pyrite in this year's rock collection.
Texas at (16)Baylor(-2.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Another week, another blown lead for Texas. Baylor's defense did a good job on Bijan Robinson, especially in the second half.
Miami(FL) at (17)Pittsburgh(-9.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I don't know who needs to hear this, but Tyler Van Dyke is a better fit for this team than D'Eriq King. I've long been a fan of King and his ability, but Miami needs a guy that throws accurate deep passes. That has never really been King's strong suit. Xavier Restrepo is going to break out in a big way over the last month.
Virginia Tech at Georgia Tech(-4.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
The Hokies have to be pleased with the performance of Tre Turner. The Wreck? Still learning not to be an option team, I guess.
Rutgers(-1.5) at Illinois: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Hmmm.....maybe Penn State really is that bad. Think USC still wants James Franklin after the last couple of weeks? I have my doubts.
Indiana at Maryland(-5.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
College football is more fun when we have a Tagovailoa still putting up huge numbers. Indiana is a team of fighters, but you can only do so much when you can't cover Carlos Carriere. The Turtles finally have their replacement for Dontay Demus.
Massachusetts at Liberty(-36.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Maybe UMass should take a page from North Dakota State. Just because you can do something – like making the jump from FCS to FBS, for instance – doesn't mean you should.....
Central Florida(-10.5) at Temple: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Easy money. I should have went higher on this. It wasn't just the UCF run game either. Mikey Keene threw for five touchdowns and only had six incompletions the entire game.
Bowling Green at Buffalo(-13.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Who doesn't love MACtion? 100 combined points in this one. I think Terion Stewart is still running circles around the Buffalo "defense."
Texas State at Louisiana(-21.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
This is the defensive performance that we knew the Cajuns had in them. Their lack of a consistent run game has to be of some concern though. The Cajuns have lived by running the ball for the last two decades or so.
(22)Iowa State(-7.5) at West Virginia: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
The Mountaineers were content to let Breece Hall run at will. They weren't going to let Brock Purdy beat them though. Interesting strategy, but it worked.
North Texas at Rice(-2.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Man, this was a rough game to watch. Especially if you're a Rice fan.
Missouri(-16.5) at Vanderbilt: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
I have no more delusions that Missouri is good. Tyler Badie had another monster performance (31 carries, 254 yards, two touchdowns), but Vanderbilt was in this game until the end. Even Vanderbilt was able to run the ball on these guys. The Tigers still have Georgia, South Carolina, Florida, and Arkansas on the schedule. They could allow 1500 rushing yards in those four games with the way those teams run the ball.
Washington State at Arizona State(-16.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Wazzu controlled this game from the beginning. The loss of Rachaad White was big for Arizona State, but their RB depth is well known. The inability of Jayden Daniels to take care of the ball is a real problem. Early in the season I chalked it up to sloppy play. This was far more than sloppy. The Sun Devils were flat out dominated at home for three quarters.
Hawaii at Utah State(-5.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Hawaii on the mainland, especially with a kickoff time that is roughly 7 am on the islands, was easy money. Well played, Aggies.
(1)Georgia(-14.5) vs. Florida at Jacksonville: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Uh......that Georgia/Alabama SEC Championship is going to be a doozy, huh? I haven't seen one team that can touch Georgia yet. I have my doubts that Bama can.
Texas Tech at (4)Oklahoma(-19.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
We needed that. This was the first time that the Oklahoma offense has really looked good this year. Of course, the Red Raiders gave up 70 to Texas, so I can't put too much stock into it. It still feels good going into the bye though.
Colorado at (7)Oregon(-24.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Covering is no fun! The Ducks have decided that they just don't want to do it anymore. That's the only way to explain that fourth quarter lapse.
Florida International at Marshall(-21.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
This was quite a showing by the Marshall defense.
Louisiana Tech(-4.5) at Old Dominion: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
It's not like the Bulldogs were playing well before Austin Kendall went down. His loss made sure the Monarchs got their first win against a FBS opponent since November 10 of 2018. This one hurt the ol' pocketbook. What did Vegas know and when did they know it?
Southern Mississippi at Middle Tennessee State(-13.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Frank Gore Jr. is toiling away on a really bad team right now. Just like Brenden Rice. I would really like to see what kind of talent they have, but it's hard with the situations those two are currently in.
Florida State at Clemson(-9.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
This was pure luck. This was looking like a lost cause all game long. It took a fumble recovery for a touchdown while Florida State was lateraling it around to cover. I'll take it, but it was by no stroke of genius. This one was pure luck.
Boston College at Syracuse(-6.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Who needs to throw when you have Sean Tucker? Boston College's Dennis Grosel led all passers in this game with 93 yards. What year is this again?
Minnesota(-7.5) at Northwestern: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Yep, Minnesota has another running back. It was Mar'Kiese Irving running for 110 this week. Who will it be next week?
Purdue at Nebraska(-7.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
I hate Nebraska, even more than usual. I'm 1-7 picking those pack of jackasses this year. The only one I got right was Northwestern. Scott Frost's loyalty to Adrian Martinez is more than a little creepy. Any decent coach would have yanked Martinez after that third interception just to see if the backup could spark the offense. It would be different if this weren't a weekly occurrence.
TCU at Kansas State(-3.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Wow, can you believe this is still a Gary Patterson defense? It might be the worst one he's ever had.
Louisiana-Monroe at Appalachian State(-27.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Appalachian was up by 42 points at halftime, so I owe them one for not playing the starters in the second half.
Duke at (13)Wake Forest(-16.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
Duke's claim to fame this season is that they aren't worse than Kansas. They are far and away the worst team in the ACC though. This was a monster game for Sam Hartman. If only they could give the Heisman to someone that doesn't play for Alabama, Clemson, Oklahoma, or Ohio State....
Charlotte at Western Kentucky(17.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
I'm pretty sure that 393 passing yards for Bailey Zappe counts as a disappointment at this point. All kidding aside, nothing was a disappointment for the Hilltoppers in this one.
Wyoming at San Jose State(-2.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
No Starkel, no problem! Nick Nash had one of his better games even though the Spartans couldn't tackle Xazavian Valladay and made this much harder than it needed to be.
Arkansas State at South Alabama(-8.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
To the surprise of absolutely no one, former South Carolina QB Jake Bentley carved up the Red Wolves. The South Alabama offense looks good. The defense did in this one, but it was an aberration.
UTEP at Florida Atlantic(-10.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
A fourth quarter flurry got this close for the Miners, but they fell just short. I should have just taken UTEP anyway since I was pulling for them to pull the upset.
Georgia State(-5.5) at Georgia Southern: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
The Eagles dominated almost every statistical category, but it was Jamyest Williams ripping their hearts out with a 23-yard score with 26 seconds left. Even though it wasn't pretty on either side, this is exactly what a rivalry game is supposed to be like.
(10)Mississippi at (18)Auburn(-2.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I don't think the result would have been any different even if Matt Corral weren't hobbled. This Auburn defense played a really strong game.
(12)Kentucky at Mississippi State(EVEN): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
I should have known that if Kentucky fell behind they were going to be in trouble. This was looking good for about 18 minutes or so....
Kansas at (15)Oklahoma State(-30.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
For the life of me I can't figure out how Kansas can look like a team on the rise one week, then completely collapse into a heap of UConn the very next week. It's going to be a long road for Lance Leipold, but I do like him to turn this around since the boosters will give him a few years to figure it out.
(19)SMU at Houston(EVEN): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
Why oh why did you morons kick to Marcus Jones, especially with the game on the line? There's really no excuse for that kind of lapse. It's like they didn't watch a single scouting report.
Oregon State(-1.5) at California: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
After a strong showing early on Saturday, the Pac 12 unraveled me. This was just the beginning. This was not a good look for the Beavers.
Arizona at USC(-20.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Apparently this was the week for Will Plummer to look like a real live quarterback. Arizona has some talent and they might be starting to put it together. Then again, USC is the worst talent-laden team I've seen in quite some time. That might have something to do with it.....
Boise State(-2.5) at Colorado State: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Boise didn't give up on the run when they got down early like they have for much of the season. That made all the difference in this game. George Holani is still nowhere near his peak, but the Broncos still find themselves in the thick of the chase in the Mountain division.
(20)Penn State at (5)Ohio State(-18.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
This doesn't sour me on the Buckeyes. I think they played an overall strong game. This was just one of those games where Penn State decided to show up. It wasn't just Sean Clifford playing well. This defense looked like it did against Auburn for the first time since.....well.....Auburn.
North Carolina at (11)Notre Dame(-3.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
I don't feel like the Irish played a particularly strong game, but that's the North Carolina defense for you. Kyren Williams ran wild and Sam Howell made a really bad decision when it mattered a lot.
Louisville at North Carolina State(-6.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I never would have guessed this game would hit the under and I played my DFS lineups accordingly. Not the best decision. It took a monster fourth quarter from the home team to steal this from Louisville. Devin Leary tossed three touchdowns in the final stanza to pull away.
UCLA at Utah(-6.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
You can't blame this on Ethan Garbers. He showed that the UCLA program will still be fine when DTR moves on. UCLA's inability to stop Tavion Thomas was the difference here.
Virginia at (25)BYU(-2.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
Apparently even Tyler Allgeier is explosive against the Hoos. Brennan Armstrong leaving the game didn't help, but the Virginia defense couldn't stop BYU at any point. The Hoos would have lost – and broken my heart and pocketbook – anyway. This is on the defense......again.
Fresno State at (21)San Diego State(EVEN): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
Ronnie who? Jordan Mims has added another dimension to this Fresno State offense. I'm a fan of Ronnie Rivers, but I will admit that this team is much better with Mims. It's going to be an interesting finish in the Mountain West.
Washington at Stanford(-2.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
This was without a doubt the worst game that Stanford has played all year. That includes the K-State game. This was also by far the best game the Washington defense has played. I knew that there was no way that the defense for Washington could be as bad as they were the whole season. I just didn't think they would flip the switch here.
College Football Betting Season Results:
I am somewhat disappointed in my 27-26 record this week, but it was my second straight week with my head above water and it puts me at 235-239 on the season. That's not where I want to be, but I'm getting closer. The Pac 12 hurt my bottom line this week, but I think I still came out ahead. Let's find out!
Now it's time to tally up the points. The weekly totals follow the bet. Season totals are in parentheses.
1. 2-6 (34-51) = -17
2. 13-8 (92-94) = -4
3. 8-7 (79-51) = 84
4. 3-3 (18-28) = -40
5. 1-2 (12-15) = -15
I ended up gaining four more points on the week. I'll take it after three consecutive losing weeks in September. I doubles my season's winnings, putting me up to eight points on the season. I am up 36 points total over four and a half seasons. We have a big week this week with MACtion starting. There are 61 total games this week, but BYU and UMass are slumming down in FCS. That gives me 59 games to pick this week. Stay tuned!
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