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Mike's top college football betting picks and best bets for today's CFB games on 11/27/21 (Week 13). His free picks and top wagers against the spread for every FBS game.
It is with great disappointment that we have come to the last big college football day of the year. Sure, we still have conference championship week. We still have Army-Navy. We still have the Heisman (YAWN!). What we don't have is another day of 40 college football games! We'll have 40 spread out over two weeks from the middle of December into January. I'll be with you through those with all of the spread picks and DFS picks, but this is the last bash. The last day with a lot of action. Let's make the most of it!
I will fill you in on what's going to happen this year. I will pick every college football game every week. Not a top five. Not a top ten. All of them. Big deal, right? Lots of people make picks. Well, I do them all against the spread. I take the odds of each game and average them out at all the Vegas casinos and round to the nearest half. There will be no ties here. Ties are for the other (European) football.
I also assign a point value based on the confidence I have in each pick. So a score of 1 means that I have little to no confidence, and a score of 5 is one I would place a decent wager on. I keep track of my record and my points back from year to year.
CFB Betting Picks Overview
As we all know, this is not an exact science. Due to the volatile nature of betting in general, this is for entertainment purposes only. I cannot be responsible for the loss of money, possessions, spouses, or limbs because of my picks. I am a simple man. I can't have that on my conscience.
(1)Georgia(-35.5) at Georgia Tech
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I'm pretty sure that the Wreck is wrecked. Give me Georgia. After all, Notre Dame covered this.
(2)Ohio State(-7.5) at Michigan
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
Is Harbaugh over that hump? With the way Ohio State looked last weekend, no chance. Michigan's schedule was almost as soft as my midsection. Give me the Buckeyes.
Texas Tech at (8)Baylor(-14.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
If Gerry Bohanon is out, this line feels a touch high. I do believe in the Baylor defense though. Give me Baylor
(18)Wake Forest(-4.5) at Boston College
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Boston College is going to get their points because that's what Wake does. They give up a ton of them. I'm still not sure that the BC offense can keep up. Sam Hartman and those receivers are going to be too much for the Eagles defense. Give me Wake.
(24)Houston(-32.5) at Connecticut
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
UConn continues to prove just how bad they are. Give me Houston.
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Florida State at Florida(-2.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This line opened up at -10. I still think the wrong team is favored. Florida State is actually playing well right now, especially on defense. The Gators haven't played well since being embarrassed by the Tide. Give me FSU outright!
Maryland(-1.5) at Rutgers
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
This is a bit ridiculous. Rutgers has only scored 198 points in 11 games. 61 of those were against Temple and 45 were against Delaware. That leaves 92 points for the other nine games. I have a feeling Maryland runs off with this behind Taulia Tagovailoa. Give me the Turtles.
Army at Liberty(-3.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Malik Willis is going to be a problem, but the option is going to be more of one. I'll take Army outright.
Navy(-12.5) at Temple
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
This actually feels low. Navy might score on every possession. Give me the Middies.
Miami(OH)(-1.5) at Kent State
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
Kent will likely blow this in the second half. I'll take the Redhawks.
Akron at Toledo(-28.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
That's a lot of points, but Akron got smoked by Kent last weekend. I'll take the Rockets at home.
Miami(FL)(-21.5) at Duke
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
If you've been unfortunate enough to watch Duke in the last month or so like I have, you know they're getting covered. Give me Miami.
Louisiana Tech(-3.5) at Rice
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
This feels like a gift. This feel like an overreaction to the Bulldogs losing to Southern Miss. The Eagles just finally learned how to use the players they have. I'm taking the Bulldogs for anything under a touchdown.
(22)UTSA(-10.5) at North Texas
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This is a tough one. The Mean Green are playing better right now, but this UTSA is a veteran unit that isn't going to choke on the ranking. I'll still take UTSA.
Charlotte at Old Dominion(-9.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
I'm finally on the Monarchs to win this, but by double digits? I'm not sure about that. Give me Charlotte. I think they lose, but it will be closer than this.
Texas State at Arkansas State(-2.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Never trust the Bobcats on the road. Give me Arkansas State.
Troy at Georgia State(-6.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
This is going to be a tough one. I also think it's a little bit skewed by Troy getting lit up by Appalachian State last week. Troy's last four games were against the Sun Belt's elite: Coastal Carolina, South Alabama, Louisiana, and the Mountaineers. Then again, Troy has only one won game by double digits and lost outright to Monroe. Give me Georgia State.
Georgia Southern at Appalachian State(-24.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This feels low. App State is rolling!
Florida International at Southern Mississippi(-11.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
That's a lot of points for a team without a quarterback. Then again, Maybe FIU might be better without a quarterback. I'll take the Eagles.
Massachusetts at New Mexico State(-6.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Was UMass hanging with Army a fluke? Probably. Give me the Aggies.
Hawaii at Wyoming(-10.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
If Wyoming is going to run like they did last week, Hawaii has no chance. They are on the mainland as well, and we all know what that means. Cowboy up!
(3)Alabama(-20.5) at Auburn
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
The home team has won five in a row, but that's not happening here. However, this seems awfully high in a rivalry game. Alabama hasn't covered a number like this in Auburn since 2001. The problem is that Bo Nix is still out. Roll Tide!
Oregon State at (11)Oregon(-6.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
This line is half what it opened at. That said, the Beavers have only won ten of these yearly meetings since 1975. Only two of those were in Eugene. I like the Beavers to give Oregon everything they want, but the chances of Oregon winning by a touchdown instead of a field goal are too high for me to put any significant amount on this. Give me Oregon State, but I'm lowering the bet.
Penn State(-1.5) at (12)Michigan State
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
Judging by this line, Vegas doesn't think Kenneth Walker III is going to play in this game. We all know how important he has been to the Spartans. That said, I don't think he sits. Walker looked like he would have been able to return had Ohio State not blown Sparty off the field. No way Penn State wins this in East Lansing. Give me Sparty!
Western Kentucky at Marshall(-1.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Another one that I don't buy. This WKU offense is as hard to stop as it is fun to watch. Hilltoppers straight up!
Northwestern at Illinois(-6.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
Maybe Illinois is a touchdown better than someone, but I sure as hell wouldn't bet on it. Give me Northwestern.
Indiana at Purdue(-15.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
I want to say that this is high, but we all know it's not. Indiana is done. Give me Purdue.
Vanderbilt at Tennessee(-32.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Rivarly or not, the talent level is very far apart right now. Give me Tennessee.
Virginia Tech at Virginia(-6.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
When both defenses are equally bad, I'm riding the stud quarterback. Give me Virginia.
(14)Wisconsin(-7.5) at Minnesota
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
This feels low. Minnesota's defense is solid, but I don't think solid will be enough here. Give me Wisconsin.
Tulsa at SMU(-6.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
I know that SMU is not as bad as Cincinnati made them look. I see a bounceback here. Give me the Ponies.
Louisiana-Monroe at Louisiana(-21.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
I'm not touching this one. Monroe is not a good team, but this is a rivalry and the Cajuns are content to run the ball 60 times. I'll take the Warhawks, but there's no way I would bet this. Not after what Louisiana did to Liberty last week. I'm taking the Cajuns at home.
Arizona at Arizona State(-20.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I don't buy this. The Wildcats are pissed about last year's Territory Cup. I don't think they win outright, but they aren't going to get blown out again either. I like Arizona not to get covered.
(15)Texas A&M(-6.5) at LSU
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Will the Tigers rally around Orgeron and the seniors one more time? Even if they do, this feels low. I'll take A&M.
Middle Tennessee State at Florida Atlantic(-3.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I don't buy this. The Owls haven't notched a W since before Halloween. Give me MTSU outright.
West Virginia(-16.5) at Kansas
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Too high. The Jayhawks just beat Texas in Austin and narrowly lost to TCU in Fort Worth. I wouldn't be shocked if they took out West Virginia at home!
(10)Oklahoma at (7)Oklahoma State(-4.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
This line opened with the Sooners favored. Even in my fandom, I couldn't agree with that. That Oklahoma State defense is going to be a huge problem for a team that can't really move the ball with any consistency right now. I love my team and I want to believe, but this is tough. I'm taking Oklahoma, but there's no way I would bet this.
(17)Pittsburgh(-12.5) at Syracuse
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I would like to see Sean Tucker and the Orange go to a bowl, but I don't think it happens here. Give me Pitt.
(23)Clemson(-12.5) at South Carolina
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This feels high for a rivalry and for a team not facing the Wake Forest defense. Give me the Gamecocks.
Kentucky at Louisville(-2.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Nope. The Kentucky defense is good enough to limit Malik Cunningham, especially when they don't really have to worry about anyone else. I'm not sure Louisville can limit Wan'Dale Robinson. I'll take Kentucky outright.
Tulane at Memphis(-5.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Tulane looked good last week, but Memphis is a tough team. I'm taking the Tigers.
(6)Notre Dame(-20.5) at Stanford
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
This feels a bit high. Then again, Stanford just got trampled by Cal in another rivalry. Do I trust the Irish to do the same? Not really. Give me Stanford.
Nevada(-3.5) at Colorado State
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
The Rams aren't going to be able to stop Carson Strong and all of those receivers. Give me Nevada.
(13)BYU(-6.5) at USC
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
What has USC shown to have anyone believe they wont lose by double this line? They haven't. The Trojans are a hollow name and I'm going to win some money on them again!
California at UCLA(-6.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
This is skewed a bit by Cal trampling Stanford. UCLA's historic beatdown of the Trojans is closer to the truth. I'll take UCLA.
I went big in the mid range in the final week. I have as many three-point bets as twos (24 each). I went lighter on the ones with ten. I ended up with five four-point bets and only two max bets. It's rivalry week. I'm not looking to lose everything that I made back last week.
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