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Mike's CFB betting picks against the spread for Week 3 of the 2023 season (9/16/23). Every FBS college football game analyzed with his top wagers and NCAA best bets.
The last great college football season is underway and Week 2 didn't disappoint! Prime Time won his home opener. Nick Saban suffered his worst home loss as coach of the Tide. Two FBS teams were sniped by FCS opponents. North Carolina needed a miracle (and a pass interference call) to escape Appalachian State again. What does Week 3 have in store for us?
I will pick every college football bowl game. Not a top-five. Not a top-10. All of them. Big deal, right? Lots of people make picks. Well, I do them all against the spread. I take the odds of each game and average them out at all the Vegas casinos and round to the nearest half. There will be no ties here. Ties are for the other (European) football.
I also assign a point value based on the confidence I have in each pick. So a score of 1 means that I have little to no confidence, and a score of 5 is one I would place a decent wager on. I keep track of my record and my points from year to year. Here are the results so far. I didn't gain or lose last week, but anytime you don't lose, it's a win. Please excuse the mess on the right side of the sheet. I am trying to update it to include my cumulative total for as long as I have been doing this with the point betting system. I'm going back through years of past articles and updating as I go along. It will be worth it in the end!
CFB Betting Picks Overview
As we all know, this is not an exact science. Due to the volatile nature of betting in general, this is for entertainment purposes only. I cannot be responsible for the loss of money, possessions, spouses, or limbs because of my picks. I am a simple man. I can't have that on my conscience.
I will be going to the betting window with all of you as well. Most of these I won't actually wager on at the casinos, but I have been known to stagger around 50 games in a week at various online places just because I love the action. Whatever your betting limits or needs, I can at least give you which way I'm leaning.
CFB Betting Picks for 2023 Week 3 (September 16, 2023)
(3) Florida State (-26.5) at Boston College
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
This is a lot of points, but BC lost to a Northern Illinois team in Week 1 that just lost to FCS Southern Illinois and nearly lost to Holy Cross in Week 2. I have to think Florida State covers this.
(7) Penn State (-14.5) at Illinois
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
That half is keeping me from going higher on this. Kansas nearly covered this line last weekend in Lawrence, but the Illini are usually tougher in Champaign. The problem is that Penn State is far more talented at nearly every position. Give me Penn State.
(14) LSU (-9.5) at Mississippi State
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Mississippi State won't be able to force the turnovers that they did against Arizona last week. I'll take the Tigers.
(15) Kansas State (-3.5) at Missouri
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
Kansas State & Missouri will meet for the 99th time this Saturday.
Kansas State hasn't won in Columbia since 2004.
Who wins - Wildcats or Tigers? pic.twitter.com/kIHb3aKcRb
— CFB • Matchup Info (@MatchupTracker) September 13, 2023
Vegas is drinking that SEC Kool-Aid, huh? Missouri was fortunate to beat Middle Tennessee State last week. Kansas State walloped the team with the second-longest winning streak in the country. K-State wins BIG!
Liberty (-3.5) at Buffalo
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
? @FORDHAMFOOTBALL picks up third win all-time over FBS program pic.twitter.com/P07ZmUo4oX
— Fordham Athletics (@FordhamRams) September 10, 2023
The Bulls just lost to the Rams. Not the Los Angeles Rams. Not even the Colorado State Rams. The Fordham Rams. Give me Liberty (or give me death!)
Louisville (-10.5) vs. Indiana at Indianapolis
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
This is too many. Louisville almost lost to Georgia Tech in Week 0. I didn't forget. Give me the Hoosiers.
Georgia Southern at Wisconsin (-19.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
Davis Brin is a solid quarterback and I'm not as impressed by the Wisconsin defense as I would be if the Buffalo team that they struggled with didn't just lose to Fordham. This feels high. Give me the Eagles.
Wake Forest (-14.5) at Old Dominion
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This line is down to 14 in most places, but a couple still have it where it opened. There's some money coming in on the Monarchs and there should be. Wake hasn't looked overly impressive against either Elon or Vanderbilt. I don't know that ODU wins this, but they aren't going to lose by more than two touchdowns at home. Give me the Monarchs.
Iowa State (-3.5) at Ohio
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
To put it another way, Iowa State is 6-0 against the spread under Matt Campbell in the game following the CyHawk game. Being 3-point favorites against a team they beat by 33 points last season is candy.
— Alex Gookin (@_AlexGookin) September 14, 2023
I am well aware of the Cyclones' success after the CyHawk under Matt Campbell. This is also the worst team they have had in those seven years. Something conveniently ignored in that Tweet is that Sieh Bangura wasn't the starting running back for Ohio in that game – Nolan McCormick was. Bangura still carried eight times for 28 yards, but this game was dominated by Hunter Dekkers and Jirehl Brock, both of whom are no longer with the Cyclones. The Bobcats hung with a similar San Diego State team on the road in Week 0. I kind of think Ohio wins this outright, so I'll take the Bobcats.
Massachusetts at Eastern Michigan (-6.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
This line is down three points in a little over a day. Any time there is a lot of movement, I get nervous. The thing is...I think this is an overcorrection. We all know that I can't pick the Eagles worth a damn, but this feels like it has fallen too far. Give me Eastern Michigan.
Central Michigan at (9) Notre Dame (-34.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
This line is up four points already and will likely be over 35 by kickoff. I get it. Sam Hartman is Adonis with a lightning bolt given to him by Zeus for a right arm. I have zero interest in betting on this game. Give me the Irish, only because they are trying to keep Hartman in the Heisman discussion.
South Carolina at (1) Georgia (-27.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Hey, remember when this was supposed to be the first real test for Georgia? Those were the good old days. South Carolina's offensive line is a disaster right now. That is not what you want as a weakness when facing Georgia. Give me the Bulldogs.
(10) Alabama (-32.5) at South Florida
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
I want this to be an interesting game just because I like watching Byrum Brown play. He is going to have a hard time finding room on this Tide defense though. I want to say this is too high, but it probably isn't. Give me Bama, I guess.
San Diego State at (16) Oregon State (-24.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
The Aztecs have a good defense, but they were burned by the speed of UCLA last week. I'm a Beaver believer, but this still feels a touch high. They don't have the speed that UCLA does. Give me San Diego State.
(18) Oklahoma (-28.5) at Tulsa
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
The Sooners prove they are good sports by taking a two-hour bus ride up to Tulsa. The defense held SMU to 11 points, so I'm not really worried about this spread. For the first time this year, I'm taking the Sooners. I'm a little less confident because of that half though.
Minnesota at (20) North Carolina (-7.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
This line is rising fast, and I wish I had put a lot more on this when I got it at -6. This is still too low if the Gophers aren't going to let Athan Kaliakmanis throw the ball. The UNC defense is built to stop a team like this. I like the Heels by at least 10.
Northwestern at (21) Duke (-18.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
If you thought this game was ugly last year...it's going to be even worse this year. A lot of sharps are on the under in this one, which makes me a little nervous about that high of a spread. Still, Duke is by FAR the better team. I'll go with the Blue Devils, but lower the bet a touch.
Western Michigan at (25) Iowa (-28.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I have zero faith in that Iowa offense, but I wouldn't be shocked if the defense scored a pair of touchdowns here. That's still only half of what they need. Give me the Broncos.
Virginia Tech at Rutgers (-6.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
Weather impacts for Virginia Tech @ Rutgers are now ? High ?. Expect #HurricaneLee to bring a 20 mph NW wind with higher gusts during the game.
**WEATHER EDGE: STRONG UNDER**#Hokies ? #CHOP ? #GamblingTwitter #sportsbettingtwitter pic.twitter.com/4WNZQeMhEO— BettorWeather (@BettorWeather) September 14, 2023
I see people hammering the under, but I also see a staggering 88% of the money on an outright win for Tech...and I agree. The loss of Ali Jennings and potentially Grant Wells and Jaylin Lane hurt a lot less if the weather won't allow them to throw anyway. I'm following the money. Tech outright!
Florida International at Connecticut (-6.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
I don't like this line at all. UConn's defense has looked good, but the offense has looked equally bad. Give me UConn, but I don't trust it.
East Carolina at Appalachian State (-8.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
This one feels easy, which always makes me nervous. Eh...ECU has only scored 16 points in two games. I expect App State to SMASH them here.
Western Kentucky at (6) Ohio State (-29.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Have you seen that WKU offense? How about the defense? The offense is good, the defense is bad. Everything in me says this is too high, but I don't know...I have a feeling that OSU is going to show up one of these Saturdays. I'm lowering the bet, but still taking the Hilltoppers.
Louisiana-Monroe at Texas A&M (-36.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This line has jumped seven points already. I thought it was a bit too high at 29. I feel good about the extra. Give me the Warhawks.
Tulane (-12.5) at Southern Mississippi
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
The status of Michael Pratt is still up in the air, but I'm not sure the bettors care. Kai Horton was solid enough against Ole Miss to have faith that he can beat the Eagles. I'm riding the Wave.
(8) Washington (-16.5) at Michigan State
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
Not even a road game is going to slow down this juggernaut. Give me Washington.
Georgia State (-7.5) at Charlotte
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
The 49ers held their own against Maryland for a while. They might hang with Georgia State as well, but too much Danny Grainger will get them eventually.
(11) Tennessee (-6.5) at Florida
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
This line opened at 7.5, and despite the Vols struggling with Austin Peay, I still liked them. Getting that extra point makes me ecstatic. Give me Tennessee.
North Texas at Louisiana Tech (-4.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
That North Texas defense is a Deeeeeeeeeesaster. Give me the Bulldogs.
Northern Illinois at Nebraska (-10.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
This is the best chance the MAC has to take down a Big Ten (14) team for the 18th straight season. There is a lot of money on Northern Illinois and the points (83%) even though only 53% of the bets are. That means sharps are pounding the Huskies since the line dropped.
NIU lost to FCS Southern Illinois last weekend, but this Nebraska offense has been a comedy of errors. I would much rather hammer the under than bet the spread in this one. The Nebraska defense is legit. The first team to 20 might win. If I truly believe that to be the case, I have to take NIU. I'm just not as gung-ho about it as a lot of the money is.
Vanderbilt (-4.5) at UNLV
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
There has been enough money on the Rebs to move this line a point, but I don't really get why. Just because they stayed within 28 points of Michigan doesn't prove anything. It proves Michigan didn't want to get anyone hurt. Give me Vandy.
Miami (OH) at Cincinnati (-14.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Historic rivalry game this weekend: The oldest non-conference cfb rivalry in America ??
The Battle for the Victory Bell! ?
The first of the series—played in 1888, in Oxford—was the first cfb game played in Ohio. UC currently leads 60-59-7. #NippAtNitehttps://t.co/BzGrNAqwbs pic.twitter.com/DFsxywEpwz
— Derek Chancellor (@DPChancellor) September 15, 2023
Seems close, right? Now the bad news: The Redhawks have never been able to Tweet that they won the Victory Bell. They haven't won in the series since 2005. Twitter was born in March of 2006. I think the drought continues. Give me the Bearcats.
South Alabama at Oklahoma State (-7.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Whatever woes the offense has, the Pokes' defense has been good. This line is dropping though because the Jaguars offense is the best offense that Okie State has faced this year. I'll take the Jags. An outright win is possible, but I just don't expect them to lose by two scores.
Louisiana at UAB (-2.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
This is much ado about UAB giving up 49 points to Georgia Southern. Louisana's offense isn't nearly that effective. Jacob Zeno is. Give me the Blazers.
James Madison at Troy (-2.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
South Florida and Arizona transfer Jordan McCloud is having some fun with the Dukes. I'll take JMU outright. Their run defense has been solid enough to contain Kimani Vidal and I'm not sure Troy can pass to beat them.
San Jose State at Toledo (-7.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I really, really don't like that half. Toledo wins but doesn't cover.
Bowling Green at (2) Michigan (-40.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
Good freaking grief. Michigan is capable of covering, they just have zero interest in doing so. Give me the Falcons, but I wouldn't bet this with your money...
Georgia Tech at (17) Mississippi (-17.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
I just don't see the Bees being able to move the ball at will on Ole Miss. Quinshon Judkins, on the other hand...give me the Rebels.
BYU at Arkansas (-7.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
The bottom has fallen out of this line. I get it. The Arkansas offense has been lethargic and BYU's defense has been really good. If this were in Provo, I might buy this, but I don't in Fayetteville. Give me the Hogs.
Akron at Kentucky (-25.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
Kentucky is capable of covering this, but I sure as hell wouldn't bet on them doing it. Give me the Cats, but I would bet zero if I could.
Syracuse (-2.5) at Purdue
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Purdue is a dog at home? This seems fishy. I guess the real question is do I think Syracuse is as good as Fresno? No. No, I don't. Give me Purdue.
Pittsburgh at West Virginia (-2.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
The Backyard Brawl is back in West Virginia for the first time in a dozen years. I was really hoping that Pitt would be favored so I go smash the WVU money line for some extra coin, but no such luck. That spread isn't a deterrent at all. Give me the Mountaineers.
Wyoming at (4) Texas (-29.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
Finally having the Longhorn Network comes in handy but I still can't freaking watch ABC. Welcome to the streaming/cable/satellite CENSOREDshow that is 2023. Give me Texas, I guess. I just don't know if they have any major interest in covering this.
Hawaii at (13) Oregon (-38.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Who currently leads the country in passing yards? ? Caleb Williams? Bo Nix? Michael Penix Jr.?
It’s actually Hawaii QB Brayden Schager with 972 total yards passing ?
Oregon plays Hawaii this Saturday!
FULL EPISODE: https://t.co/oEIR2OcefY
-
(FOLLOW THE @DuckZone503… pic.twitter.com/NMjc9FFXME
— DuckZone503 Podcast (@DuckZone503) September 15, 2023
...and yet I see people going heavy on the under. I won't be. Give me Oregon.
New Mexico State at New Mexico (-1.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Who's up for a little Rio Grande Rivarly? Me too! The Aggies have taken a dive since going to and winning a bowl last year. Honestly, the Lobos have looked the better team so far, mostly thanks to Jacory Croskey-Merritt. Give me the Lobos at home.
Florida Atlantic at Clemson (-24.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This is too many. FAU won't win, but Clemson's offense sleepwalked through an entire half against Charleston Southern. If they do that again, they won't cover. Give me the Owls.
TCU (-7.5) at Houston
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
I don't buy this. I think Rice is better than we think and Colorado isn't quite as good as ESPN thinks. Give me Houston. I wouldn't be shocked if they won outright.
Colorado State at (18) Colorado (-23.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
This line is getting as big as Deion's head since Colorado State announced a quarterback switch to freshman Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi. Well...that and Jay Norvell took a shot at Deion Sanders in the media. Now he's mad and his son is the quarterback. Colorado rolls!
Fresno State (-2.5) at Arizona State
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
I have every confidence that the Sun Devils will find some creative way to lose this game. Give me Fresno.
Kansas (-27.5) at Nevada
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This is a big number, but Nevada has lost a dozen straight games. Give me Kansas.
UTEP at Arizona (-17.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Wow, this kind of feels like an overcorrection to Arizona nearly beating Mississippi State in StarkVegas. Then again, the Miners lost by more than this to Northwestern. Give me the Cats.
There are 54 total FBS vs. FBS games this weekend. I am getting close to a full workload, and I feel pretty good about this week. I went heaviest with 19 two-point bets, but I upped the three-point bets to 17 this week. I stayed consistent with eight single-point bets. I'm up to four four-pointers and maxed out four again this week. Good luck out there!
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