RADIO
This is the last full week of the last great college football regular season. We have rivalry games that have a lot riding on them today where they might never again, at least not to this magnitude. There is at least one playoff game today. There are also 48 more, so let's enjoy it!
I will pick every college football bowl game. Not a top-five. Not a top-10. All of them. Big deal, right? Lots of people make picks. Well, I do them all against the spread. I take the odds of each game and average them out at all the Vegas casinos and round to the nearest half. There will be no ties here. Ties are for the other (European) football.
I also assign a point value based on the confidence I have in each pick. So a score of 1 means that I have little to no confidence, and a score of 5 is one I would place a decent wager on. I keep track of my record and my points from year to year. Here are the results so far. I gained back the points I lost last week, but am still above water on the season.
CFB Betting Picks Overview
As we all know, this is not an exact science. Due to the volatile nature of betting in general, this is for entertainment purposes only. I cannot be responsible for the loss of money, possessions, spouses, or limbs because of my picks. I am a simple man. I can't have that on my conscience.
I will be going to the betting window with all of you as well. Most of these I won't actually wager on at the casinos, but I have been known to stagger around 50 games in a week at various online places just because I love the action. Whatever your betting limits or needs, I can at least give you which way I'm leaning.
CFB Betting Picks for 2023 Week 13 (November 25, 2023)
(2) Ohio State at (3) Michigan (-3.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
How much of the last two years has been sign stealing and how much has been Michigan just being better? We may never know. What we do know is that everyone is going to remember this version of The Game because it's the last great one. All I know is that Ohio State better not come out and lose this game. With all of the trash-talking about sign stealing, they need to prove that they really are the better team.
I know many people, not just Ohio State fans, who are upset about the perceived slap on the wrist that Michigan got. If you want people to really take a deep dive into this, Ohio State needs to go out there and embarrass Michigan and leave no doubt that the cheating was real and far more serious than Michigan admitted. Give me Brutus.
Kentucky at (10) Louisville (-7.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I went over what happened the last time that Kentucky faced a ranked Louisville in the Pick Em article...and how the Wildcats lost to the Gamecocks the week before. I'll hedge and say that Kentucky doesn't get covered, but I'm probably leaving this alone.
Texas A&M at (14) LSU (-11.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
The A&M defense has been solid and the offense has been better. I don't think that they win this game, but that line seems really high. That is until I went back and watched this. Give me LSU.
Indiana at Purdue (-3.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I don't know about this. I think the Oaken Bucket is headed to Bloomington. Give me Indiana.
Middle Tennessee State (-3.5) at Sam Houston
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Are the Bearkats done blowing games yet? No? Give me MTSU.
Connecticut (-2.5) at Massachusetts
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
I've watched enough of both of these teams to know that I want no part of this. Both have looked good at times (like UMass beating New Mexico State) and downright awful at others. I'll take UMass at home, but leave this alone. If I could bet zero, I would.
Pittsburgh at Duke (-6.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Pitt has played better football under Nate Yarnell. Duke has not under Grayson Loftis. I can't believe that I'm doing this, but give me Pitt.
Houston at Central Florida (-13.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
I have no faith in Houston and I even think this is high. That said, the Knights just smashed Oklahoma State in the Bounce House. You know, the team that Houston just blew a lead to at home last week. Give me UCF.
Navy at SMU (-18.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
This is too many. Navy will control the ball for 45 minutes if they have to. Playing keep away from the Mustangs will work to keep the score down. I'll take Navy.
Troy (-16.5) at Southern Mississippi
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I can't say this isn't warranted. The gimmicky offense of the Eagles got exposed last week by a far inferior team, but Troy isn't really built to cover spreads like this either. They like to run the ball and use short passes to control the game. I'll take Southern Miss not to get covered.
Northern Illinois (-18.5) at Kent State
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
NIU isn't built to cover these lines, but Kent is awful. I'll take the Huskies, but lower the bet.
Miami (OH) (-5.5) at Ball State
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
The Redhawks are low-key a really good team. This isn't enough to chase me off. Give me Miami.
Florida Atlantic at Rice (-3.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
Again, Rice is getting little respect from Vegas. JT Daniels isn't ready for his career to be over. Rice covers and goes bowling!
Wake Forest at Syracuse (-2.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
In the Loud House? This is too low. I'll take the Orange.
Tulsa at East Carolina (-2.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I'm done losing money on Tulsa. Give me the Pirates!
UAB at North Texas (-2.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I liked it better where it opened (-3.5), but I still think UAB wins outright behind Jacob Zeno. Give me the Blazers.
Georgia State at Old Dominion (-2.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
The Monarchs have been tough at home all season, but I'm still a huge believer in Danny Grainger. Give me GSU.
Western Kentucky (-10.5) at Florida International
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I'm scarred by how poorly Austin Reed played last week. Do I dare? Yeah...give me FIU. They won't win, but they'll ugly this up enough to stick around.
Colorado at Utah (-21.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Shedeur Sanders is likely not playing and the Utes desperately need to get right. Give me Utah.
(22) Louisiana-Monroe at Louisiana (-12.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
There is no doubt that the Cajuns are the better team, but 13 points in a rivalry? That seems like a lot. Give me the Cajuns, but lower the bet.
San Jose State at UNLV (-2.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Wow, this is a tough one. I don't quite think UNLV is there yet. Give me the Spartans, but I'm probably leaving this one alone.
(8) Alabama (-14.5) at Auburn
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Auburn got smoked by New Mexico State last week. There is looking ahead...and there is just being a bad team. I'm going with the latter. Give me Bama.
(15) Arizona (-10.5) at Arizona State
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I'll be honest. This changes things for me. Peak Fun Devils this year was when Rashada was starting. Arizona is still going to win this game, but I think it stays close.
BYU at (20) Oklahoma State (-16.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
They aren't playing on a chewed-up field. That alone is worth 17 points. Give me the Pokes!
Vanderbilt at (21) Tennessee (-27.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Yikes. Vanderbilt is terrible, but come on! Give me Vandy.
(25) Liberty (-16.5) at UTEP
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
That's not high enough to chase me off. I'll take Liberty.
Northwestern at Illinois (-5.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
I still like Northwestern outright. They have been the better team and seeing Illinois and Iowa in bowl games might be more than I can take. Give me the Wildcats.
Wisconsin (-2.5) at Minnesota
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
I've gone back and forth on this one a few times and the conclusion that I keep coming up with is that Minnesota should be a lot better than they are. So should Wisconsin. Give me the Gophers, but I've decided that I want nothing to do with this.
Maryland (-1.5) at Rutgers
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
This feels low. Maryland hit a rough patch for a while. Rutgers is a rough patch. Give me the Turtles.
Virginia Tech (-2.5) at Virginia
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I get it. This is a game that the Hokies should win. However, an emotional Virginia team is finally playing well with Anthony Colandrea leading it. I still feel like the Wahoos win this. I'll take Virginia.
Georgia Southern at Appalachian State (-8.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
It would be the most Appalachian State thing ever to lose this after taking a perfect season away from James Madison. I'll take App State, but lower the bet.
James Madison (-8.5) at Coastal Carolina
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
JMU is better, but this much better? I have my doubts. Give me Coastal not to get covered.
Arkansas State at Marshall (-2.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Arkansas State is still scoring points from last weekend. They didn't score them on Marshall though. I'm following the Herd.
Washington State at (4) Washington (-16.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Nope. The Huskies are going to have to fight for this. Give me Wazzu.
Jacksonville State (-2.5) at New Mexico State
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
I have to say that I'm more than a little surprised by this. The Aggies beat Auburn. I'm not sure Jacksonville State could even with a few thousand of their fans in Jordan-Hare. Give me NMSU.
(5) Florida State (-6.5) at Florida
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
The Florida defense has been awful and their backup QB is worse than Tate Rodemaker. Give me FSU.
(18) Notre Dame (-25.5) at Stanford
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This should be doable for Sam Hartman in his final regular season game. I'll take the Irish.
West Virginia (-9.5) at Baylor
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
The Bears just got blown out in a rivalry. It's not suddenly getting better a week later. Give me the Mountaineers.
South Alabama (-5.5) at Texas State
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
Two of the most inconsistent teams in the Fun Belt meet in San Marcos. What could possibly go wrong? Everything, so I'm leaving this alone. I'll take USA though.
(1) Georgia (-24.5) at Georgia Tech
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
I hate everything about this line. Give me Georgia, but I don't trust it.
(24) Clemson (-7.5) at South Carolina
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I get that Clemson wants revenge and all, but I don't think they're winning this by two scores in Columbia. Give me the Gamecocks.
Charlotte at South Florida (-6.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
The Bulls finally get a team that won't really fight back. Give me USF.
Iowa State at (19) Kansas State (-9.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Me too. Then the Big 12(14), since they can't do anything right, kill this rivalry for no good reason. I'm going to enjoy the hell out of this one and ISU is not losing by 10. Give me the Cyclones.
North Carolina (-2.5) at (22) North Carolina State
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
Sometimes I freaking love how much people blindly follow the Heels. Brennan Armstrong is back. The Pack are winning this game!
Wyoming (-10.5) at Nevada
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
The Cowboys won't be bothered by the cold or the altitude so Nevada is screwed.
California at UCLA (-9.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
The Bears might outdraw the inappropriately named bears. Give me Cal. I wouldn't be shocked if they won this outright.
Fresno State (-5.5) at San Diego State
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
They say Mikey Keene is healthy. If they are right, this is low. Give me Fresno.
Colorado State (-5.5) at Hawaii
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
I believe that. This is the way I was leaning anyway. Give me the Rams.
This is the right move and this will result in a Nebraska victory. Wisconsin is beaten up and Nebraska's run defense is very good.
I still have four minimum bets, but I maxed out two this week and laid four points on 10 of them. I went a bit lighter on the threes with 23 and have 25 two-pointers again. Good luck out there!
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