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Mike's CFB betting picks against the spread for Friday, Week 13 of the 2023 season (11/24/23). Every FBS college football game analyzed with his top wagers and NCAA best bets.
This is the last week of the last great college football season. It is very bittersweet for me because I've watched the NFL and various other sports become unwatchable for much of the regular season due to expanded playoffs. College football is taking away the last thing that makes it truly unique -- a regular season where you get one free pass, but you have to win the rest. It creates an urgency that can't be replicated in any other place in sports. It's like a season-long NCAA basketball tournament...and now it's gone.
This last week will be a little different. It's rivalry week, so lines change more often than usual during this week. We also have a much larger slate of games on Friday. Separating Friday and Saturday picks allows for more accurate spreads in a week where we really need it.
I also assign a point value based on the confidence I have in each pick. So a score of 1 means that I have little to no confidence, and a score of 5 is one I would place a decent wager on. I keep track of my record and my points from year to year. Here are the results so far. I had a rough week in the middle and lost some points, but the Georgia bet made sure I came out ahead in real life.
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CFB Betting Picks Overview
As we all know, this is not an exact science. Due to the volatile nature of betting in general, this is for entertainment purposes only. I cannot be responsible for the loss of money, possessions, spouses, or limbs because of my picks. I am a simple man. I can't have that on my conscience.
I will be going to the betting window with all of you as well. Most of these I won't actually wager on at the casinos, but I have been known to stagger around 50 games in a week at various online places just because I love the action. Whatever your betting limits or needs, I can at least give you which way I'm leaning.
CFB Betting Picks for 2023 Week 13 (November 24, 2023)
TCU at (13) Oklahoma (-9.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
So Vegas thinks that Dillon Gabriel is playing, huh? I'll bite. BOOMER!
(17) Iowa at Nebraska (-2.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
A ton of money is coming in on the Cornhuskers since their showing last week in Madison. The line has moved 3.5 points, and I get it. It's in Lincoln, they have a quarterback that looked good last week, and their run defense is elite. Hey! That sounds a lot like Iowa. You know, the team that perfected ball-control offense and a stifling defense. Give me the originals. Nebraska puts up a fight, but Iowa still wins. It's just a bonus that we get this at plus odds.
And yes, take the under again! Easy money!
Miami (FL) (-10.5) at Boston College
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
There was a point not long ago when I thought Miami could cover a line like this with ease. I'm not sure now. They left a lot on the field against Louisville last week. How much do they have left? Miami has lost three straight and is 1-3 on the road with the only win against an overmatched Temple team. Give me BC. This is at least a half-point too high.
Memphis (-12.5) at Temple
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
I believe this, but I think I prefer the over 65. Give me Memphis, but I'm not going crazy on it.
Toledo (-10.5) at Central Michigan
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
This feels low. Give me Toledo.
Ohio (-13.5) at Akron
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Ohio won't improve their bowl standing with a win here, so I feel like they'll take it easy with Kurtis Rourke and Sieh Bangura. Give me Akron.
UTSA at (23) Tulane (-3.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I don't know...after what I saw from Frank Harris last week, I wouldn't be shocked if UTSA won outright. I'll take the Roadrunners.
Utah State (-6.5) at New Mexico
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
This is too many. This is New Mexico's Bowl game in the stadium where the New Mexico Bowl is played. Coincidence? I think not. Lobos outright!
(9) Missouri (-8.5) at Arkansas
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
The Battle Line game is almost always close and the Tigers struggled with the Gators at home last week. I think Missouri wins, but I highly doubt that it's by more than one score. Give me Arkansas.
Air Force at Boise State (-7.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
I don't like that hook, but Air Force has been a shadow of itself without Emmanuel Michel. Now they're missing Zac Larrier too? And it's on the Smurf Turf? Boise rolls!
Texas Tech at (7) Texas (-13.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
When is Quinn Ewers going to have that "a-ha" moment? When is he going to take over a game? He hasn't done so yet and he may need to here. This feels way too high to me, especially when I think Tech has a puncher's chance to win outright. Give me the Red Raiders.
(11) Penn State (-21.5) at Michigan State
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Wow! Too many. I could form a compelling argument that the Spartans have been playing just as well as Penn State of late. Drew Allar has had two not just bad, but terrible, games in a row. Give me Sparty. I don't think they win, but an ugly game means they hang around.
(16) Oregon State at (6) Oregon (-13.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
This line has almost doubled since it opened...in a rivalry game!! It's out of control! Give me the Beavers. They're not losing by more than 10. That feels like an easy bet.
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