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Mike's CFB betting picks against the spread for Week 12 of the 2023 season (11/18/23). Every FBS college football game analyzed with his top wagers and NCAA best bets.
This is our last -- and greatest -- monster betting Saturday of the last great college football season. We have our busiest day of the 2023 season with 56 games today alone! Sure, betting will still be fun next year...until teams start sitting players because they have already clinched a playoff spot. We don't have any of the crap now and I'm really not looking forward to the NCAA morons trying to make this great sport like everything else. Being unique is good.
I will pick every college football bowl game. Not a top-five. Not a top-10. All of them. Big deal, right? Lots of people make picks. Well, I do them all against the spread. I take the odds of each game and average them out at all the Vegas casinos and round to the nearest half. There will be no ties here. Ties are for the other (European) football.
I also assign a point value based on the confidence I have in each pick. So a score of 1 means that I have little to no confidence, and a score of 5 is one I would place a decent wager on. I keep track of my record and my points from year to year. Here are the results so far. I gained back the points I lost last week, but am still above water on the season.
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CFB Betting Picks Overview
As we all know, this is not an exact science. Due to the volatile nature of betting in general, this is for entertainment purposes only. I cannot be responsible for the loss of money, possessions, spouses, or limbs because of my picks. I am a simple man. I can't have that on my conscience.
I will be going to the betting window with all of you as well. Most of these I won't actually wager on at the casinos, but I have been known to stagger around 50 games in a week at various online places just because I love the action. Whatever your betting limits or needs, I can at least give you which way I'm leaning.
CFB Betting Picks for 2023 Week 12 (November 18, 2023)
(3) Michigan (-19.5) at Maryland
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
It won't matter if Michigan spied on Maryland or not. If they turn it over like they did against Nebraska, this game will be over by the end of the first quarter. Give me Michigan.
(10) Louisville (-1.5) at Miami (FL)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This line opened with Miami favored and is still a pick em at many books. I get it. Louisville looked pretty awful against Virginia. I have a hard time trusting Miami with the quarterback situation being what it is. I felt like Louisville was a sneaky pick to get upset, but not anymore. A large percentage of the public is on Miami, which makes me trust this even less. Give me Louisville. I just can't get behind this anymore.
I used to try and tune out the Vegas noise and go completely based on what I've seen. Even after all these years, I still get nervous when Vegas lines are this close in a game that I don't think should be. It gets a little easier when you realize that Vegas does not care one bit about who wins or loses. They just want to get you to bet. More often than not, they come out ahead.
Rutgers at (12) Penn State (-19.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
This line has jumped precipitously enough for some books to pull it entirely. I don't like it this high since Rutgers plays decent defense. However, Penn State romped over an Iowa team that is built a lot like Rutgers with a worse quarterback. I'll take Penn State.
Louisiana-Monroe at (13) Mississippi (-37.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Monroe has been bad on the road and not much better at home. Ole Miss should cover this in their sleep.
(14) Oklahoma (-24.5) at BYU
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Is Oklahoma capable of covering this? Absolutely. Will they? I doubt it. What's in it for them? None of the players (or coaches, for that matter) were around when BYU hurt Sam Bradford and beat the Sooners to open the 2009 season in Jerry World. BYU also smoked Oklahoma in the now-defunct Copper Bowl back in 1994. So...okay. The Sooners want to beat BYU because they haven't yet. They will, and I'll say they cover just because it feels like they have a purpose now.
(24) Tulane (-9.5) at Florida Atlantic
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
I still feel like this is too many. On paper, Tulane should blow the Owls out of the water. They haven't been doing that on the field. Tulane hasn't won a game by more than three points in almost a month and hasn't won one by double figures since October 13. Give me FAU.
Coastal Carolina (-3.5) at Army
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Army needs to win out to make it to a bowl game. They're a dangerous team to play when their backs are up against the wall. Give me Army.
Michigan State at Indiana (-3.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
The basketball version of this is going to be more exciting. Considering that Indiana just gave Illinois everything they wanted, this feels low. Give me the Hoosiers.
Southern Mississippi at Mississippi State (-14.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
This is too many. Now that Southern Miss isn't actively sabotaging Frank Gore Jr., I feel like they stay within 10 or so.
Purdue (-2.5) at Northwestern
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
Really? I'm far more impressed with Northwestern's win over the Badgers than with anything Purdue has done. Give me the Cats outright at home.
East Carolina at Navy (-2.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
The ECU defense is good, but how good? Not stopping the Navy option good. Give me the Middies.
SMU (-8.5) at Memphis
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
The SMU offense is finally hitting its stride. There was a lot of turnover after last year. Give me the Ponies.
Massachusetts at Liberty (-27.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
These are getting harder to pick. I'll take Liberty, but I'm not touching this.
Louisiana Tech at Jacksonville State
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Notice that the petitions to the morons at the NCAA offices by James Madison suggested shortening the bowl ban to one year and not removing it completely. They're scared of the Gamecocks, aren't they? Louisiana Tech should be. Give me the Gamecocks at home.
UTEP at Middle Tennessee State (-7.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
That hook could be trouble, but I really have no reason to think that an extra week off will make UTEP any better. Give me MTSU.
Rice (-2.5) at Charlotte
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Even if JT Daniels isn't back for Rice, this feels low. Owls roll!
Appalachian State at James Madison (-8.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This line is falling fast and I think that continues. App State is a team that no one really wants to play right now. I think JMU is still the better team, but I kind of think this game stays close. Dukes win but don't cover.
Kent State at Ball State (-12.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This is the only MACtion on Saturday this week and it's kind of a clunker. I would say this feels high, but it probably isn't. Give me the Lettermans.
Hawaii at Wyoming (-13.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
It has to be quite a shock to the system to go from Hawaii to Laramie in November. It's not a night game, at least. This feels high. Hawaii is playing as well as they have since 2018 right now.
(22) Utah at (17) Arizona (-1.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I still view this game as a toss-up and the chart above agrees. Being that Arizona is at home and at full strength, I'll say that they take care of business. I'm probably leaving this alone though.
Cincinnati at West Virginia (-5.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
The Mountaineers caught the Sooners at a bad time. They can stop Cincinnati's run game and control this one at home. Give me WVU.
Duke (-3.5) at Virginia
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
The Hoos are playing well right now. Duke hanging with North Carolina is a bit of a mirage. The Tarheels aren't a good team right now. Grayson Loftis is what Anthony Colandrea was about two months ago. Give me the Hoos at home.
North Texas (-2.5) at Tulsa
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I will tell you right now that if Kirk Francis starts this game, Tulsa will win. Braylon Braxton has earned the backup role. It's time to see what the freshman can do. Give me Tulsa.
Temple at UAB (-7.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Wow, this is tough. UAB looked awful against Navy last week. Temple nearly beat South Florida. I'll go with the experience of Jacob Zeno, but I don't really trust this.
Texas State (-3.5) at Arkansas State
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
This feels about right. The Bobcats are a pretty good team. That's what the transfer portal can do for you. Give me Texas State.
Nevada at Colorado State (-11.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
This line is on the way up. No one trusts Nevada anymore. I certainly don't trust them here. Give me the Rams.
(1) Georgia (-9.5) at (18) Tennessee
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
Hey, remember when this was supposed to be the greatest test for Georgia? This line is way too low. Georgia by double this!
Illinois at (16) Iowa (-3.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
John Paddock is going to come crashing back to earth here, but the Iowa secondary takes a massive hit with Cooper DeJean out. I'll take Iowa, but I'm lowering the bet a bit.
Wake Forest at (19) Notre Dame (-24.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
Wake is bad, but this feels high. Give me Wake, but I'm leaving this alone.
(20) North Carolina at Clemson (-7.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This line says it all. Carolina is a fraud and everyone knows it. That said, a Cade Klubnik-led team isn't winning this by two scores. I like the under 59.5 more than the spread. Give me UNC. I'm convinced they'll lose, but I'm not convinced they'll lose by more than a touchdown.
Sam Houston at Western Kentucky (-12.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This feels high considering no one has stepped up to help Austin Reed and Malachi Corley. Give me the Bearkats.
UCLA at USC (-5.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
The Battle of Los Angeles and neither one are ranked. I find this very amusing. I also find this line very low. The USC defense improved a lot last week. USC by double digits.
North Carolina State at Virginia Tech (-2.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
The Pack are a lot better, but I'm a believer in Kyron Drones. Give me the Hokies.
Baylor at TCU (-13.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
This is not the Blue Bonnet Bowl. This is the Revivalry! This is also WAY TOO MANY POINTS! Give me Baylor.
Louisiana at Troy (-16.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Yikes! I can't say I disagree though. Give me Troy, but I've lost the will to bet this.
UNLV at Air Force (-2.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
No freaking way. Air Force lost to Hawaii. Give me the Rebels outright!
Minnesota at (2) Ohio State (-27.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
I never thought I would say this, but...this is too low. Minnesota is generationally bad this year. Give me Brutus.
(6) Oregon (-24.5) at Arizona State
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
The Fun Devils beating UCLA was a fluke. Give me the Ducks.
(23) Oklahoma State (-6.5) at Houston
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
Man, that UCF game is really weighing on me. I know Houston will find a way to blow this, home or not. Give me the Pokes.
New Mexico State at Auburn (-25.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Look, I know that the Auburn offense is good now. Really, I do. However, Liberty didn't even cover this line. The Aggies have won six in a row so they are going bowling again. They'll hang around for a while and not get covered.
Central Florida at Texas Tech (-2.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
So no one believes in the Knights, huh? Me either. Give me Tech.
Marshall at South Alabama (-10.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
This line is bogus. Rasheen Ali is back to form and Cole Pennington gives Marshall the quarterback they have needed all season. I wouldn't be shocked if Marshall wins outright.
Old Dominion at Georgia Southern (-5.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
The Monarchs have struggled on the road all season long. Give me GSU.
California (-6.5) at Stanford
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
This is the last Big Game of the Pac-12 era. The line is slowly climbing, and I get it. It's a rivalry game on the road. This looks really low though. Cal is the much better team. Give me the Bears.
(21) Kansas State (-9.5) at (25) Kansas
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Jason Bean will play. That at least gives Kansas a puncher's chance. I'll take Kansas in Lawrence. I don't think they win this game, but this is the year that they hang around...I think...
Boise State (-3.5) at Utah State
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Ashton Jeanty is a good back and the two-headed quarterback thing is working for now. Give me the Broncos.
(5) Washington at (11) Oregon State (-1.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This line opened with the Huskies favored. I'm still a believer in Michael Penix and I like what the Huskies have done. I'm also a believer in how utterly pissed off Oregon State is about the state of the conference and the legal proceedings. They are also mad at being snubbed by the company that helped destroy them by not giving them College Game Day. This year more than any other, it's personal. This is a game that Washington should win, but I get the feeling that they're going to lose.
I know that Oregon State hasn't quite faced an offense like this. If Washington tries to rip off the big play every time, they're going to lose this game. The Huskies needed big-time plays to beat both Oregon and Utah, but that's the point. They got those plays. Oregon State has lost those close games (Arizona and Washington State). I'm taking Washington.
Florida at (9) Missouri (-10.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
This feels low. Give me Missouri.
Florida International at Arkansas (-29.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
Yuck. I'll take the Pigs, but I wouldn't bet this with your money.
Kentucky at South Carolina (-1.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
Where did this come from? Suddenly, losing to Alabama is a bad look? No way. Kentucky was playing well before the Bama game and I think they'll continue afterward. Give me the Wildcats.
Nebraska at Wisconsin (-5.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
This is the right move and this will result in a Nebraska victory. Wisconsin is beaten up and Nebraska's run defense is very good.
(7) Texas (-7.5) at Iowa State
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
This is too many. If Texas tries to lose again, they'll succeed in Ames. Give me the Cyclones.
Georgia State at (15) LSU (-31.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
No. Just...no. The LSU defense won't succeed in holding the Panthers below 20 points. Give me Georgia State.
Syracuse at Georgia Tech (-6.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Georgia Tech has allowed 224 yards rushing and 2.2 rushing touchdowns per game this year. Syracuse used two running backs, a quarterback, and a tight end to grind Boston College into the ground. They'll do the same to the Wreck. Give me Syracuse.
New Mexico at Fresno State (-23.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
This looks high, but I don't know. All I know is that I want no part of this. Give me Fresno, I guess.
San Diego State at San Jose State (-14.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
I can't say this doesn't make sense. Give me the Spartans.
I only have one max bet this week and it's on the number one team. I only have four minimum bets, so I'm living in the middle once again with 25 two-point bets. I did even up with 26 three-pointers and eight four-pointers though. Good luck out there!
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