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Mike's CFB betting picks against the spread for Week 10 of the 2023 season (11/4/23). Every FBS college football game analyzed with his top wagers and NCAA best bets.
We have a monster Saturday with 53 games on tap this week. It's Bama-LSU week. It might be the last (ever?) installment of Bedlam. Oh...and we have Washington/USC. With everything else going on, will that even be a factor? Hell yes!
I will pick every college football bowl game. Not a top-five. Not a top-10. All of them. Big deal, right? Lots of people make picks. Well, I do them all against the spread. I take the odds of each game and average them out at all the Vegas casinos and round to the nearest half. There will be no ties here. Ties are for the other (European) football.
I also assign a point value based on the confidence I have in each pick. So a score of 1 means that I have little to no confidence, and a score of 5 is one I would place a decent wager on. I keep track of my record and my points from year to year. Here are the results so far. I had a pretty decent week last week, and I'm starting to pay off some of last year's losses. I am adding prior seasons to tabs on the sheet. Everything before 2014 is lost to the ghost of The Sports Blog Network. If anyone knows how to find those, I'll go farther back.
CFB Betting Picks Overview
As we all know, this is not an exact science. Due to the volatile nature of betting in general, this is for entertainment purposes only. I cannot be responsible for the loss of money, possessions, spouses, or limbs because of my picks. I am a simple man. I can't have that on my conscience.
I will be going to the betting window with all of you as well. Most of these I won't actually wager on at the casinos, but I have been known to stagger around 50 games in a week at various online places just because I love the action. Whatever your betting limits or needs, I can at least give you which way I'm leaning.
CFB Betting Picks for 2023 Week 10 (November 4, 2023)
(1) Ohio State (-18.5) at Rutgers
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
To be fair, I've had that little "1" ranking next to Ohio State for weeks now. Leave it to a committee to knock some sense into the AP, but I digress. This feels a touch high, but Rutgers is not Wisconsin. They aren't going to move the ball at all. Give me the Buckeyes.
(23) Kansas State at (7) Texas (-4.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
This spread says it all. Texas isn't that far ahead of the Wildcats with Quinn Ewers out again. Besides, this team is so hot right now.
K-State might not be Hansel, but the strength of their defense is run defense. I know that Xavier Worthy can burn them deep, but can Maalik Murphy hit him with enough deep balls to make a difference? I have my doubts. Give me K-State.
Texas A&M at (10) Mississippi (-3.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
This line is already down 1.5 points almost everywhere. Why? Are you scared of Max Johnson? I'm not. Ole Miss rolls!
(15) Notre Dame (-3.5) at Clemson
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
It would be the most Notre Dame thing ever to go into Death Valley and lose to a 4-4 Clemson team. I wouldn't bet on it. The Tigers are really lost right now, and Cade Klubnik isn't the answer no matter how many votes of confidence Dabo gives him. I'll say the Irish get their first win in Death Valley since 1977, maybe even by double figures.
Connecticut at (17) Tennessee (-35.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
Is it cupcake week already? I hate lines like this. Give me UConn, but I'm not touching it.
Arkansas at Florida (-5.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I honestly don't trust either team. I do trust K.J. Jefferson more than Graham Mertz, so give me the Piggies.
Wisconsin (-9.5) at Indiana
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
So...uh...is Indiana going to start playing good now? Asking for a friend. Friends don't let friends bet on this game. I do like Indiana to hang around at home though, so give me the Hoosiers.
Nebraska (-2.5) at Michigan State
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Sparty is a little better. Nebraska is a lot better. Give me the Cornhuskers.
Jacksonville State at South Carolina (-15.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I'm glad the schedule makers have a sense of humor and made this happen. I would really love to see this cock fight take place in Jacksonville, but I'll take what I can get. This should be an easier game for South Carolina, but they have a nasty habit of not making things easy on themselves. Give me Jacksonville State. I want to enjoy this one. That will go a lot better if I'm not rooting for SC to pull away.
Arizona State at (18) Utah (-11.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
This feels high. The Fun Devils are pretty good on both sides of the ball. I know Utah won't lose back-to-back games at home, but I'll be surprised if they beat a solid ASU team by more than 10. Give me ASU and the points.
Georgia Tech at Virginia (-2.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Virginia is new to crashing the ACC party. The Wreck has been doing this all year. Give me the Wreck.
Navy (-6.5) at Temple
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Temple has shown nothing that says they won't get covered. Give me Navy.
Army at Air Force (-18.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
Ouch. I'm not shocked, but I'm not betting on it either. Give me Air Force, I guess.
Florida Atlantic (-2.5) at UAB
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
I like Daniel Richardson and all, but I don't see them beating Jacob Zeno and the Blazers at home. UAB outright.
UTSA (-7.5) at North Texas
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I know that the Roadrunners are the bullies of the American, but more than one score against a North Texas team that is playing well? This is tough. I'll take UTSA, but I'm probably leaving this one alone.
South Florida at Memphis (-13.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I want to say this is too many, but I've seen the South Florida defense blow this too many times to say it with a straight face. Give me Memphis.
Louisiana (-9.5) at Arkansas State
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
The Cajuns keep bucking my spreads, so I'm betting on them this time.
(12) Missouri at (2) Georgia (-15.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
This line is down two points, meaning that the bettors still believe that Missouri has a chance. The Tigers are one of the better-equipped teams to handle Georgia, but that game was in Columbia, people. That makes a huge difference. I'm saying Missouri because I want to believe, but I'm not touching this.
(4) Florida State (-21,5) at Pittsburgh
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
The only reason I'm not maxing this out is because of the hook. FSU rolls!
(9) Oklahoma (-5.5) at (22) Oklahoma State
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Last week Oklahoma got beat because Kansas wanted it more. I can guarantee you that the Pokes want this more and Ollie Gordon is better than anything we have. Give me Oklahoma State. This losing back-to-back games thing sucks. I can see why Bob Stoops never did it.
Oh, who am I kidding? BOOMER! We are NOT going out like that!
(11) Penn State (-8.5) at Maryland
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
I know that Penn State looked like absolute crap against Ohio State and not much better against a spirited Indiana team, but this is too low. Give me Penn State.
Virginia Tech at (13) Louisville (-9.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I don't know...I feel like the Hokies hang around. Kyron Drones made this team a lot better.
(24)Tulane (-16.5) at East Carolina
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
What the Wave are capable of and what transpires on the field are often not aligned. Give me Tulane, but I'm staying far away from this one.
Illinois at Minnesota (-1.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
1.5? Seriously? It must not be BYOO (Bring Your Own Officials). Give me Minnesota.
Iowa (-5.5) at Northwestern
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This feels like a game where the Wildcats could snipe them. I'm still taking Iowa, but significantly lowering the bet.
Houston at Baylor (-3.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Where is Houston's mind at? They horrendously lose to Texas then get blanked by Willie. Now what? Baylor? Yikes. I guess...when in Waco...
Central Florida (-3.5) at Cincinnati
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
I have seen absolutely nothing that says Cincy can win this. Give me UCF.
James Madison (-5.5) at Georgia State
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
One of these games, JMU is going to get picked off, aren't they? My pick was here until the Panthers lost to Georgia Southern. Give me the Dukes, but I am less confident in them than I was early in the season.
Coastal Carolina (-1.5) at Old Dominion
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
The Chanticleers proved that this isn't all Grayson McCall's doing. Now what? An outright loss in Norfolk because they can't stop the run. I'll take the Monarchs.
Auburn (-12.5) at Vanderbilt
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
This is a get-right game for the Tigers, but are they beating anyone by that much? With that defense, it is certainly possible. War Eagle!
Charlotte at Tulsa (-3.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
Tulsa is favored? That's more terrifying than anything I saw on Halloween. Give me the Sand Storm, I guess...
Louisiana-Monroe at Southern Mississippi (-2.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
Maybe I'm reading too much into the Eagles remembering how good Frank Gore Jr. is. I don't think so. Gore is in for another monster in the cover.
Hawaii at Nevada (-3.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
They call it a winning streak for a reason: it's contagious! The Pack make it three in a row here!
Georgia Southern (-2.5) at Texas State
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
Is this missing a digit? No? Eagles by double figures!
California at (6) Oregon (24.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Cal is a young and exciting team, but they aren't to the point where they can hang with Oregon yet...especially on the road. That said, this feels a bit high. Give me Cal.
Louisiana Tech at Liberty (-16.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
Wow...really? Uhh...give me Liberty, I think. There's no way I'm betting on this.
Middle Tennessee State at New Mexico State (-3.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
The Aggies are back on track, but I don't like the hook. I'm lowering the bet.
Marshall at Appalachian State (-4.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Both teams looked terrible last week, but I'm not sure Rasheen Ali was healthy. Give me Marshall.
UNLV (-10.5) at New Mexico
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Call me crazy, but this feels low. Give me the Rebels.
(21) Kansas at Iowa State (-2.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This line opened with Kansas as the favorite. I'm surprised to see this large of a swing. I did like the Cyclones in this one, but such a seismic shift usually isn't a good thing. Give me Kansas with the better odds and less juice.
BYU at West Virginia (-9.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
It was so much easier to bet on BYU when you knew Kedon Slovis was going to be making mistakes under center. I'll take the Mountaineers, but I'm a little less convinced now.
Utah State (-2.5) at San Diego State
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
I still don't believe that the Aztecs are that far down. How many teams have we seen come up empty in Reno when it gets cold up there in the mountains? This is on the beach! Give me the Aztecs.
Purdue at (3) Michigan (-32.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Did they spy on Purdue? Asking for the betting public here? Probably. Give me Michigan.
(5) Washington (-2.5) at (20) USC
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
I'm still taking the Huskies. This might be the worst defense Alex Grinch has ever coached, which is saying a lot.
Kentucky (-3.5) at Mississippi State
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
Cowbells can only do so much, especially if Devin Leary is feeling it. Give me Kentucky.
SMU (-11.5) at Rice
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
SMU's offense has been much better lately, but I don't buy this. Give me Rice to keep it within 10.
(14) LSU at Alabama (-3.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
This line is down a staggering five points. Look...Jayden Daniels is probably the best quarterback out there, but he hasn't faced a secondary like this. Alabama wins, probably by 6-10 points. Roll Tide!
Miami (FL) (-4.5) at North Carolina State
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
Yes, it's in Raleigh, but this is a lost season for the Pack. Miami has rallied around their colossal blunder. Give me the Canes.
Western Kentucky (-8.5) at UTEP
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
This is a get-right game for the Hilltoppers. WKU BIG!
Stanford at Washington State (-13.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This feels a touch high, but I'm not betting on Stanford. Wazzu with almost no confidence.
(16) Oregon State (-13.5) at Colorado
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I get the feeling Colorado hangs around for a while. Say Beavs by 10 or so.
Boise State at Fresno State (-3.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
What can Mikey Keene do for you? He can probably beat Boise State. Give me Fresno.
(19) UCLA (-2.5) at Arizona
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Ethan Garbers is looking good for the Bruins. Will the return of Jayden de Laura upset the delicate balance of Arizona? I see why the line is up, but it's not up too far. Give me UCLA, but I don't really trust it.
I'm living on the two-line with 24 of those bets. Six minimums is a little high for me, but this is the busiest week of the season so far. I still have 19 three-pointers to make some money on. I maxed out five lines today and have eight four-pointers, which is normal. Good luck out there!
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