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Mike's CFB betting picks against the spread for Week 2 of the bowl games (12/26/23-1/1/24). Every FBS college football game analyzed with his top wagers and NCAA best bets.
It was a light week for bowls last week, but we are making up for it this week. We have at least three college football games every day from now until New Year's Day except for Sunday. We'll let the pros have one day to themselves so long as we get the rest of the week. I'm sure going to miss college football when it's done and we are coming very close to that time. This is my last picks article of the season. I'll do the championship odds with the DFS picks and have a 2023 season recap, but then college football changes in the worst way.
I will pick every college football bowl game. Not a top-five. Not a top-10. All of them. Big deal, right? Lots of people make picks. Well, I do them all against the spread. I take the odds of each game and average them out at all the Vegas casinos and round to the nearest half. There will be no ties here. Ties are for the other (European) football.
I also assign a point value based on the confidence I have in each pick. So a score of 1 means that I have little to no confidence, and a score of 5 is one I would place a decent wager on. I keep track of my record and my points from year to year. Here are this year's results so far. I am still in the black on the season and I plan on finishing that way. I hit the Army-Navy game to bring me to 369-382 heading into the bowls with 35 points. I'm aiming for that elusive .500 record!
CFB Betting Picks Overview
As we all know, this is not an exact science. Due to the volatile nature of betting in general, this is for entertainment purposes only. I cannot be responsible for the loss of money, possessions, spouses, or limbs because of my picks. I am a simple man. I can't have that on my conscience.
I will be going to the betting window with all of you as well. Most of these I won't actually wager on at the casinos, but I have been known to stagger around 50 games in a week at various online places just because I love the action. Whatever your betting limits or needs, I can at least give you which way I'm leaning.
CFB Betting Picks for Bowl Week 2 (December 26 - January 1)
Quick Lane Bowl: Bowling Green vs. Minnesota (-3.5) at Detroit, MI
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
I do think that the defection of Athan Kaliakmanis will help the Minnesota passing game, but they are still a little thin at running back. However, freshman Darius Taylor recommitted to the Gophers and he had some big games earlier this season. If Terion Stewart misses this game, Bowling Green has no chance. If he plays, I don't see Minnesota covering.
SERVPRO First Responder Bowl: Texas State (-3.5) vs. Rice at Dallas, TX
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
JT Daniels was forced to retire because of another concussion, but AJ Padgett played very well down the stretch for the Owls. Both sides should have a good turnout in Dallas, so it will truly be a neutral site game. I like what I've seen from TJ Finley and the Texas State offense, but I don't know. I feel like Rice keeps this within a field goal. Give me Rice.
Guaranteed Rate Bowl: Kansas (-12.5) vs. UNLV at Phoenix, AZ
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
It still seems unlikely that Jalon Daniels plays for a plethora of reasons, but we all know by now that Jason Bean can run this team. All eyes will be on Devin Neal. If he opts out, I feel far less confident about Kansas covering. If Neal plays, I'll lay four on this one. If not, I'm dropping it to two.
GoBowling.com Military Bowl: Virginia Tech (-10.5) vs. Tulane at Annapolis, MD
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This game is a lot closer to Tech and Michael Pratt has opted out.
Honestly, the Tulane offense hasn't played that well with Pratt in the last month or so. This Virginia Tech team was damn awful against Virginia. It was brutal. That's a terrifyingly low floor. That said, they were rolling before that game. I'm flipping to Tech, but that's a lot of points. I'll take Tulane.
Duke's Mayo Bowl: North Carolina vs. West Virginia (-6.5) at Charlotte, NC
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
The Tar Heels have had a ton of opt-outs, most notably Drake Maye. This is from a team that completely collapsed in November anyway. They are not winning this game, even though it is basically a home game. Give me WVU.
DirecTV Holiday Bowl: (15) Louisville (-6.5) vs. USC at San Diego, CA
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
I do expect a USC defense that has been away from Alex Grinch for a month now to be better. How can they not? Louisville returns most players and USC loses Caleb Williams and Brenden Rice. This Louisville defense is going to feast, but it could take the offense a while to pull away. I'm taking Louisville, but they're going to make me sweat it.
TaxAct Texas Bowl: Oklahoma State vs. Texas A&M (-1.5) at Houston, TX
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
Why in the world is A&M favored? Ollie Gordon is far and away the best player on the field. Give me the Pokes.
Wasabi Fenway Bowl: (24) SMU (-10.5) at Boston College at Boston, MA
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
Okay, so this isn't on campus, but Boston College at a bowl game in Boston is a home game. It won't matter. SMU looked even better without Preston Stone at QB. Give me the Ponies.
Bad Boy Mowers Pinstripe Bowl: Miami (FL) (-1.5) vs. Rutgers at Bronx, NY
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
This feels like a game that Miami should lose. Tropical team playing in a cold northern city. The starting QB is in the transfer portal, so you have a backup against a strong defense. Oh, and it's basically a road game. Give me Rutgers.
Pop Tarts Bowl: (18) North Carolina State vs. (25) Kansas State (-2.5) at Orlando, FL
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
I still don't buy this. I know that Avery Johnson with a full month of practice with the first team will be fine. Will Howard was important to this team, but not that important. This has everything to do with the NC State defense and Brennan Armstrong. Kevin Concepcion is the wild card and gives the Pack a strong edge.
Valero Alamo Bowl: (12) Arizona (-2.5) vs. (14) Oklahoma at San Antonio, TX
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
I liked Arizona outright even before Dillon Gabriel bolted for Phil Knight's money. This could get ugly considering Oklahoma's defense gave up 45 to a below-average TCU offense in the finale. Arizona wins BIG.
TaxSlayer Gator Bowl: (22) Clemson (-5.5) vs. Kentucky at Jacksonville, FL
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
This isn't faith in Cade Klubnik. This is faith in the ability of the Clemson defense to lock down an average-at-best offense. Give me the Tigers.
Tony The Tiger Sun Bowl: (19) Oregon State vs. (16) Notre Dame (-6.5) at El Paso, TX
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
What could have been a good game is now a game between backup quarterbacks since high-profile transfers Sam Hartman and D.J. Uiagalelei left again. I'll take the Irish, but I have little faith in it.
AutoZone Liberty Bowl: Iowa State (-9.5) at Memphis
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Memphis gets a home bowl game, but I'm not sure it matters. Neither does Vegas. The secret is out about the Cyclones and stud freshman RB Abu Sama III. Give me the Cyclones.
Goodyear Cotton Bowl: (7) Ohio State (-1.5) vs. (9) Missouri at Jerry World
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Kyle McCord transfers to Syracuse and Ohio State is still favored. Fine by me. I liked the Tigers anyway for a variety of reasons. One of them is that Brady Cook doesn't beat himself. Give me the Tigers.
Chick-Fil-A Peach Bowl: (11) Mississippi vs. (10) Penn State (-3.5) at Atlanta, GA
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
In a situation of good offense against good defense, good defense usually wins. Unless Drew Allar grew up a lot in the last month, it won't matter. Give me Ole Miss outright.
TransPerfect Music City Bowl: Auburn (-6.5) vs. Maryland at Nashville, TN
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
I didn't see Taulia Tagovailoa opting out of this game, but here we are. This line swung by five points and it likely will go farther. I like Auburn for anything under 10 now.
Capital One Orange Bowl: (6) Georgia (-16.5) vs. (5) Florida State at Miami, FL
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Without Jordan Travis, there is no way that this is the fifth-best team in the country. Georgia is going to win and probably win big, but this big? Maybe not. Give me the Florida State defense to make this respectable.
Barstool Sports Arizona Bowl: Toledo vs. Wyoming (-3.5) at Tucson, AZ
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
This is Craig Bohl's swan song, huh? Give me Wyoming.
ReliaQuest Bowl: Wisconsin vs. (13) LSU (-9.5) at Tampa, FL
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
Either the line was way off on this to begin with or Jayden Daniels shouldn't have won the Heisman. Daniels opted out of this game and the line only fell 1.5 points. That's nuts. I like LSU less now, but come on...Wisconsin is terrible. I'm taking the Tigers. Their defense needs to face an offense like this to get their confidence back.
VRBO Fiesta Bowl: (23) Liberty vs. (8) Oregon (-17.5) at Glendale, AZ
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Not only does Liberty get a bad draw, but they also get the one NFL prospect who will play in a bowl game. That's absolutely brutal. Give me the Ducks.
Cheez-It Citrus Bowl: (17) Iowa vs. (21) Tennessee (-7.5) at Orlando, FL
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
That hook is making me bet far less on this than I normally would. Half a point on an Iowa line is like 10 points on any other team's line. Give me the Vols, but I'm lowering the bet.
Prudential Rose Bowl: (4) Alabama vs. (1) Michigan (-1.5) at Pasadena, CA
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
If there's one team playing better than Michigan right now, it's Alabama (okay...and Washington). This was never a question of whether Alabama belonged in the playoff or not. They do and they prove it. Roll Tide!
Allstate Sugar Bowl: (3) Texas (-4.5) vs. (2) Washington
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
If I have to choose between Michael Penix Jr. and Quinn Ewers, the answer is always going to be Michael Penix Jr. Washington by a touchdown!
I only had one minimum bet out of the 43 games, so I am going big or going home. I took it easy with only nine two-pointers as well. I hit the middle hard with 16 three-pointers and 14 four-pointers, by far the highest total of the year. I maxed out three bets, one of them being in the playoff. Scared money doesn't make money, right?
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