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Mike's CFB betting picks against the spread for Week 1 of the bowl games (12/16-24/22). Every FBS college football game analyzed with his top wagers and NCAA best bets.
What makes bowl season so great? Maybe it's the fact that we have now had three weeks since wall-to-wall football on Saturday. We miss it! It's not as big as the regular season, but it gives us something to look forward to every single day to get us through the holidays. The NFL makes the amateurs take Sunday off (bullies), but we have at least one game from now until January 2 on the six other days of the week. Are you ready? I am!
I will pick every college football bowl game. Not a top five. Not a top 10. All of them. Big deal, right? Lots of people make picks. Well, I do them all against the spread. I take the odds of each game and average them out at all the Vegas casinos and round to the nearest half. There will be no ties here. Ties are for the other (European) football.
I also assign a point value based on the confidence I have in each pick. So a score of 1 means that I have little to no confidence, and a score of 5 is one I would place a decent wager on. I keep track of my record and my points back from year to year. Here are this year's results so far. It was a trying season. My nemesis Eastern Michigan made a bowl (yikes!), but the other real thorn in my side (Arizona) did not. I'm here for redemption. Let's get it!
CFB Betting Picks Overview
As we all know, this is not an exact science. Due to the volatile nature of betting in general, this is for entertainment purposes only. I cannot be responsible for the loss of money, possessions, spouses, or limbs because of my picks. I am a simple man. I can't have that on my conscience.
I will be going to the betting window with all of you as well. Most of these I won't actually wager on at the casinos, but I have been known to stagger around 50 games in a week at various online places just because I love the action. Whatever your betting limits or needs, I can at least give you which way I'm leaning.
CFB Betting Picks for Bowl Week 1 (December 16-24)
Hometown Lenders Bahamas Bowl: Miami (OH) vs. UAB(-10.5) at Nassau, Bahamas
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
There have been conspicuously few reports regarding DeWayne McBride possibly missing this game. Look, Jermaine Brown is a really good back as well. The Blazers won't' lose their ability to run the ball. However, I am lowering the bet a touch. The stench of blowout isn't as strong as it once was. Give me UAB, but the Redhawks will likely hang around for a while.
Duluth Trading Cure Bowl: (25)UTSA(-1.5) vs. (24)Troy at Orlando, FL
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
The Roadrunners aren't losing this game in what will be the final one for Frank Harris and Zakhari Franklin. They are going to have to work for it though. Troy is a good team with a tough defense, but I've been riding the Roadrunners to a lot of betting slip wins for the last three years. I'm not stopping here. Meep meep!
Wasabi Fenway Bowl: Cincinnati vs. Louisville(-1.5) at Boston, MA
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
I thought I was going to pull a fast one and take the Cardinals when everyone was leaning Bearcats. Then Luke Fickell had to go take the Wisconsin job. So much for that! Still, this spread is so low that I'm not afraid of it considering I liked Malik Cunningham and the Cardinals anyway.
Cricket Celebration Bowl: Jackson State(-13.5) vs. North Carolina Central
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I don't usually do this, but we now have a finite number of college football games left and I'm already feeling the depression setting in. I'm going to enjoy – and bet – everything that's left! I think Coach Prime and the Tigers finish what they started. Give me Jackson State.
SRS Distribution Las Vegas Bowl: Florida vs. (14)Oregon State(-10.5) at Las Vegas, NV
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Florida loses Anthony Richardson to the draft and they have to leave the state of Florida. That doesn't happen often. Give me Oregon State, but that half is keeping me from maxing this out.
Jimmy Kimmel Bowl: Washington State vs. Fresno State(-3.5) at Inglewood, CA
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
I was hoping the bettors would be on the major conference team here again, but no such luck. Jake Haener is playing. That's enough for me! Give me Fresno!
Lending Tree Bowl: Rice vs. Southern Mississippi(-6.5) at Mobile, AL
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
This feels low. I know the Eagles don't really blow anyone out, but Rice collapsed after a decent start. I have a feeling this gets ugly. The Eagles are a very different team with Trey Lowe at quarterback.
New Mexico Bowl: SMU(-3.5) vs. BYU at Albuquerque, NM
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
This still feels low. That BYU defense was gouged by every decent offense they played. SMU is far beyond decent. Give me the Ponies!
Frisco Bowl: North Texas vs. Boise State(-10.5) at Frisco, TX
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I don't know...this feels high. Boise can, and will, be a very good team at some point under Taylen Green. I think North Texas hangs around, especially since this is basically a home game for the Mean Green. They can basically walk to the stadium...
Myrtle Beach Bowl: Marshall(-10.5) vs. Connecticut at Conway, SC
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Again, this one feels a touch high. UConn wasn't supposed to be anywhere near a bowl this year. Jim Mora Jr. got this team to believe in themselves and it showed on the field. I don't think UConn wins, but they didn't fight to get to a bowl just to get blown out. Give me the Huskies.
Famous Idaho Potato Bowl: Eastern Michigan vs. San Jose State(-3.5) at Boise, ID
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Here we go. Whatever I pick, pick the opposite. I'm 1-10 when picking the Eagles this season. The fact that it's in cold weather territory has me a bit worried, but San Jose State's defense is good enough to lock them down. Give me the Spartans.
RoofClaim.com Boca Raton Bowl: Liberty vs. Toledo(-4.5) at Boca Raton, FL
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
I'm on the fence with this one. I picked Liberty, but with Hugh Freeze taking the Auburn job, it could disrupt what made the Flames good. They stumbled at the end of the season, but will reportedly have Dae Dae Hunter back. I'm taking Liberty, but I might not even bet on this one. If I do, it will be light.
R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl: Western Kentucky vs. South Alabama(-4.5) at New Orleans, LA
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Austin Reed has entered the transfer portal, but so far plans on playing in this game. Will his team be behind him or will there be some sour feelings? I like USA anyway, especially since the drive from Moblie to New Orleans is a pretty quick one. Give me the Jaguars.
Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl: Baylor(-5.5) vs. Air Force at Fort Worth, TX
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I was hoping that the bettors would underestimate Baylor and that hasn't been the case at all. Still, this is practically a home game for the Bears. The up-and-down play of Blake Shapen was a problem for the Bears. If that isn't fixed, I have my questions as to whether Baylor can pull away. I think the Bears win outright, but those points worry me a little. The Bears have given up more than four yards per carry and at least 115 yards on the ground in each of the last five games and seven of the last eight. Give me Air Force. I don't think they get covered here.
Radiance Technologies Independence Bowl: Louisiana vs. Houston(-6.5) at Shreveport, LA
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
This is kind of a home game for the Cajuns, but does it matter? Tank Dell and Clayton Tune are playing. Houston should be good for a touchdown here. The only reason this isn't maxed is that I don't fully trust the Houston defense.
Union Home Mortgage Gasparilla Bowl: Wake Forest(-1.5) vs. Missouri at Tampa, FL
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
Sam Hartman is going to play in this game before either going pro or transferring. I honestly think that the Missouri defense will have him regretting that decision. This is a good defense and Missouri quarterback Brady Cook finished strong after a rough start. I like Missouri outright.
EasyPost Hawaii Bowl: Middle Tennessee State vs. San Diego State(-6.5) at Honolulu, HI
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
MTSU isn't getting a lot of credit here, but they are a dangerous team. Still, I like the Aztecs for anything under a touchdown, but they'll have to work for it.
Quick Lane Bowl: Bowling Green(-3.5) vs. New Mexico State at Detroit, MI
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
I've been riding the Falcons all season long and I'm not going to stop now! Give me Bowling Green!
Stay tuned for the rest of the bowl picks against the spread! I'm doing them weekly just in case we get more players opting out on short notice. You may not think the spreads move much after they open, but they routinely do during the bowls.
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