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It was another crazy week! Michigan State suffered their worst loss as a ranked team and proved unequivocally that any playoff over four teams will ruin the best regular season in sports. Wake got mauled by Clemson. Nebraska lost another one-score game. Duck U got run out of the Top 3 by a Utah team that all of the sudden looks very good.
Auburn fell to the Gamecocks, which was surprising even without Bo Nix. LSU didn't even score the amount of points that they were favored by. The Bruins hung 62 on their crosstown rivals. We have the stage set for another massive Michigan-Ohio State game. Bedlam is going to be very interesting this year, and could even happen two weeks in a row!
All 62 of the games I picked played. I think this may have been another rough week. Before we get to that, let's get started on a positive note with the picks for Thursday. The college football Gods have blessed us with two Thanksgiving Day games before a very unique weekend with 15 games on Friday and 45 on Saturday.
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CFB Betting Picks 11/25:
Fresno State(-7.5) at San Jose State
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I just get this feeling that San Jose State is going to show up, especially after they got curb stomped by Utah State. The more I think about this, the more I feel like I'm going to get it wrong. Weird things happen in rivalry week. Not this weird though. Give me Fresno. They have too much talent on offense.
(9)Mississippi at Mississippi State(-1.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
Vegas thinks those cowbells are going to be a problem. I think Will Rogers is going to be more of a problem. Ole Miss last won in StarkVegas back in 2017 in a game that they really weren't supposed to win. You could argue that this year is the same. I've had real problems with the Egg Bowl in recent years. I expect a very interesting game here and a close one. I just don't know if the Bulldogs win outright. Give me Ole Miss.
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CFB Betting Picks Week 12 Results:
I promised transparency this year, and you will get it, warts and all. I feel like I had a really bad week. I went heavy on Northern Illinois and Baylor, but Wake and Wisconsin hurt the bottom line. Winners against the spread will be in bold. My result will follow.
Toledo(-6.5) at Ohio: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
Well, if Ohio couldn't stop Bryant Koback, why should Toledo? Koback rocked DFS slates on Tuesday with 203 yards and four touchdowns as the Rockets rolled.
Western Michigan(-5.5) at Eastern Michigan: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This was a nice performance by the EMU defense. the emergence of Jawon Hamilton as the Eagles' lead back helped immensely.
Bowling Green at Miami(OH)(-16.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
That Bowling Green defense is literally painful to watch.
Central Michigan at Ball State(-1.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
The Ball State offense (or lack thereof) costs me again.
Northern Illinois(-1.5) at Buffalo: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
I was sweating this one when the Huskies let the Bulls back into it. This shouldn't have gotten to the point where they needed overtime to win. The defense looked strong in the first three quarters.
Louisville(-19.5) at Duke: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
The last two weeks that Malik Cunningham has had are going to make him a lot of money. A week after he ran for over 200 yards, he did it again while throwing for over 300 and accounting for seven of Louisville's nine touchdowns.
Southern Mississippi at Louisiana Tech(-15.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Quarterback? We don't need no stinking quarterback! Okay Southern Miss, I believe you. Running back Frank Gore Jr. threw a 39-yard touchdown pass in this one. It seems unfair to call him just a running back right now.
Memphis at (24)Houston(-8.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
The Houston defense looks a lot different now than they did about a month ago. This team could throw a scare into Cincinnati in the AAC Championship game.
Arizona at Washington State(-15.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
Unfortunately for Arizona, this was out of control early in the second half. There's not a lot of good to take away from this one.
Air Force at Nevada(-1.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Carson Strong threw four more touchdowns and Nevada still lost. Stop me if you've heard this before. The Nevada defense did their job to get this to overtime by shutting out Air Force in the fourth quarter. 17 of the 41 points allowed were in overtime, so it's not all on the Nevada defense this time around.
(19)San Diego State(-10.5) at UNLV: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
UNLV gave the Aztecs everything they wanted in this one. Justin Rogers came in in relief of Cameron Friel and proceeded to throw for 305 yards. Not your typical Rebels team, huh? They really didn't have a choice. Charles Williams got nothing on this SDSU front.
(7)Michigan State at (4)Ohio State(-19.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
They started engraving C.J. Stroud's name on the Heisman Trophy about 20 minutes into this one. This was a statement by the Buckeyes not only to the committee, but to Michigan too.
(10)Wake Forest at Clemson(-4.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
Why didn't they wrap D.J. Uiagaleiei's finger earlier? That seemed to help! Clemson may finally have their go-to receiver in Beaux Collins. Justyn Ross is a force, but his inability to stay on the field is a problem.
Iowa State at (13)Oklahoma(-3.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
Charlie Kolar terrorized the Oklahoma linebackers, but the Sooners did a good job limiting Breece Hall. Everything he got he had to work for. Caleb Williams struggled mightily again. Oklahoma's defense is the only reason they were able to pull this off.
New Mexico State at Kentucky(-35.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
This was a nice game of pitch-and-catch between Will Levis and Wan'dale Robinson and a methodical beatdown for the Wildcats.
Florida Atlantic at Western Kentucky(-10.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Another 470 yards and six touchdowns for Bailey Zappe. This offense is fun to watch if you get a chance before bowl season.
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Florida State at Boston College(-1.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
The Seminoles held off a furious effort by Phil Jurkovec and the Eagles in the fourth quarter to keep their bowl hopes alive.
Purdue(-11.5) at Northwestern: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
A switch flipped in Aidan O'Connell when he was given the quarterback job full time.
Rutgers at Penn State(-17.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Where was Christian Veilleux last time Sean Clifford was hurt? He could still move the offense! As per usual, it was a dominant performance by the Penn State defense.
Massachusetts at Army(-36.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
This was by far the best game UMass has played all season. They had a chance to win this about halfway through the fourth quarter before they collapsed for good.
Texas at West Virginia(-2.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
Let's take a trip back in time. The year was 1956. Elvis Presley made his first television appearance in the U.S. Grace Kelly marries the Prince of Monaco. The polio vaccine becomes available to the public. The interstate highway system is created. It was also the last time the Texas football team lost six games in a row. It's games like this that let us think that maybe Jarret Doege is good. Don't be fooled. Texas is just that bad right now.
South Florida at Tulane(-5.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Tulane put up four touchdowns in the first quarter alone! The Bulls never had a chance.
Kent State(-13.5) at Akron: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
It's amazing how bad Akron looks on Saturdays. Someone get them back to Tuesday or Wednesday immediately!
Texas State at Coastal Carolina(-24.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
This was the kind of warmup that Grayson McCall needed to get back into the flow of things. He threw for five more touchdowns, but I'm more concerned with the CCU defense (again).
Illinois at (17)Iowa(-12.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Iowa had this covered after a defensive touchdown inside of two minutes remaining. They let the Illini score in less than a minute to blow the cover once again.
Arkansas State at Georgia State(-16.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Layne Hatcher played another good game, but it still wasn't enough. The Red Wolves had no answer for the Georgia State run game.
Georgia Tech at (8)Notre Dame(-17.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
I showed up to the bar about two minutes after kickoff in this one. I immediately had to bring this up and make sure I wasn't enough of a dumbass to pick Georgia Tech. I was..... The Irish got their biggest win in about 20 years to give Cincinnati the push they need to crack the top four.
Washington(-6.5) at Colorado: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Weird things happen at Folsom Field. This was nothing weird. This was just the Colorado defense stepping up and dominating the Washington run game. Forcing Dylan Morris to throw resulted in a strong stat line for him, but it also increased the errors that the Huskies made and allowed the Ralphies to win one last game at Folsom for the seniors.
(21)Arkansas at (2)Alabama(-20.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This was a hell of a performance by Arkansas, in Tuscaloosa no less. Bryce Young needed a school-record 559 passing yards and five touchdowns to win this for the Tide.
SMU at (5)Cincinnati(-11.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
This is what everyone who believes in Cincinnati has longed to see all season. SMU is a solid team and they looked nothing of the sort in this one. That's all on the Bearcats. This is a team that beat Georgia last year with pretty much the same team. This is going to go a long way towards Cincinnati getting their invite to the party.
(6)Michigan(-15.5) at Maryland: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
The Michigan offense needed a game like this after being slowed to a trickle by Penn State last week. They needed to get their confidence back before facing Ohio State. 59 points should do the trick.
Nebraska at (15)Wisconsin(-8.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
This Nebraska team is every bit as insufferable as its fans. They have cost me more money (and pride) than any team in the history of betting this season. As an Oklahoma fan, I'm predestined to go green when I see that shade of red. That kind of went away when the Big 12(10) took away the rivalry. It's back with a vengeance after my 1-10 record picking Nebraska this year.
Virginia at (18)Pittsburgh(-14.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
I should have raised this when Armstrong was ruled in, but I'm scarred by that Virginia defense. It was fun to watch Kenny Pickett and Armstrong go head-to-head, but it was Jordan Addison who stole the show.
UAB at (22)UTSA(-4.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
As I expected, this was a tough game for UTSA. The defense did a great job in the second half and Frank Harris put the victory away with a touchdown in the final seconds. We still have three unbeaten teams!
Marshall(-14.5) at Charlotte: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I think I should get an extra point for predicting the big game from Rasheen Ali. 203 yards and three touchdowns is not a bad day at the office.
Old Dominion at Middle Tennessee State(-3.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This is quite the streak by the Monarchs. They are running roughshod through C-USA and are on the brink of being bowl eligible. Not bad for a team that lost their first two games against FBS teams by a combined 60 points.
Minnesota(-7.5) at Indiana: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Minnesota didn't look particularly good in this game. Indiana is just that bad right now.
East Carolina(-3.5) at Navy: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
This was one I probably shouldn't have got. ECU outplayed Navy for most of the night. They still got the win, but a half finally goes my way.
Appalachian State(-9.5) at Troy: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
How in the world did App State lose to Louisiana by four touchdowns?
(14)BYU(-19.5) at Georgia Southern: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
The Eagles limited the possessions just enough in the second half to not get covered.
Syracuse at (20)North Carolina State(-11.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Sean Tucker is a very good player on a very average team. I almost hope the Orange beat Pitt so we can see him in a bowl game.
Florida(-8.5) at Missouri: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
I suppose Florida holding Tyler Badie to 146 rushing yards is a win for them. The real win was Missouri going for two and the win in overtime. Not only did it make the Tigers bowl eligible, but it put the Gators in a must-win situation against a hot Florida State team.
Rice at UTEP(-9.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
I'm not used to halves going my way. Gavin Hardison threw for a career-best 366 yards in this one. I'm hoping that someone invites the Miners to a bowl. They've earned it.
Connecticut at Central Florida(-30.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Yep.....UCF covered with a backup quarterback and without their best receiver. That's UConn for you....
Louisiana at Liberty(-4.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
It has been a long time since Liberty suffered a beatdown like this. The last team to beat them by four touchdowns was Virginia on November 23 of 2019. The last time they lost by more than that was in cupcake week against Auburn on November 17 of 2018. Malik Willis wasn't on either of those teams.
Kansas at TCU(-21.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
It looks like Jalon Daniels is the quarterback of the future for Kansas. They fell just short in this one, but the offense once again moved the ball well. That's all Kansas fans wanted to see as the season comes to a close.
Temple at Tulsa(-21.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
This was a nice scored practice for Tulsa.....
UCLA(-3.5) at USC: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
This was easy money. This USC team has nothing left with Drake London done for the season.
(11)Baylor at Kansas State(EVEN): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
Baylor deserves a lot more respect than they are getting. This is a strong defensive unit even if the offense does struggle at times.
Auburn(-7.5) at South Carolina: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Was Auburn looking ahead? T.J. Finley was solid enough and Tank Bigsby was his namesake. This was a game they should have won.
North Texas(-10.5) at Florida International: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
Another strong defensive performance by North Texas. It's hard to believe that this is the same team that gave up 49 to Marshall and nearly lost to Rice.
California(-1.5) at Stanford: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Cal dominated this game from the second quarter on. This was the largest margin of victory for either team since Stanford stomped Cal by 50 back in 2013. It was the worst loss by Stanford in The Big Game since 2004. Some dude named Aaron Rodgers was the Cal quarterback in that game.
(3)Oregon at (23)Utah(-3.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Sometimes Vegas really knows what they're talking about. Sometimes Oregon just doesn't show up. All of the injuries to skill players certainly hurts, but there is no excuse for not really putting up a fight. Unless Utah is just that much better than Oregon. I suppose it's possible. Utah cycled through a few players at QB and RB before they finally landed on the right combination of Cameron Rising and Tavion Thomas.
Vanderbilt at (12)Mississippi(-36.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Ole Miss was present and accounted for in the first half. The second half? Not so much....
South Alabama at Tennessee(-27.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
The Jaguars didn't get Jake Bentley back, but even he couldn't have saved them from Tennessee in this one. The Vols offense was firing on all cylinders.
Virginia Tech at Miami(FL)(-7.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
The Hurricanes let that Florida State loss sting a little, then they took care of business against the Hokies. It's not often that we see so much growth from a quarterback during the season, but that is what's happening with Tyler Van Dyke. It's scary to think of how much better he could get by next season or by the time he's ready for the NFL Draft in two years.
(9)Oklahoma State(-9.5) at Texas Tech: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
This Oklahoma State defense might be the best unit west of the Mississippi. We'll find out on Saturday night!
Wyoming at Utah State(-5.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
Where did that come from? Levi Williams looked like Josh Allen, the last QB wunderkind that Craig Bohl lured to Laramie. Xazavian Valladay and Titus Swen had their way with the Aggies defense. Total domination by the Wyoming offense. I don't know if I've ever seen that unit look this good.
Louisiana-Monroe at LSU(-29.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
It's a rough season for LSU when they even choke on cupcakes. They still couldn't really run the ball on the Warhawks, a team that was allowing 165 rushing yards per game going into the LSU game. The Tigers only amassed 92 with 2.42 yards per carry. The only team worse against the Warhawks was Deion Sanders' Jackson State team.
New Mexico at Boise State(-27.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
George Holani hit triple digits. Boise dominated. Rinse. Repeat.
Arizona State(-2.5) at Oregon State: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Thanks to Utah, this is going to be a very interesting Civil War this year. Well, so long as Washington takes out Washington State in the Apple Cup.
Colorado State(-2.5) at Hawaii: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
It was well past 2am on the East coast, but man, I hope you guys were watching that fourth quarter with me! 42 total points were scored in that quarter alone, but the furious Colorado State comeback fell just short.
College Football Betting Season Results:
I was afraid I had a bad week, but it turned out to be my best week of the season, no thanks to Nebraska. I went 37-25 this week to finally get me back above .500 at 329-326 on the season. My goal of 55% seems a ways off now. My more realistic goal is to keep it above 50%. That's pretty hard picking every game!
Now it's time to tally up the points. The weekly totals follow the bet. Season totals are in parentheses.
1. 8-3 (54-68) = -14
2. 12-14 (126-135) = -18
3. 10-5 (106-70) = 108
4. 5-1 (26-33) = -28
5. 2-2 (17-20) = -15
I finally made some meaningful money this weekend. I gained 32 points this week, my best week of the season in that regard as well. I finally had a good week in the fours, and my midrange continues to be strong. I am now up 61 points in nearly five years of doing this. We have the largest week of the season this week with 65 games going on. This is what college football is all about!
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