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It was another crazy week! Michigan State and Baylor fall. Wake Forest blows a two touchdown lead in the fourth quarter against the Tarheels for the second straight year. Illinois got their first win in 11 tries against a team ranked in the CFP rankings.
Ohio State struggled with Nebraska. Purdue has more wins against AP top five teams as an unranked team than any other team in history. And Arizona, yes, that Arizona, finally won a game! All it took was a massive COVID outbreak on the fully-vaccinated Cal team. Seriously. That's what kind of divine intervention it took for Arizona to win a game.
There were supposed to be 64 games this weekend, but we have our first COVIDed game of the season between Cal and USC. It has been rescheduled for December 4. Three teams are slumming this week (you again, UMass??). But first, we need to see how week 10 went after we get to the two Friday picks.
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CFB Betting Picks 11/12:
(5)Cincinnati(-23.5) at South Florida
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
The Bearcats haven't covered a line like this in about a month. Why should they start now? Give me USF.
Wyoming at Boise State(-13.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Boise is starting to hit their stride, mostly because the backfield is fully healthy for the first time this year. Give me the Broncos.
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CFB Betting Picks Week 10 Results:
I promised transparency this year, and you will get it, warts and all. I feel like I had a really bad week. I put about 3/4 of my betting for the week on the Wake over and Arizona State, so I came out a little ahead in real life. I don't like to be wrong, but I will admit when I am. Here are the results from week 6. I picked 59 games and all 59 played. Winners against the spread will be in bold. My result will follow.
Ball State(-19.5) at Akron: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
There is a reason I didn't bet this. Honestly, Ball State had no business winning this game. Akron is finally improving noticeably.
Eastern Michigan at Toledo(-8.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This is exactly why I hate picking Toledo. Dequan Finn throws for nearly double his previous career best (461 yards) and they still lose.....
Miami(OH)(-7.5) at Ohio: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
The Redhawks were shut out in the first half, but a failed two-point conversion assured them the loss in spite of Brett Gabbert's 492 yards and five touchdown performance. Not to mention Jack Sorenson hauling in 14 passes for 283 yards. The Redhawks dominated the statistics, but still lost the game.
Northern Illinois at Kent State(-3.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I could mention that I still think NIU wins this outright if Rocky Lombardi doesn't have to leave with a concussion on the last drive. However, his 532 yards prior to that drive still couldn't save the Huskies from their atrocious defense.
Central Michigan at Western Michigan(-10.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
The outright win by the Chipps doesn't surprise me. The win by double digits does. This is the reason why we watch MACtion! Well, that and Lew Nichols III.....
Georgia State at Louisiana(-12.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
I'm still not sure how much better Georgia State in than Texas State. The Cajuns aren't an accurate barometer due to their inconsistency.
Virginia Tech(-2.5) at Boston College: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
The return of Phil Jurkovec was big for BC, but it was the Virginia Tech defense and their inability to stop Pat Garwo III that spelled doom for the Hokies.
Utah(-7.5) at Stanford: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
I said Utah by 23. Boy was I wrong! They won by 45! Sorry for not giving you enough credit, Utah.
Army at Air Force(-2.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
It took overtime for Army to make this bet come true, but the bigger story here is that Army blew another double-digit fourth quarter lead. That's an interesting trend that bears watching.
Missouri at (1)Georgia(-38.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
It did go wrong. A fourth quarter Bulldogs touchdown that would have covered this got called back and Missouri ran it up by kicking a field goal. Go for the touchdown!
(5)Ohio State(-14.5) at Nebraska: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
Nebraska should be far beyond moral victories, but the fan base has been curiously positive. I'm not sure they should be. Wisconsin is bulldozing people right now, something the Buckeyes still haven't gotten the hang of. The moral of the story here is: don't follow me on Nebraska picks. 1-for-8 against the spread on these jerkoffs this year.
(9)Wake Forest at North Carolina(-2.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
Well, at least I bet the over more than the spread. I'm still shocked Wake blew another double digit fourth quarter lead to the Heels. I'm sure they can't either.
Liberty at (16)Mississippi(-9.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Yes, Jerrion Ealy is still there. Yes, Dannis Jackson might be the next great Ole Miss receiver. All is good in Oxford. This game wasn't nearly as close as the score suggests.
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Illinois at (20)Minnesota(-14.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
I've seen a lot of bad games from Minnesota over the last five years or so, but this might be the worst. I do have to give credit to the Illinois run defense. Not many teams have been able to shut down the Gophers run game lately.
(25)Pittsburgh(-21.5) at Duke: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
It's a good thing for my Pitt bets that Kenny Pickett takes this Heisman run seriously....
Louisiana Tech at UAB(-12.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
You can't blame this loss on JT Head. He filled in nicely. It was the Bulldog defense letting DeWayne McBride trample them for 210 yards and four touchdowns on just 14 carries.
Kansas State(-24.5) at Kansas: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Okay, Kansas. I give up. The only good thing that I can say for them is that it's basketball season.
SMU(-4.5) at Memphis: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
It turns out that maybe Ulysses Bentley IV is a little more important to the Mustang offense than most think.
Georgia Tech at Miami(FL)(-10.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
The Hurricanes offense looked great. The defense looked the polar opposite. Miami is in trouble when they can't force turnovers.
Appalachian State(-21.5) at Arkansas State: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
I should have went higher on this. The Mountaineers had one bad game and I need to quit holding it against them.
North Texas(-4.5) at Southern Mississippi: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
It still took 31 second half points for North Texas to pull away. The Eagles hanging with someone – anyone – for a half is still news.
Temple at East Carolina(-14.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I do admit that there is some weird part of me that wants to see Temple play UConn. I can't quite explain it, but at the same time, I do realize that it's a sickness.
Louisiana-Monroe at Texas State(-3.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
I knew better than to put that much on the Warhawks.....
California(-12.5) at Arizona: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
I should have changed the bet, or at least lessened it, when I heard about the COVID cases. Oh well. We still have to give Arizona credit. A win is a win is a win.
(3)Michigan State(-2.5) at Purdue: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
Okay, Purdue. Now let's see you win some games that you should win....
Tulsa at (6)Cincinnati(-22.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
The main enjoyment that I got out of this was listening to all of those that were whining about Cincinnati not being in the top four of the CFP rankings either retracting their statements or shutting up for a while. I promise that at some point style points will matter. How long can the Bearcats milk that Notre Dame win? How many of these close ones does it erase?
Navy at (10)Notre Dame(-20.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This was just a nice methodical beating by the Irish. They understand the concept of style points.
(11)Oklahoma State(-3.5) at West Virginia: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Easy money. Oklahoma State now ascends to second in the conference that no one really wants to win. Oklahoma hasn't lost, but they haven't looked good doing so and the committee drove that home by ranking them eighth. OSU's better conference schedule has been navigated pretty well so far aside from the loss in Ames. The Cowboys and Sooners might be playing two straight weeks. Two weeks of Bedlam? Sign me up!
(12)Baylor(-6.5) at TCU: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
Can we finally admit that maybe, just maybe, Max Duggan was and has been the problem for years now? What a performance by Chandler Morris. Can he do it again? Look, if the dude throws for 462 against a defense like Baylor, I have to think it's more than possible. It's likely.
(13)Auburn at (14)Texas A&M(-4.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
The road Bo Nix from 2019 and 2020 showed up. So did the A&M defense.
(21)Wisconsin(-12.5) at Rutgers: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
The only thing that surprised me about this game was the three passing touchdowns from Graham Mertz.
Rice at Charlotte(-6.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
It took overtime, but Chris Reynolds and Charlotte finally pulled it out.....and I'm really glad they had the ball first.
Middle Tennessee State at Western Kentucky(-16.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Bailey Zappe did throw four passing touchdowns, but the 281 passing yards is way under his average.
Penn State(-10.5) at Maryland: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I feel bad for Taulia Tagovailoa. The team is a shambles around him, but he's putting up huge numbers.
South Alabama at Troy(-3.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
Desmond Trotter played well enough in relief of Jake Bentley, but the defense didn't hold up their end of the bargain. Just looking at the stats, you would think South Alabama won this with relative ease.
Colorado State(-3.5) at Wyoming: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
It wasn't even Xazavian Valladay that trampled the Rams into submission. It was backup Titus Swen. Why does Wyoming have a quarterback again?
(17)Mississippi State at Arkansas(-4.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This was a good, strong win for Arkansas, but it wasn't by enough points for me.
(19)North Carolina State(-2.5) at Florida State: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
What McKenzie Milton has gone through to be able to compete in college games again is the stuff legends are made of. Unfortunately, he's a shadow of the player he used to be. I'm glad he's out there, but it hurts to see that he can't do the things that made him great.
Tulane at Central Florida(-12.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
It's weird seeing UCF flounder like this. Of course, this team was a lot different with Dillon Gabriel and Jaylon Robinson leading it. They are still on the better side of average, but they are going to fail to cover a lot of lines like this until the bettors adjust. Vegas has tried.
Utah State(-18.5) at New Mexico State: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
How big of a land was Logan Bonner through the transfer portal? He's great for this system, especially since he knows the offense so well.
Marshall(-1.5) at Florida Atlantic: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
At least I knew I was drawing dead when Marshall ran the opening kickoff back for a touchdown. It let me concentrate on other more important teams.....
Coastal Carolina(-19.5) at Georgia Southern: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
The CCU offense nearly got that shutout, but it was still too close for comfort with Grayson McCall out.
LSU at (2)Alabama(-29.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Okay, I should have known better than to bet that line, but in all fairness, almost no one had it being this close.
Tennessee at (18)Kentucky(EVEN): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This was one of the more entertaining games that we got to watch. Even the wife stayed moderately engaged in this one. That's saying something.
(22)Iowa(-11.5) at Northwestern: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
This was a solid game by Andrew Marty against a strong defense, even in a losing effort. Northwestern can build on that, even if they don't go bowling this year.
Boise State at (23)Fresno State(-4.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
The moral of the story is: don't ever let Boise run for triple digits.
Old Dominion(-2.5) at Florida International: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
The Monarchs responded to their first FBS win since 2018 with 24 first quarter points. Well played, Old Dominion. Well played.
Oregon State(-10.5) at Colorado: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
Colorado and Arizona won in the same week? What is this, 2015?
UNLV at New Mexico(-2.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
It wasn't a huge game for Charles Williams, but he did rewrite the UNLV record book with the most career rushing yards. Arizona, Colorado, and UNLV in the same week? This might be more nutty than anything that happened last year, and we had a lot of crazy things on the field in 2020.
(4)Oregon(-6.5) at Washington: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
That's the game from Travis Dye that Oregon fans were waiting for. If C.J. Verdell has taken his last snap as a Duck, this is exactly what Oregon wanted to see, especially against a good Washington defense. The Ducks are still afloat.
Indiana at (7)Michigan(-20.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
Indiana finally gets a break from the toughest schedule in recent memory this week. It doesn't make them feel any better about getting bullied by Michigan (again) though.
Florida(-18.5) at South Carolina: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
I really didn't see this coming. I also didn't see the Gamecocks having a better record than Florida in November either. The Gamecocks defense is better than advertised, but getting Kevin Harris back is the thing that's going to vault the Cocks into a bowl game.
Clemson(-3.5) at Louisville: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
This is the kind of game that D.J. Uiagaleiei needed to boost his confidence a little. How long can the Cardinals keep riding Malik Cunningham like this? Their lack of a run game is going to get him seriously hurt before the season is over.....
Texas at Iowa State(-6.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Breece Hall didn't clear 200, but it was another strong game for him. It was more important for the Cyclones to get Brock Purdy involved against Texas. They know what Hall can do.
Houston(-13.5) at South Florida: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
I'm not all that surprised. Houston has been a nightmare to bet on all season. Why should they be any different now?
San Jose State at Nevada(-10.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
The Spartans defense deserves a lot of credit here. This might be the worst game we'll see Carson Strong play.
UTSA(-11.5) at UTEP: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
The Roadrunners were money on the late night DFS slate, running up 30 first half points on the Miners. UTEP still played a game that they can feel good about, but this UTSA team is just really good.
USC at Arizona State(-8.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
Way too easy. I'm glad USC's name is still giving us easy lines when it comes to them.
(24)San Diego State(-7.5) at Hawaii: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
That stupid half. I knew exactly how this was going to play out....
College Football Betting Season Results:
Thankfully, this week wasn't as bad as I had originally thought. All of the games I watched and listened to on the way down here turned out about exactly the opposite of what I picked. A decent night slate of games got me back to 28-31 on the week, but that's still a disappointment. That puts me at 263-270 on the season. That's not where I want to be, and I'm afraid that I may have lost a bunch of points this week. My pocketbook took a hit thanks to Wake and Michigan State. The Wake over helped ease the pain though.
Now it's time to tally up the points. The weekly totals follow the bet. Season totals are in parentheses.
1. 7-7 (41-58) = -17
2. 10-13 (102-107) = -10
3. 7-6 (86-57) = 87
4. 2-2 (20-30) = -40
5. 2-3 (14-18) = -20
Surprisingly, I only lost eight points this week, but that was my entire bank so far this season, so I'm back at zero. After ten weeks! I am still up 28 points total over four and a half seasons. We have another big week this week with 61 total games this week. Well, there was supposed to be 61. We are down to 60 with Cal and USC getting COVIDed.
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