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Mike's top college football betting picks and best bets for today's CFB games on 10/28/21 (Week 9). His free picks and top wagers against the spread for every FBS game.
It was another crazy week of upsets. Penn State lost in the bottom of the ninth overtime to Michigan outcast Brandon Peters and an inept Illinois offense. Purdue got punched in the mouth and trampled by a rhino (well.....Badger) named Braelon Allen. Our beloved Chanticleers lost outright in Boone on Wednesday, making me 0-2 on Twitter picks. You should probably unfollow me now.....
We saw highly ranked teams that struggled to pull away from huge underdogs. We saw the Clemson defense give up a 300-yard passing game. Army and Wake Forest broke the scoreboard in Michie Stadium, posting the highest-scoring game there ever. This week promises more of the same!
We only have four of the 53 games this weekend before Saturday. I'll get those covered before we get in depth into the carnage of last week. No one is slumming this week. All 53 games are FBS vs. FBS tilts.
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CFB Betting Picks 10/28 and 10/29:
Troy at (24)Coastal Carolina(-17.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This feels high. Troy's run defense has been among the best in the country and their pass defense isn't too shabby either. This is not the same CCU defensive unit as it was last year. The Chanticleers get back to their winning ways, but I don't think they win by this much.
South Florida at East Carolina(-9.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This line is climbing, presumably because of the uncertain status of Timmy McClain. I don't trust the ECU defense enough to win this by double digits. Give me USF.
Navy at Tulsa(-10.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Too high. Navy lost to Cincinnati by single digits. I'll take the Middies here too with presumably healthier quarterbacks than last week.
UNLV at Nevada(-20.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
That's a lot for a rivalry game. Carson Strong is going to have another big game, but I have every reason to believe that UNLV hangs around. I'll take the Rebels.
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(14)Coastal Carolina(-4.5) at Appalachian State: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
Appalachian State wasn't any less beaten up than they were the week before when they got blasted by Louisiana. This was the worst game CCU has played since last year's Kansas game. Yes, they won that one, but they struggled with a bad Jayhawks team.
Tulane at (21)SMU(-14.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
If SMU's defense is truly turning a corner, look out. Cincinnati's date with destiny might have a problem roughly the size of a small horse here in about a month.
Florida Atlantic(-6.5) at Charlotte: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
N'Kosi Perry had one of the most efficient stat lines that you'll ever see. He completed nine of 11 passes for a staggering 225 yards and three touchdowns. That's more than 20 yards per attempt!
Louisiana(-18.5) at Arkansas State: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
The Cajuns ran App State out of the building, so of course it makes sense that they nearly lose to a one-win team the next week.
San Jose State(-3.5) at UNLV: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
Once of these times UNLV is going to take one of these heartbreakers. Cameron Friel is the best quarterback they have had in quite some time.
Middle Tennessee State(-14.5) at Connecticut: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I should have went higher on this. Chase Cunningham put together a career game here. Unfortunately for him, there's only one UConn.....
Memphis(-1.5) at Central Florida: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
Vegas had to be in the know about Memphis sitting Seth Henigan. That's the only way to explain this line. I still would have picked Memphis, but I wouldn't have placed a max bet on it.
Colorado State(-3.5) at Utah State: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
David Bailey had a huge game and the Rams still lost. Utah State is a much better team without the switching of quarterbacks.
Washington(-17.5) at Arizona: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
So close, Arizona. I feel for you! If Jordan McCloud were healthy, I have no doubt that Arizona would have ended their dreadful losing streak.
(2)Cincinnati(-27.5) at Navy: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
I knew better. I knew that Navy was capable of controlling the ball and playing keep away. They recovered an onside kick with 46 seconds left to really make everyone nervous before throwing an interception two plays later.
(3)Oklahoma(-38.5) at Kansas: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I'm not even upset. I don't think Oklahoma played all that poorly. Kansas used a ball-control offense much the way that Navy did. The Sooners got impatient and frustrated. That led to them being shutout in a half for the first time since 2014. The Jayhawks opened the gates to all and announced it on the radio, so they got their crowd in there to make some noise. Kansas finally has something to be excited about. This is the best game Kansas has played in the last five years or so. If you still don't believe that Caleb Williams is the answer for Oklahoma, take a look at this play. His presence of mind quite possibly saved the game for Oklahoma on this fourth down play.
A WILD 4th-down play from Caleb Williams and Oklahoma 😳 😳 😳
(📍 @NavyFederal) pic.twitter.com/vEIu4CgjGN
— ESPN College Football (@ESPNCFB) October 23, 2021
That is a savvy play that most veterans wouldn't even think to make! I watch roughly 600 college football games a year and have for most of the last decade. I've still never seen anything like that.
Northwestern at (6)Michigan(-23.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
I was feeling good about this at halftime. If only the Wildcats had bothered to come out of the locker room after the break.....
Illinois at (7)Penn State(-23.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I have voiced my opposition to the changes to the overtime rules a few times this year. This was the first time it was really tested and I must admit that it was pretty damn exciting. Not like the seven real overtimes between LSU and Texas A&M back in 2018, but still far more entertaining than I expected.
(16)Wake Forest(-3.5) at Army: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Let's see.....where to begin? We've already discussed the Michie Stadium record. Wake Forest is now off to their best start ever. Army has been playing football for 128 years. They have played 1,272 games. Only once before – to the 1972 Nebraska Cornhuskers – has Army allowed 70 points in a game. This was Wake's highest scoring output since September of 1940 against William Jewell. Who or what is William Jewell? It is a small college in the suburbs of Kansas City named for the philanthropist that gave a $10,000 donation to start the school. Sam Hartman is now being mentioned in the Heisman conversation and now maybe, just maybe, everyone realizes how good Jaquarii Roberson and A.T. Perry are. Maybe.
Massachusetts at Florida State(-35.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
You have to be a really bad team to make Florida State look like their 1993 version. That's UMass for you.
Kansas State at Texas Tech(EVEN): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I'm really happy I got this game at even. Even the -1.5 it closed at for K-State lost the bet. This was a nice comeback for K-State and another really tough loss for Texas Tech. Hey, at least they only gave up half of 50 this time.....
Eastern Michigan(-3.5) at Bowling Green: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
Bowling Green, a team that beat Minnesota, lost by 31 points to an Eastern Michigan team that can't run the ball. Man, I love college football.
Northern Illinois at Central Michigan(-4.5):MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
What a game this was. I'll watch Lew Nichols III vs. Jay Ducker any time. Those two put on quite a show. Considering the amount of MAC running backs in the NFL, you guys may want to watch as well.
Syracuse at Virginia Tech(-3.5):MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I laud the Hokies defense for only giving up 100 points on the season and they respond by allowing 41 to Syracuse. Garrett Shrader is a good quarterback. He just wasn't good for Mike Leach's system.
Kent State(-5.5) at Ohio: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
True to recent Kent form, they didn't play well on defense in the second half. Thankfully, the offense mostly kept pace this time.
Texas State at Georgia State(-10.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
The Fun Belt is sloppy at times, but it's still fun. Georgia State's offense is a problem for teams that like to move faster than a tortoise.
Wisconsin(-3.5) at (25)Purdue: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
When you have two quarterbacks (or three), you really have none. However, when you have two (or three) running backs, you have a defense on the other side that is beaten into submission. Advantage: Wisconsin. The emergence of Braelon Allen alongside Chez Mellusi is going to be a problem for everyone left on the Wisconsin schedule.
(8)Oklahoma State at Iowa State(-7.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
This was a great job by the Iowa State defense, particularly in the second half. Brock Purdy had one of his better games and the Cyclones' spoiler tour gets started in the right foot. I still never doubted that I would win this bet. More than a touchdown was absurd. Most places didn't close that high.
(10)Oregon at UCLA(-1.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
UCLA gave a strong effort, but Oregon controlled the middle of this game. UCLA was never able to recover. The Ducks are finally getting to see how good Travis Dye can be when they feed him. They never would have done this with C.J. Verdell still in the fold.
LSU at (12)Mississippi(-9.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
The Ole Miss defense did a good job on the LSU running game. This was not the LSU we have seen the last two weeks. The Ole Miss defense (and crowd) had something to do with that, but you can't help but think that having a lame-duck coach is an issue.
Clemson at (23)Pittsburgh(-3.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Clemson's defense is still very good. That just goes to show why Kenny Pickett is flying up draft boards. The strides he has made in the last two years are going to make him a lot of money. Those Pitt receivers don't hurt any, either. Pickett now has the most completions in Pitt history. Big deal? Well, yeah, it kind of is considering some guy named Dan Marino went there.
Rice at UAB(-23.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Every year I have a team or two that are my nemesis. This year it's UAB and Nebraska. I will rewatch this game in another week or so because it still didn't look like Rice played well enough to win. Moving to Wiley Green at quarterback looks to be a good move for the Owls.
Maryland at Minnesota(-4.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
How many freaking running backs do the Gophers have? Bryce Williams was outrushed by Ky Thomas in this one. Part of it is the improved play of Tanner Morgan. Another part is the offensive line play. It kind of makes you wonder how many more running back cyborgs they have hidden under the stadium.
Miami(OH) at Ball State(-5.5):MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Somehow, some way, the Redhawks keep finding ways in the MAC. Jack Sorenson is one of the best receivers in a conference full of really good ones.
Western Michigan(-1.5) at Toledo: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Toledo had no answer for Skyy Moore, but the escapability of Dequan Finn was on display in this one. Finn only completed a third of his 24 passes, but two of those went for touchdowns and he didn't make any mistakes.
Buffalo(-11.5) at Akron:MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
Well, I see Akron is back doing Akron things. Like losing by 35, for instance.....
Colorado at California(-8.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Brenden Rice's talents are being wasted on this Colorado team. They can't throw to save their souls. Well, unless it's against Arizona....
BYU(-4.5) at Washington State: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
It wasn't an outright win for Washington State, but the way they played in this game should tell the university that they may not have to go outside of the current staff to hire the next head coach.
New Mexico at Wyoming(-20.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
Both teams didn't even score what Wyoming was favored by combined. Isaiah Chavez did everything for New Mexico. He only had one incompletion in 11 pass attempts and led the team in rushing.
Mississippi State(-20.5) at Vanderbilt: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Easy money. I should have went higher on this. Will Rogers has proven to be the perfect quarterback for this system.
Liberty(-21.5) at North Texas: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
Liberty is firmly on my no-fly list. The defense has fallen apart.
Boston College at Louisville(-5.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Malik Cunningham handled the Eagles on the ground so he didn't need to through the air. Cunningham ran for 133 yards and three touchdowns. Yes, he outscored the Eagles by himself. We really shouldn't be surprised.
East Carolina at Houston(-13.5):MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
A five hour weather delay apparently wasn't enough. The two teams still needed overtime for Houston to escape with a win. At some point ECU will turn some of these moral victories into actual ones.
Tennessee at (4)Alabama(-25.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Really, Tennessee? Really? They pulled back within a touchdown with ten minutes left then proceeded to just......give up. The last ten minutes of the game made this look like a blowout and really belies how well the Vols played for the first 50.
(22)San Diego State at Air Force(-2.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
The Air Force defense wasn't the problem. Losing Haaziq Daniels was.
(24)UTSA(-6.5) at Louisiana Tech: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
If you're not a UTSA convert yet, what's taking you so long! The Roadrunners are everything that is fun about college football.
Western Kentucky(-14.5) at Florida International: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
I needed that half to go my way since the big bets are looking average again this week. Bailey Zappe only threw for 382. He's falling off the pace a bit....
Temple at South Florida(-2.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
It's going to be fun to watch Jimmy McClain develop over the next couple of years. He has had his moments as a freshman, but he is clearly something to feel good about for the future as the Bulls suffer through this season.
South Alabama(-13.5) at Louisiana-Monroe: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
So.....what got into the Warhawks? They now have a winning record! This is a team that almost lost to Jacksonville State and lost by 53 to Coastal Carolina. They have now beaten a solid Liberty team and a good South Alabama offense in back-to-back weeks. This stretch could have broken them. Now they might actually have a chance against Appalachian State.
Nevada at Fresno State(-3.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Carson Strong threw for 476 yards and four touchdowns and it still wasn't enough! It was enough to win the bet though. That's all that matters when you don't have a horse in the race. Speaking of horses, Romeo Doubs caught a staggering 19 passes in this one! 19!
(5)Ohio State(-21.5) at Indiana: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I should have went higher on this. Indiana had no chance.
USC at (13)Notre Dame(-6.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Drake London had another 15 receptions for 171 yards and the Trojans still lost by 15 points. Whatever is wrong with the Trojans, it has nothing to do with London.
South Carolina at (17)Texas A&M(-19.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I'm old enough to remember when South Carolina had a solid defense.....
(18)North Carolina State(-3.5) at Miami(FL): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
The Wolfpack did things they haven't been doing this year, like turning the ball over and committing stupid penalties. That's Miami's job! Tyler Van Dyke looked the part in this one. He threw for 325 yards and four touchdowns. Miami has pretty good receivers. We'll finally get to see it with a passer like Van Dyke slinging it around.
Georgia Tech at Virginia(-6.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Virginia did everything humanly possible to lose this game. They gave up two onside kick recoveries to the Wreck in the last 41 seconds of this game.
West Virginia at TCU(-4.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Ugly game? Check. Under 57? Check. West Virginia winning outright? Check. One of the few spots that I got completely right.
Utah(-3.5) at Oregon State: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
What a game by Oregon State. This is a well-coached team that just keeps finding ways to beat teams Vegas says they shouldn't.
New Mexico State at Hawaii(-17.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Dae Dae Hunter was out. No problem. Dedrick Parson ran for 161 and three touchdowns. The New Mexico State offense has looked pretty good in the last month or so. They're getting harder to bet against.
College Football Betting Season Results:
I am somewhat disappointed in my 27-26 record this week, but nine of those 26 misses were on the one-point games. That's where I should be missing. I am getting closer to even now at 208-213 on the season. This is the good time of year to start making up some ground. Considering so many of the misses were on the low bets, I feel good about my points progress. Let's see how it played out.
Now it's time to tally up the points. The weekly totals follow the bet. Season totals are in parentheses.
1. 3-9 (32-45) = -13
2. 10-8 (79-86) = -14
3. 12-5 (71-44) = 81
4. 1-3 (15-25) = -40
5. 1-1 (11-13) = -10
I ended up gaining a solid 11 points on the week. I'll take it after three consecutive losing weeks in September. I am now back in the black on the season with four points. I am up 32 points total over four and a half seasons. We have another smaller week with 53 games this weekend. I have 49 more picks to make for Saturday, so stay tuned!
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