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The NCAA Tournament is officially underway in Dayton. Those are mostly uninteresting betting picks, but the second set of the first-round NIT games provides some very interesting lines. We had a rough night last night with Rutgers blowing it, Bradley getting blown out, and SEMO slowing that game down to a crawl with the foul-o-rama they had going on in Dayton. UAB was the only team that covered as I went 1-4. Yikes.
There will be some great games and some big upsets, and we can add to all the fun with some betting picks. With the amount of data out there, it can sometimes be a bit overwhelming, so I will simplify this by using either over/under bets, spread, or moneyline. I won't have any prop bets here.
Here are my favorite college basketball betting picks for the first round of the NIT and the First Four of the NCAA Tournament for Wednesday, March 15, 2023. Once you're done here, be sure to also check out the rest of our NCAA Tournament articles and analysis including previews, predictions, sleepers, busts, and guides on how to fill out your brackets. You can access all of our latest sports betting promos, and sign up for Caesars Sportsbook here.
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Fairleigh Dickinson vs. Texas Southern
Fairleigh Dickinson moneyline (+120)
The Tigers opened the season losing eight of their first nine games with the only win being against Arizona State in that span. They proceeded to stumble through the SWAC, losing their last three games before the conference tournament. The Tigers own tournament time and they have some NCAA Tournament experience.
FDU is here because of the dumbest rule in an organization full of dumb rules – the probationary period that institutes a four-year ban for teams moving up from Division II. It's dumb. It robbed James Madison of postseason play in football and it did the same to Merrimack in basketball.
So how do you decide between two teams that kind of backdoored their way in? You take the team that won 20 instead of the one that lost 20.
Central Florida at Florida
UCF moneyline (+130)
Taylor Hendricks will be a lottery pick if he comes out after this season. Even Colin Castleton might not be a lottery pick and Hendricks won't even have to deal with Castleton. Florida has struggled defensively since Castleton went down, allowing 77.8 points per game in the 10 games since his injury.
UCF only allows 66 per game. Florida can still score fairly well thanks to Riley Kugel, but they don't have a presence in the middle that can deal with Hendricks. I'll take the team with the best player on the court in a road game...especially since the hordes of UCF fans will flock up I-75 to Gainesville.
Arizona State vs. Nevada
Nevada +2.5
I don't mind the moneyline here either, but I'll leave it at the spread for the parlay. Much like the 11 seeds last night, this is going to be a very close game. The Pack have a better NET ranking. Arizona State is likely only in this spot because of a half-court prayer to beat Arizona in the last week of the season. Lunardi said they were the last team in. If that's the case, Nevada should win, right?
Oklahoma State at Youngstown State
Oklahoma State -5.5
Arena conflicts in Stillwater put the Pokes on the road despite being a one-seed in the NIT. We've seen the spread dip because of that, but they are a strong defensive team, which Youngstown didn't have to deal with this year. I also like the u148.5 if you would rather bet that. We will see if the Big 12(10) is as strong as they looked beating the hell out of each other all year.
UC-Irvine at Oregon
UC Irvine +7.5
The Ducks will be without Will Richardson and Jermaine Couisnard and might be without N'Faly Dante as well. That's a lot of production that the Ducks have to pick up on the fly. On top of that, the Highlanders already beat Oregon in Eugene back in November. I don't know that Irvine wins outright again since Oregon does have good backup guards, but covering by a touchdown while missing over 60% of your offensive production is a tough ask.
Favorite Parlay
FDU ML, UCF ML, Oklahoma State -5.5, Nevada +2.5, UC Irvine +7.5 (+3421)
As you'll notice, I sometimes get a little crazy on parlays. I will bet a few smaller parlays, but I'll always post my big one for those trying to make 50 bucks off a quarter. Please, don't bet more than a couple of dollars on these. These are meant to be a fun longshot, not something to help you retire. Save the higher bets for singles or three-leg parlays.
My three-legger is going to be UC-Irvine -7.5, Oklahoma State -5.5, and Central Florida ML.
Thanks for reading, and remember to gamble responsibly.
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