Grass Isn't Always Greener: Free Agent Moves That Will Decrease Value

June 9, 2020

Justin Carter looks at NFL free agents with new homes in 2020 that could become fantasy football fallers and overvalued draft targets.

Free agency is a couple of months in the rear-view window now, though it feels like it's been years since it happened with how slow time seems to be moving these days. But so that the slow-moving train that is linear time hasn't wiped your memories of NFL free agency totally away, let's revisit some things.

No player is ever the same in a new place as he was in his old place. Situations change and thus production changes. Sometimes for the better, and sometimes...well, let's just say that NFL free agency doesn't have a 100 percent success rate.

Let's look at five players whose free agency moves aren't going to lead to greener pastures.

Philip Rivers (QB, Indianapolis Colts)

Is Philip Rivers an upgrade over Jacoby Brissett? The production Rivers has shown across his career would suggest yes, as would the raw numbers from Rivers, who was fourth in passing yards last year while Brissett was 27th. While Rivers is a sitting duck in the pocket, the Colts' O-line ranked seventh in adjusted sack rate last year per Football Outsiders. He should wind up putting up better numbers than Brissett did. But there are a couple of issues.

First, Rivers' efficiency metrics last year were troubling. He was 28th in red zone completion percentage and 27th in deep-ball completion percentage. The latter number concerns me the most because the Colts signed Rivers in large part because of his ability to air the ball out. He ranked fifth in the league in air yards last season, for instance, but how much will that tendency in Rivers' game matter if he continues to see his ability to complete those plays reduced?

Factor in too that Rivers offers zero production on the ground. I mean...

Rivers should outperform what Brissett did from a fantasy perspective, even if last year Rivers only averaged 0.3 more fantasy points per game than Brissett and fewer fantasy points per dropback. But can Rivers outperform what he himself did last year? Will this Colts offense be more run-heavy than the Chargers, since Indianapolis drafted Jonathan Taylor and still has Marlon Mack? Can Rivers sustain his style of play as he continues to age? I have a lot of questions here, and I think expecting Rivers to use Indianapolis as a place where he bounces back is wishful thinking from a fantasy perspective.

Carlos Hyde (RB, Seattle Seahawks)

Last year, Carlos Hyde recorded the first 1000 yard season of his NFL career, finishing with 1070 yards and six touchdowns for the Houston Texans. He did so thanks to 245 carries, the 12th-most among running backs.

Hyde's fantasy relevance at this point feels much less about talent and much more about opportunity, and by moving to a Seahawks team that already has Chris Carson, Hyde is lowering his available opportunities. Rashaad Penny is reportedly likely to open the year on the PUP list, which would lead to him missing at least the first six weeks of the season. Hyde's an insurance policy in Seattle.

His lack of versatility also hurts. He had just 42 receiving yards last year, so he won't be carving out a role on passing downs, leaving two potential paths things can go. The first: Chris Carson stays healthy, gets a huge snap share, and Hyde rotates in on occasion to handle some early-down work when Carson needs a breather. The second is that something happens to Carson, leaving Hyde as the lead back.

Which basically means that Hyde's a handcuff for Carson owners and not a particularly exciting one. He's going to see a precipitous drop in his productivity with the Seahawks.

Nelson Agholor (WR, Las Vegas Raiders)

Injuries up and down the lineup in Philly gave Agholor a chance last year to show in his fifth season that he could be a productive NFL wide receiver, and instead he had a drop rate of 5.8 percent and posted his worst catch rate since 2016. Agholor became the butt of many, many jokes in Philadelphia after his drop issue became a costly thing for the Eagles:

Of course, the drops aren't the only story when it comes to Nelson Agholor. What else is important to look at are his efficiency numbers, especially when it comes to per play yardage, as Agholor's speed should allow him to do better than this:

Those are not good numbers, especially when you factor in that he was 18th among receivers in target accuracy; his quarterbacks were putting the ball in spots where he should have succeeded, but instead Agholor just did nothing. Now, he's in Vegas.

Tyrell Williams, Hunter Renfrow, and rookie Henry Ruggs III seem like locks to be the Raiders' receivers in 11 personnel sets. That likely leaves Agholor fighting with Zay Jones for snaps as the fourth receiver, though third-round pick Bryan Edwards is in the mix too. It's a messy situation to be part of, and Agholor's chances of finding success in his new digs feel unlikely.

Geronimo Allison (WR, Detroit Lions)

I, uhh, definitely knew before I started this article that Allison had signed with the Lions.

Allison's been decently productive at times in Green Bay, including 2018, when he played in just five games but averaged 60.6 receiving yards per game in those appearances. But last year, he played a full 16 games, catching just 34 passes for 287 yards and a pair of touchdowns. While he finished third among the team's wide receivers in targets, Allen Lazard's late season play made Allison expendable.

So, can a fresh start change some things for him? Maybe not when that fresh start is in Detroit.

Kenny Golladay and Marvin Jones Jr. have the outside spots locked down while Danny Amendola will man the slot. That leaves Allison fighting for Matthew Stafford's table scraps. At best, a move to Detroit feels like a lateral move for Allison, who would have been fourth on the depth chart in Green Bay also. At worst, it's a move from a team where they may have still been some fluidity on the depth chart behind Davante Adams to a team where nothing feels fluid. The downside for Allison is the same, but the ceiling's dropped down some too.

Eric Ebron (TE, Pittsburgh Steelers)

In 2014, the Detroit Lions drafted Eric Ebron with the 10th overall pick. In 2018 -- as a member of the Indianapolis Colts -- he finally posted a finish as a fantasy TE1.

Ebron's career has been largely disappointing, and now he's heading off for the fantasy wasteland that is the tight end room with the Steelers. Since Heath Miller left, the Steelers have had just one year that featured a top-12 season from the position.

His one good NFL season was also aided by an unusually high and unsustainable touchdown rate. 19.7 percent of his catches that year went for touchdowns; in 2019, that number dropped to 9.7 percent, something much more in line with what one might expect to see from an NFL tight end.

Ebron relies on his athletic profile for a lot of his production, using his speed to separate from defenders and make plays down the field. That's great when it works, but recent NFL history is littered with tight ends who weren't able to live up to their potential because they never became more than a collection of athletic traits.

Vance McDonald is still going to be the primary tight end here because of his blocking ability, leaving Ebron playing a reduced role than he might have played elsewhere. He'll have a few strong games, but consistency is going to be nearly impossible with Ebron playing the role he'll be playing.

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