Free Agency Losers - Running Back Fallers

March 24, 2020

Phil Clark's biggest running back losers and fantasy football fallers from 2020 NFL free agency. These RBs could be busts and overvalued draft avoids.

The doldrums of the offseason have been erased by a surge of news and events that transcend sports. The state of affairs around the globe has altered our usual sports-viewing habits. But as we adapt to an evolving daily existence with severely reduced sports activity, NFL free agency has been a welcome reprieve.

Free agency has also played an integral role in reshaping the fantasy landscape, as a sizable number of players have experienced changes in destinations and expectations. This has created opportunities for some players to thrive in their new environments, while increased competition for touches will cause other players' stock to take a hit. More roster movement is looming in the weeks ahead, which will affect the decision-making of fantasy owners.

The team at RotoBaller is providing articles, rankings, and other resources that will help you plan your upcoming drafts, and manage your dynasty rosters. That includes our Free Agency Winners and Losers series that examines which players are due for a rise or decline in production. This time around we're looking at the biggest losers at the running back position.

Todd Gurley, Atlanta Falcons

Gurley’s situation with the Rams was increasingly tenuous, as his contract was laden with $45 million in guarantees. That was partially responsible for the uncomfortable cap situation the Rams found themselves in, while concerns about his overall health only exacerbated the situation. Those elements provided the incentive for L.A. to trade their former first-round selection.

Gurley exploded for 566 yards and averaged 6.6 yards per game during a four-game sequence in 2015, which instantly established him as an elite presence. He also led all backs in points per game during both 2017 and 2018, while continuing to assemble a vast collection of outstanding numbers. But Gurley dropped to 14th last season while leading the Rams with 857 rushing yards on 223 attempts (57.1 yards per game/3.8 yards per attempt). He had averaged 88 yards per game and 4.8 yards-per-carry in 2017-2018 while generating a combined 2,556 yards in the ground. Gurley’s output as a receiver also declined (49 targets/31 receptions/207 yards), after he had averaged 84 targets/61.5 receptions and 684 yards during 2017-2018.

Gurley now joins an Atlanta offense that was in need of a talent infusion even before the release of Devonta Freeman. The Falcons were one of just three teams that averaged under 86 yards per game in the ground (85.1) while ranking 30th in rushing offense during 2019. The now-departed Freeman led the team with just 656 yards, which placed him 29th overall. When he missed the Falcons’ matchups in Week 11-12, Brian Hill was unimpressive while attempting to operate as Atlanta’s lead back (24 carries/44yards/1.8 yards-per-carry). The Falcons may blend another runner into the equation, but that will not keep Gurley from remaining involved on a weekly basis – providing that he evades significant health issues. But the enormous production and extensive workloads from Gurley's earlier seasons looks to be a thing of the past.

Melvin Gordon, Denver Broncos 

Gordon’s five-year tenure with the Los Angeles Chargers has concluded after he agreed to a two-year deal with Denver. His streak of three consecutive seasons finishing as an RB7 or higher was halted due to his self-inflicted shortened 2019 season. From 2016-2018, Gordon had accumulated nearly 3,000 yards (2,987) and 28 touchdowns on the ground, along with 1,385 yards as a receiver.

Gordon overcame an underwhelming start in 2019 to put up 356 rushing yards from Weeks 9-13 (89 per game). However, he also had six games in which he failed to surpass 32 yards on the ground. That blended for an overall average of 51 rushing yards per game, which placed him just 27th among all backs. Gordon also averaged 13.5 attempts per game, his lowest since 2015.

He will not be contending with the elusive Ekeler for opportunities in his new environment. However, he must now share touches with Phillip Lindsay, with Royce Freeman lurking as a theoretical threat to siphon touches. It will be difficult for Gordon to exceed his 2019 weekly usage within the structure of Denver’s congested backfield.

The Broncos ranked 20th in rushing last season while averaging 103.9 yards per game. This represented a decline of nearly 16 yards per game compared to 2019 (119.2). Even if Gordon leads the Broncos in attempts and rushing yards, Gordon’s transition within the AFC West does not equate to a favorable development for his value.

Phillip Lindsay/Royce Freeman, Denver Broncos

Staying in the Broncos backfield, Lindsay and Freeman combined for 434 touches in 2019, with both attaining a 50% snap count percentage. Freeman is easily the biggest loser in the aftermath of Gordon’s $16 million contract, as he performed less efficiently than Lindsay during the past two seasons, but Lindsay’s value has also been affected.

Denver invested a third-round draft selection on Freeman in 2018, while Lindsay was an undrafted free agent. Lindsay ultimately outperformed Freeman by a considerable margin, while finishing ninth overall in rushing yards (1,037), and seventh in rushing touchdowns (9). Lindsay also finished third among rookie backs with 241 receiving yards, numbers which helped propel Lindsay to RB11 in scoring.

Freeman was relegated to a secondary role with the Broncos during his rookie season, as he finished just 36^th in rushing yards (521) and was a non-factor as a receiving weapon (14 receptions/72 yards). Freeman was unable to improve upon the numbers in his second year, as he experienced a decline in yardage (521/496), yards-per-carry (4.0/3.8) and touchdowns (5/3). Freeman was also surpassed by Lindsay in red zone rushing percentage (46.9/40.6). However, Lindsay also experienced a decline in multiple categories during 2019, including rushing yards (1,011), rushing touchdowns (7), and receiving yards (196).

The arrival of Gordon is problematic for Lindsay, but it represents a more sizable setback for Freeman’s chances of restoring his plummeting value. Lindsay will continue to function in a committee, even though he will no longer be the primary component in Denver’s revamped stable of options.

Raheem Mostert, San Francisco 49ers

Mostert’s value was impacted by the 49ers retaining their entire stable of running backs. The concept of blending Mostert, Tevin Coleman, Matt Breida, and (possibly) Jerick McKinnon into an expansive committee might create schematic advantages for Shanahan, and it certainly poses challenges for defensive coordinators during their matchups with the 49ers, but it also produces a quagmire of uncertainty for fantasy owners.

San Francisco placed a second-round tender on Breida and restructured McKinnon’s contract. Coleman, meanwhile, heads into the second (and last) year of his contract with the team. That cluster places restraints on Mostert’s fantasy value. Mostert led San Francisco with 772 rushing yards last season while averaging 5.6 yards-per-carry. He also averaged 75.8 yards per game from Weeks 13-17, then shredding the Packers for 220 yards during the NFC Championship Game. In many situations, a runner that performed with that kind of proficiency would have earned the lead back role going forward. But that's unfortunately not the case here.

Mostert’s current ADP of 62 places him early in Round 6 of drafts, while Breida’s ADP of 169 leaves him available until the onset of Round 15. Breida paced the 49ers with 814 rushing yards in 2018, and his value would also rise if his big-play potential were deployed within a consistent workload. Coleman is being selected during Round 10 after his disappointing 2019 season consisted of 544 rushing yards - 105 of which were accrued in Week 8. He also registered 3.97 yards-per-carry, which failed to match the averages that were attained by Mostert and Breida. Mostert can still emerge as a high-end RB2 if the backfield becomes uncluttered in upcoming weeks.

Devonta Freeman, Unsigned Free Agent

The loser column has been surprisingly light at the running back position to this point of the free agency process, though that is destined to change as more rosters are transformed. Freeman currently remains unsigned, and it appears he will be relegated to a diminished workload regardless of where he signs. The two-time Pro-Bowler became a starter in 2015 and proceeded to accrue 3,175 total yards in 2015-2016. That includes 2,135 that he accumulated on the ground. He also led all running backs in scoring during 2015, but his health and production have both degenerated considerably since that time.

Freeman has missed 18 games, contended with a massive assortment of injuries, and lost his lofty standing within the fantasy landscape. Freeman was limited to just 91 total yards on 19 touches during 2018, after missing a massive 14 games with a combination of health issues (foot/groin/knee). He did lead Atlanta in rushing yards during 2019 (656) but averaged just 3.6 yards per game.

It was hardly shocking when the Falcons opted to release the 28-year old Freeman, even with the team’s willingness to absorb the impact of $6 million in dead money so that they could execute the move. However, the transaction created enormous uncertainty surrounding his destination and level of opportunity in 2020. While Freeman’s running style resulted in high-quality production during that aforementioned two-year span, it also subjected his body to significant wear and tear. He will eventually resurface with a new team. However, it is highly unlikely that he can reclaim the role of an unquestioned RB1.

More Fantasy Football Analysis