October 18, 2016

Jake Finnen looks at three overvalued NBA forwards to avoid as potential draft busts in 2016-17 fantasy basketball leagues. Think twice before drafting them.

Much like the rest of my avoid/busts articles, these are players that lack one or both of the main factors you need from a solid fantasy option, production and consistency. If you have both, good chances your team will do well.

Just because these players may not be as consistent as you would have hoped, DFS relies heavily on finding the right matchups. So by all means, do not feel obligated to avoid these players in DFS and daily games. Just don't waste a draft pick on these guys in seasonal leagues. Let's get rolling.

Editor's Note: RotoBaller has the best Premium NBA Subscription, only $29.99 for the full season. We have all the preseason tools to help win your drafts, and in-season tools to win your seasonal and daily leagues: Draft Kit, Premium Rankings, Sleepers List, Late-Round Fliers, Early-Round Avoids, DFS Cheat Sheets, Lineup Picks, Expert Lineups, Stacks and Avoids.

Forwards to Leave Alone on Draft Day

Jared Dudley, SG/SF, Washington Wizards

This one shouldn't come as shock but if I had to describe Dudley fantasy relevance in one sentence: he's a veteran that is used more for his experience than his skill. He makes smart decisions with or without the ball, plays great defense but unfortunately, he won't score enough to make it worthwhile.

He has seen an increase in minutes the past three years and the Suns seem to have committed to him as starting power forward in the short term as he helps mentor the team's young, talented lottery picks, Dragan Bender and Marquese Chriss.

Owners are flirting with him late in drafts, thinking someone is going to have to get minutes and production in the Suns front court. But until one of his production categories climbs toward double digit range, I wouldn't bother picking up Dudley. His floor is pedestrian and his ceiling is low.

Andre Roberson, SG/SF, Oklahoma City Thunder

Honestly, I'm glad that everyone is buying high on this Thunder roster. The amount of times I've heard Roberson is the next up and comer is downright scary. Proves Mississippi is clearly a football state. Roberson was not productive in the playoffs. That doesn't help his confidence any.

Now that KD is gone, Andre just unwillingly moved up in the list of players to guard on Oklahoma City’s roster. Roberson is a good rebounder for his position and can provide steals.  However, Steven Adams and Enes Kanter dominating touches down low, and Russell Westbrook and Victor Oladipo will dominating touches in the backcourt. Roberson will still have to pick up the scraps, but without Kevin Durant there to help leave him quite as wide open as he always was last season.

Fantasy doesn't like bottom feeders. We want the best of the best, and when that's not possible, we settle for the best of the rest. Roberson will not be in that category by the midpoint of the season. There is simply too many mouths ready to feed in Oklahoma City that Andre is not in a position to significantly break out into fantasy relevance.

P.J. Tucker, SG/SF, Phoenix Suns

The tough thing about trying to predict how players will play is trying to predict how their teams will fare throughout the season. In this situation P.J. is 30, and the Suns are among the youngest teams in the association. Thicker may take on a nice role as a defensive anchor but that's not what you want to see when looking for fantasy prospects.

While Tucker has seen an increase in minutes and assists since last year, his points and shooting percentages have taken a dip since his entrance into the league. Tucker is similar to Dudley to the point where daily plays are a possibility, but he doesn't have the consistency worth a consideration on draft day.

Couple his historical production with an injury that's caused him to miss the preseason, the continued improvement of fellow wing T.J. Warren, and the chance of a trade deadline deal sending him to a contender as a role player, and that spells all downside for Tucker.  Selecting him late in drafts is just a waste of a pick.