Florio's Fantasy Baseball Bullpen Report: Trades Are Coming!

July 24, 2024

Michael reviews fantasy baseball closers to add off the waiver wire for saves in Week 18 (2024), changing bullpens, and relief pitcher risers with elite ratios.

The All-Star break is behind us and we are officially in the second half of the MLB season! The playoff push formally has started not just for MLB teams, but for all fantasy managers as well. If you play in a head-to-head league, you have only a few weeks left to get your team into the playoffs. 

The race in roto leagues is surely tightening up as well. And with the trade deadline approaching both in real-life baseball and in many fantasy leagues, it is time to be realistic with yourself. If you are in a position where you can gain valuable points by picking up some saves, this is the time for you to strike. 

Not only will things get wild in the next week, but it’ll be your last chance to find this many saves on the waiver wire. And if all else fails, try to find the teams sitting at the top of the standings in saves, and try to swing a trade. Once MLB trades are done, it will be much easier to do so as we will know how bullpens settle for the final stretch run. 

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Changing Bullpens for Fantasy Baseball

Daniel Hudson has picked up three saves for the Dodgers in the last week. That is especially impressive considering it really is just in four days. He has not allowed a run in July yet. Regardless of his role, Hudson has been lights out this season. He now is up to seven saves and needs to be viewed as the top option out of this bullpen. Until we see otherwise, he is a must-start fantasy option. Evan Phillips has struggled, especially as of late. He has a 27 ERA in the last week and the Dodgers have chosen to use him in the middle innings as he works through his struggles. He is worth holding onto in deeper leagues. Alex Vesia, who provides elite strikeouts and ratios, is a deeper option here as he is next in line behind Hudson and can be used when he needs a day off. 

Evan Phillips would've been unavailable today anyway due to usage, but it's Daniel Hudson getting the ninth inning tonight. https://t.co/wvWzPUCggw

— Fabian Ardaya (@FabianArdaya) July 23, 2024

The Red Sox will be without Kenley Jansen in their series in Coors Field. That stinks for those managers with Jansen, as it is three opportunities for a save that he will not be able to partake in. But with the Red Sox struggling as of late, they are in an interesting position. They're not quite in the playoffs, but not out of the race. Will they opt to be buyers or sellers? They could do something in between, but one option for them is to sell their closer before he is set to hit the open market this offseason. This series could be a helpful peek behind the curtain of how the Sox would manage their bullpen without Jansen. Zack Kelly is a stash candidate in deeper leagues, as he would likely get the first crack at closing. 

I have been writing about Devin Williams’ return to the Brewers for a few weeks now. He is closer than ever to returning. He has been dominant in his rehab assignment and is now moving up to Triple-A. If he continues to dominate, he will quickly be back in the Brewers bullpen and likely pitching in late innings. We have to monitor how they use Williams initially, and what it means for stud closer Trevor Megill. This is a good real-life problem for the Brewers, but it is one fantasy managers will have to keep a very close eye on. Check your waiver wire just in case, as Williams is still available in about a quarter of fantasy leagues. 

Scoreless inning with a strikeout for Devin Williams at Class AAA Nashville. Fastball touched 96, sat 94 mph. pic.twitter.com/JpNsIuoYDl

— Curt Hogg (@CyrtHogg) July 21, 2024

The Nationals got in on the reliever trades a little early by sending Hunter Harvey to the Kansas City Royals. The Nats are not totally out of the Wild Card race, but there is all but two teams in the NL ahead of them. I believe they will be sellers, and if so, closer Kyle Finnegan is a huge trade chip for them. Where he ends up would greatly determine his fantasy value, but that would open up a gig for a new closer in these final two months. For those trying to get out in front of a trade here, Robert Garcia and Derek Law figure to be the next two in line. Garcia has the better swing-and-miss stuff, but Law has more late-inning experience and is the only non-Finnegan pitcher with a save this season for the Nats. I have a slight lean his way. 

Speculative Saves for Fantasy Baseball 

Clay Holmes has done a fine job for the Yankees. But in the last month, he has converted two saves, while blowing two others. (One was not his fault at all -- his defense did him absolutely no favors.) In that span, Holmes has pitched to a 3.86 ERA and 1.24 WHIP. The Yankees' other relievers have not been as reliable. I fully expect the Yanks to be in the market to acquire bullpen arms. The only question is whether will they acquire a new closer or not. Given the uncertainty, all you can do is ride it out with Holmes and hope he survives the next week unscathed. 

It has been an up-and-down year for Alexis Diaz and the entire Reds bullpen. Diaz has allowed a ton of baserunners as of late, sporting a 1.63 WHIP in the last 30 days. Despite that, his ERA in that period is just 2.25, but all the indicators are above five. The Reds are just far enough out of the Wild Card race where they could be sellers. Given the uncertainty with the team and how inconsistent Diaz has been, it is not a bad idea to shop him now to a save-needy team. He will lose all fantasy value if he loses his gig -- whether that is via trade or poor performance. 

The Angels are surely to be sellers at the deadline. Carlos Estevez has been lights out as the Angels closer. He seems like a lock to be traded in the next week and his fantasy value will be tied solely to if he is closing games on his new team. I think there is a better chance that he will not be, so if you can find a save-needy team in your league, trying to shop Estevez is not a bad idea. Next in line would be Luis Garcia and Matt Moore, but both are veterans who could also be dealt themselves. It is not a bad idea to stash one just in case (I prefer Garcia of the two), but be ready to drop them if they themselves are also traded. 

The Rangers are trying to make a push, but they are running out of time and still find themselves four games under .500 and five teams back in the Wild Card race. That seems like a team that will make tough decisions and opt to sell. I think we see them trade off expiring contracts and look to retool and make a run next year. Two expiring contracts, though, are Kirby Yates and David Robertson (the latter does have a mutual 2025 option). The Rangers should be able to get back a haul for the duo. Both have been so effective this season and have closer experience, so either could close out games on a new team. I would not give up on either until we see they are traded and no longer closing games. If only one is dealt, that would leave the other as the closer. So it is not a bad idea to stash Robertson if he is out there. If both are dealt, Jose Leclerc would likely be the last man standing. He is a stash option as well right now. Worst case scenario, you throw him back out there in a week after the deadline. 

.@Ken_Rosenthal details teams that could be sellers at the deadline, including the @Tigers, @Rangers, @Cubs and @BlueJays pic.twitter.com/xqEh5LgNWi

— Foul Territory (@FoulTerritoryTV) July 5, 2024

Elite Strikeouts and Ratios for Fantasy Baseball

The Marlins are a lock to be sellers at the deadline. Closer Tanner Scott, who has been electric, seems like a strong trade candidate. If he is traded, A.J. Puk would likely be next in line for saves for the Marlins. Puk is one of two pitchers not named Scott to record a save for the Marlins this season. He also picked up 15 just last year. It is worth adding him to the end of your bench now because his price will shoot up if he is officially the Marlins closer a week from now. Calvin Faucher is a deeper name to monitor here in case Puk is also traded. 

The Rays have hung around .500 all year and are likely to be sellers at the deadline. Closer Pete Fairbanks could bring back a nice haul for the Rays, who are not the type of team to hold onto an aging closer. If he is dealt, that would likely lead Jason Adam as the lead of a committee. Anytime Fairbanks has missed time the last two years, Adam has been the top option, typically in a two-person committee. Garrett Cleavinger and Colin Poche are deeper options in this bullpen. 

Chad Green has been holding down the Blue Jays bullpen with Jordan Romano and Yimi Garcia sidelined, but the latter has officially returned. While we have not seen Garcia close out a game since returning (it has been one game), we have seen him do so earlier in the season. In fact, when Romano first missed time, it was Green and Garcia sharing save chances. Garcia has been electric this season and should see some save chances if he is not traded. But at 33 and on a team that has been disappointing all year long, the Jays could shop Garcia to a reliever-needy team. Perhaps one where he could get save chances. At the very least, he will provide elite ratios and strikeouts. 

Jose Butto has become a trusted piece of the Mets bullpen. Since joining the 'pen in early July, he has pitched to a 0.84 ERA and 0.75 WHIP with a 35 percent strikeout rate. Even better than that is he routinely goes more than one inning. In fact, only one of his outings has been just an inning. He routinely goes two-plus, meaning he can give you starter-type innings in a week, just with elite strikeouts and ratios. He joins Dedniel Nunez as a pitcher you can roster from the Mets for elite strikeouts and ratios. Both also appear to be next in line for save chances, at least pending trades.

The Jose Butto experiment may not be an experiment for much longer. The right-handed swingman is quickly becoming invaluable to the Mets‘ bullpen. @AbbeyMastracco https://t.co/RsRwBJ46iD

— New York Daily News (@NYDailyNews) July 23, 2024

Make sure to follow Michael on X, @MichaelFFlorio. 

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