Florio's Fantasy Baseball Bullpen Report: Trades Are Coming, Closers Will Change

Happy early Fourth of July to everyone reading this! Hopefully, you get to celebrate however you like, with whoever you want. A day off from work typically filled with eating plenty of hot dogs, drinking your favorite beverage of choice, some fireworks, and of course some baseball is never a bad day!

It is also a huge reminder that we are about halfway through the fantasy baseball season. It feels like we are so much deeper into the season than we are, but we still have another three months of this. Fantasy baseball is a sprint, not a marathon! 

But it is a reminder to do two things this week. The first is to take a hard look at your team and figure out what categories you need and can still realistically make up ground in. The second is to realize we are only halfway done here and if you are behind in saves, there is still time to make a run! Especially with trades nearing and about to shake up the position in a major way! 

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Changing Bullpens for Fantasy Baseball

The Mets have been frequently featured in this column as of late. With Edwin Diaz still serving his 10-game suspension due to sticky stuff, the Mets pen has been depleted. In the last week, Reed Garrett and Adrian Houser have picked up saves for the Mets. Garrett has been the top option for them and he remains the likely next in line candidate should Diaz miss time again. He is worth rostering for the time being. Jake Diekman is also a temporary band-aid who the Mets trust in late-inning situations. Still, with Diaz set to return this weekend, he is the only must-start reliever from this bullpen. More on another sneaky option from this pen later! 

Just in case anyone was wondering…

Sean Reid-Foley is eligible to return on July 5

Edwin Díaz will return on July 6

That’s 3 more games without SRF and 4 more games without Díaz

Again, just in case anyone was wondering

— Danny Abriano (@DannyAbriano) July 2, 2024

The Mariners had one save in the last week and it went to Trent Thornton. It was a rough week for both Ryne Stanek and Andres Munoz. Stanek allowed two runs and picked up the loss in his last outing. Meanwhile, Munoz has a 6.75 ERA and 3.00 WHIP with no saves and just 1.1 innings pitched in his last three outings. It is frustrating to see both options struggle, but it does not appear anything will be changing anytime soon. Both remain options you should roster and start for fantasy purposes. Munoz is the preferred option as he is who they primarily turn to in save opportunities. 

The Marlins are one of two NL teams that will clearly be sellers at the deadline. And by knowing that, there could be an advantage in making a trade sooner than later. The longer they wait, the more teams that could join them as sellers and lower the market value of their assets. Perhaps their biggest trade asset is closer Tanner Scott. He has been super reliable this season, picking up 12 saves and pitching to a 1.50 ERA. There are a couple ways you can try to get out in front of this. You can shop Scott now, if you have him, while he is still closing games for the Marlins. The risk here is that they do not trade him. Your standing in the saves category should help you make that decision. It does not hurt at all to try and see what kind of return you can get. You can also grab A.J. Puk, the likely primary replacement if Scott is dealt and Puk is not. 

Tanner Scott On The Trade Market https://t.co/ycAO0tqjKY

— RotoBaller MLB (@RotoBallerMLB) July 2, 2024

The Rockies are the other clear sellers of the NL. Currently, they have been splitting save chances between Jalen Beeks and Tyler Kinley. They also have Justin Lawrence as a late-inning option. The issue here is the Rockies may opt to shop all three. The real answer here is to shop the Rockies' current closer options while you can. If any is dealt, it is highly unlikely they will close games for their new team. And while it could come back to bite you if you trade the one that is left standing in Colorado, that realistically could be just 5-10 saves in the second half, with a gaudy ERA and WHIP. This bullpen is best left for the desperate. 

Speculative Saves for Fantasy Baseball 

The Astros bullpen is still stagnant, so do not panic just yet. Josh Hader remains the closer and even picked up two saves in the last week. But, he has a 6.00 ERA in that span and allowed a home run in two of his last three outings. His 16 percent home run to fly-ball rate would be the second highest of his career and the highest it has been in a season since 2019. Still, he is closing out games on a team that should win its fair share. I would not panic when it comes to Hader. In fact, I would do the opposite and try to acquire him for a little discount. It is more likely he fixes this home-run issue than he loses the gig. 

The defending World Series champion Rangers find themselves under .500 and quickly falling out of the divisional and Wild Card race. I have no doubts they will push this as far as they can and see if they can go on a run before the deadline. But if they don’t, shopping veterans Kirby Yates and David Robertson seem very realistic. You can shop Yates now if you have him, just like I said with Scott of the Marlins above. You could also nab Robertson if he is available, as there is a chance he could close out games on a new team. You could also nab and stash Jose Leclerc, who would likely be closing games if both veteran relievers are traded. 

Are you ready for the Rangers to be sellers at the Trade Deadline?@OThankKevin, @MikeBacsik and @inthemageors weigh in NOW on @kandc1053!

Listen: https://t.co/GpHxpsZxrO

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— 105.3 The FAN (@1053thefan) July 2, 2024

The Rays have gotten back to .500 and remain involved in the Wild Card race. This next month will determine a ton for them. But if they were to struggle the next month, they would likely be sellers. And if they do sell, sports anchor Xavier McKnight, who joined us on RotoBaller Radio this weekend, could see them dealing Pete Fairbanks. If they were to deal him, expect a committee between Garrett Cleavinger and Jason Adam and perhaps others, to split save chances. If you are desperate for saves in a deeper league, it is not a bad idea to stash those two. Adam is the one I prefer of the options here. 

The Angels will be sellers at the deadline. It feels like a safe bet that closer Carlos Estevez will be dealt. The issue here is so could veterans Luis Garcia and Matt Moore, who have been the primary setup men. You could stash either, with Garcia being most likely to take over if he himself is not dealt. The biggest thing to do now would be to shop Estevez, unless you are desperate for saves. Then take what he gives you over the next month and run. 

Elite Strikeouts and Ratios for Fantasy Baseball

Aroldis Chapman is closing games for the Pirates, so he is not available in a ton of leagues right now. But, he also seems like a safe bet to be dealt by the Pirates in the next month. He could potentially end up in a situation where he is dealt and enters the save picture on his new team, just like he did last year. My advice is to try and acquire him for cheap, or wait until the manager that picked him up drops him and then swoop in and nab him for cheap. 

I promised a sneaky option from the Mets bullpen and you know I will deliver. Dedniel Nunez may not be as sneaky now as when I first wrote about him weeks ago, but he is an awesome non-closer relief option due to the amount of innings he goes. Nunez has pitched more than an inning in eight of his last nine outings. Four of those he went two-plus innings. So in a given week, he can provide the same amount of innings as a one-start fringe pitcher, just with better results. Since April 27, Nunez has a 2.35 ERA, 0.83 WHIP, and 33 percent strikeout rate and has limited batters to just a .173 average. If you need a reliever to help stabilize your ratios, Nunez is an excellent choice. 

Devin Williams is slowly nearing a return and yet he remains available in over a third of fantasy leagues. I understand it is hard to stash a reliever in leagues without an IL spot, but if you are in need of saves -- what are you waiting for? Williams has been elite for years and could be closing out games for one of the better teams in the NL in the second half. The risk is that he does not get to close out games, but if you need saves, the upside greatly outweighs the risk. And the longer you wait, the more competition there will be for his services. Do so now while others are overlooking his return. 

Devin Williams will throw a bullpen on Wednesday, Pat Murphy said.

— Jack Stern (@ByJackStern) June 24, 2024

John Brebbia does not have pretty numbers this season. But, he does have two saves and appears to be next in line if/when the White Sox trade Michael Kopech. Brebbia himself could be dealt, but there will surely be much less of a market for an aging veteran having a down year. The White Sox could opt to hold him and let him close out games. He is a stash candidate for those afraid of losing Kopech or anyone desperate for saves in deep leagues. 

Make sure to follow Michael on X, @MichaelFFlorio. 

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