Florio's Bullpens and Saves Report - Monitoring for Future Closer Changes

June 7, 2023

Michael F. Florio reviews bullpens that have changed, closers to add off the waiver wire, and relief pitchers who are useful for fantasy baseball heading into Week 11.

Every week, I write about bullpens and I think “How much is going to change in the next week?” You would think it is not much, but a week can feel like a lifetime in some bullpens. And in others, you can go the entire season without any changes. But whether they are big or small or just eyeing a potential change down the road, I have you covered. 

And the changes are only beginning. The trade deadline shakes up bullpens across the league every year and we are yet to have any trades go down. But trust me, they are coming. And while it's impossible to guess exactly how things will change, it's fine to start looking ahead to teams that could be impacted. 

That is one thing I will start to do this week. While there have been no trades made, we can start to plan on what teams may opt to trade off some of their late-inning arms. It's never a bad idea to handcuff your closer or even add a reliever in one of these pens to attempt to get out in front of any trades. 

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Changing Bullpens for Fantasy Baseball

The Rockies' bullpen has been pretty straightforward this season. Pierce Johnson had picked up the first 11 saves for Colorado but has done so pitching to a 6.85 ERA and 1.88 WHIP. While he provided saves, it was unreliable giving up that sort of production. The last two saves have gone to Justin Lawrence, who has pitched to a 3.06 ERA, 2.62 xERA, and 1.08 WHIP with a 27 percent strikeout rate.

That’ll play for sure. On one hand, he appears to be the new closer on a team that likes to use one primary option. On the other hand, he pitches half his games in Coors Field. Because of that, keep your bids in check. I would recommend around 10 percent of your FAAB, but up to 12 or even 15 percent if you are desperate for saves, particularly for those in deeper leagues.

Daniel Bard remains an option here as well, but the longer we go without seeing him in the closer role, the more likely it becomes that he doesn't return to it this season. While he has a 0.55 ERA, the xERA is 7.02. Yikes!

The Cubs have been an inconsistent bullpen for much of the season, but things seem to have settled down. The Cubs now have two options that they trust in late-inning situations in Mark Leiter Jr. and Adbert Alzolay. In the last two weeks, two saves have gone to Leiter and one to Alzolay.

The bad part? Leiter leads the team with three saves all season. Still, he is the preferred option as he sports a 2.66 ERA, 3.46 xERA, and 0.89 WHIP with a 38 percent strikeout rate. Alzolay has a 2.25 ERA, 2.34 xERA, 0.86 WHIP, and a 26% strikeout rate. Leiter should be universally rostered, while Alzolay is in play in 12-team leagues or deeper. 

The White Sox have had four pitchers pick up a save already this season and that does not include Liam Hendriks, who returned last week. In the last week, he has picked up the lone save for the White Sox. Hendriks allowed a couple of runs in his first outing, and who can blame him given how emotional of a moment it was?

But in his two outings since, he has not allowed a base runner and struck out half the batters he has faced. Graveman should be started as long as he is getting saves, but Hendriks is coming. He is a great stash candidate that should be universally rostered. 

The Yankees bullpen has been extremely frustrating this season. In the last week, Clay Holmes and Wandy Peralta picked up a save each. As much as the fantasy baseball community may like Michael King or call Ron Marianaccio a sleeper, those two have been the most consistent late-inning options for the Yankees.

Holmes remains the top arm to roster here, followed by Peralta. Oh, and Tommy Kahnle just returned this week as well and could work his way into the late-inning picture. But for now, Holmes and Peralta remain the two to roster. The rest are players to keep a close eye on as this situation can change quickly. 

Speculative Saves for Fantasy Baseball 

The Cardinals have had a changing of the guard when it comes to saves. They may still list Ryan Helsley as the lead closer, but he has one save in the last two weeks to Giovanny Gallegos’ three. It doesn’t matter that his ERA in that span is over 10. If he is getting the bulk of save opportunities, he needs to be rostered and started.

For now, both of the Cardinals' late-inning arms can be started in fantasy baseball. But if I had to choose between the two? Give me Gallegos, as he just has the much larger track record as a closer, and it's how the Cards bullpen operated last season. Jordan Hicks and Genesis Cabrera are fallback options if the other two continue to struggle. 

The Red Sox have a set closer in Kenley Jansen. But in the last two weeks, he has pitched to a 3.60 ERA, with a 1.40 WHIP and 14 percent walk rate. There is no reason to panic yet, but I have seen chatter on social media if a change could be coming, so I wanted to include them. The Red Sox could also toy with the idea of trading Jansen depending on the standings come July. Two other arms to know in this pen are Josh Winckowski and Chris Martin. 

The Mets have three relievers they trust in their bullpen, which leads to all three getting some save chances. There is a clear pecking order here among David Robertson, Adam Ottavino, and Brooks Raley. Robertson is the top arm to roster, but Ottavino is also worthy of rostering in 12-team leagues or deeper. Raley is an option for those in NL-only or 15-team leagues or deeper. 

The A’s may not have a set closer. If I had to guess, I would recommend Richard Lovelady and Trevor May as the top options to roster in this bullpen. The issue? The A’s have not picked up a save in the last month. I know I always advocate that you can find saves on bad teams -- but the A’s are a different level of bad. They are an embarrassment. Honestly, you're better off avoiding this bullpen altogether. 

Elite Strikeouts and Ratios for Fantasy Baseball

Hunter Harvey is in the midst of a strong campaign. He has pitched to a 3.33 ERA, 3.93 xERA, 1.00 WHIP, and a 31 percent strikeout rate. Not only can he provide strong ratios and strikeouts, but he also has three saves on the year already. Plus, not only is he working his way into the current saves picture, but he should be next in line if the Nationals trade Kyle Finnegan. Harvey is one of the top non-closer relievers to roster in fantasy baseball. 

Tanner Scott has struck out 44 percent of the batters he has faced in the last month, the fifth-highest among relievers with double-digit innings in that span. He is behind only Felix Bautista, Alexis Diaz, Camilo Doval, and Craig Kimbrel -- not bad company to be in. Plus, he gives you close to starter innings as a reliever.

In that span, he has pitched to a 1.29 ERA with a 1.07 WHIP. Save chances are currently going to Dylan Floro, but Scott is an injury away from potentially closing out games. Either way, he provides elite ratios and strikeouts, and a lot of innings. Scott is an arm for those looking to use a reliever rather than a low-end starting pitcher to get ratios. 

I have written about Aroldis Chapman a lot this season, despite the majority of saves going to Scott Barlow. But do not overlook Carlos Hernandez. He has pitched to a 4.45 ERA, 3.41 xERA, and 1.12 WHIP with a 33 percent strikeout rate. The Royals could trade one or both of Barlow and Chapman. If so, the young Hernandez could close out games for them in the second half of the season. He provides ratios and strikeouts now but could get a big boost in value after trades start to happen. 

Jason Foley has pitched to a 1.42 ERA, 3.31 xERA, and 1.03 WHIP with a 22 percent strikeout rate. He provides really strong ratios and already has two saves this season. The Tigers are quickly falling out of contention. Closer Alex Lange is under team control for a while, so he is no lock to be traded. If a trade was to go down, Foley would be next in line in this bullpen. Foley and Lange are the same age and under team control, so both could be involved in trade rumors. 

Make sure to follow Michael on Twitter, @MichaelFFlorio. 

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