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Death, taxes, bullpens changing around the MLB.
I have spent a lot of time in recent weeks talking up the trade deadline and the number of bullpen moves we can see happen cause of it. That is not changing, in fact, it is quickly approaching, and you should remain ready to pounce if and when a new closer lands on the waiver wire. But, even without trades blowing things up, there’s a bunch of changing bullpens around the league.
Injuries, bad performance, and in some cases, vaccine status, has impacted things for multiple bullpens. Some are a short change, but others will be longer.
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Trade candidates: Jorge Lopez, Gregory Soto (and Michael Fulmer), Joe Barlow, Mark Melancon and Ian Kennedy, David Robertson (plus Mychal Givens and Rowan Wick), Daniel Bard and Alex Colome, David Bednar, Scott Barlow and Tanner Rainey.
Changing Bullpens for Fantasy Baseball
The Braves bullpen had been set all year until Tuesday when Kenley Jansen was placed on the 15-day IL with an irregular heartbeat. Obviously, first and foremost, we all hope everything is okay with Jansen and his health. But to put a fantasy baseball spin on it, the Braves bullpen will now be in flux for the first time all year, at least when it comes to the ninth inning. Will Smith is the top candidate to be the next man up as he has two saves already this season, has prior closing experience, and was penciled in as the Braves closer before they signed Jansen. He is the top reliever pickup of the week. A.J. Minter is a deeper option, but the Braves like using him in high-leverage situations. He is worthy of a pickup for ratios and strikeouts, especially now that he could see a save opportunity or two.
The Yankees are the most interesting bullpen in baseball right now. Aroldis Chapman has been sidelined due to injury and in his absence, Clay Holmes has been thriving. It doesn’t help that manager Aaron Boone has been giving mixed signals as to who would be the closer moving forward. Initially, he said that Chapman would return to the ninth inning. He then said that Holmes has earned the closer role. The most concrete information that we have is that Chapman will be used in low leverage situations initially to make sure he and his delivery are right. After that, we could see one, if not both, of these two options used in the ninth inning. Chapman is a free agent at the end of the season, so the Yankees are not tied to him for the long term for the first time in a while. Holmes provides such elite ratios and strikeouts that he is worth rostering even if he is not seeing the bulk of save chances. Both Holmes and Chapman are worth rostering moving forward.
The A’s put Dany Jimenez on the IL last week and over the weekend we saw Lou Trivino pick up two saves. We also saw A.J. Puk blow a save. This should answer the question of who the top option is in Jimenez's absence. Trivino is the reliever to roster and if he is still out there, he should be picked up. He remains a trade candidate, but any saves he picks up until then would be a boost.
The Phillies bullpen has been up in the air since Corey Knebel lost his gig nearly two weeks ago. In the past week, we have seen Seranthony Dominguez and Andrew Bellatti each pick up a save. Although manager Rob Thomson did say that Bellatti picked up the save because Dominguez and Brad Hand were each unavailable. Dominguez remains the top option here, not just for saves, but also for elite strikeouts and ratios. Hand is also worth a flier for save-needy teams. Bellatti is purely a deep league flier.
Speculative Saves for Fantasy Baseball
The Red Sox have a set closer in Tanner Houck - but due to vaccine status, he is unable to cross the border and play in Toronto. The Red Sox announced that ace setup man John Schreiber would serve as the closer for that series. This is more of a move for those in daily leagues or if anyone wants to take a one-week flier. But it is useful to know who the next man up in Boston is if anything should happen to Houck. Schreiber has pitched to a 0.79 ERA and 1.98 xERA, with a 0.71 WHIP and 31 percent strikeout rate this season. He provides elite ratios and strikeouts when not getting saves.
The Reds bullpen continues to be a tough one to figure out for fantasy baseball purposes. But, due to a surplus of arms on the IL, it may become a little easier. Over the weekend, Reds reporter Charlie Goldsmith joined us on RotoBaller Radio on SiriusXM and said you can trust Hunter Strickland to get save opportunities moving forward. The caveat was whether or not you can trust Strickland to be effective and turn those opportunities into saves. Strickland does have three saves in recent weeks and is clearly the top reliever to roster from Cincinnati. That is unless they trade him in the next month.
The Dodgers bullpen has been greatly impacted by injuries this season. Most recently, setup man Daniel Hudson joined Blake Treinen on the IL. That leads the setup job to open. You can expect flame-thrower Brusard Graterol to get a long look there. In fact, as of now, I would view him as next in line behind Craig Kimbrel. Graterol picked up a save in extra innings against the Braves, not allowing a run in the 11th after Kimbrel failed to slam the door in the 10th. Kimbrel has certainly struggled at times this season, pitching to a 4.13 ERA, 3.04 xERA, 3.08 xFIP, and 1.54 WHIP with a 34 percent strikeout rate. It’s fair to expect better results moving forward, but it’s still at least somewhat worrisome. Expect the Dodgers to be active in the reliever market as well.
Elite Ratios and Strikeouts
Diego Castillo has the lowest WHIP of any reliever who has pitched at least five innings in the past month. In that span, he has pitched to a 0.27 WHIP, along with a 0.82 ERA, 2.06 xFIP, 1.39 SIERA, and a 40 percent strikeout rate. He also has two saves for the Mariners and is part of their closer committee. Castillo is a must-roster reliever right now.
Joe Jimenez is a blast from the past. While he is no longer providing saves, he has been offering innings and strikeouts. In the past month, he has pitched 11 innings and has a 42 percent strikeout rate. In that span, the only relievers to go double-digit innings and have a higher strikeout rate than Jimenez are Edwin Diaz, Tanner Scott, and Andres Munoz. While he has a 4.09 ERA in that span, he also has a 1.69 xFIP and 1.36 SIERA, indicating that he has been better than the results indicate. He also sports a 1.09 WHIP in that span, showing that he can provide ratios and strikeouts.
Bryan Abreu has thrown seven innings in the past month, posting a 0.81 SIERA. The only relievers with at least seven innings in that span and a lower SIERA are Josh Hader and Edwin Diaz. Abreu has pitched to a 0.00 ERA, 0.55 xFIP, and 0.86 WHIP with a 44 percent strikeout rate in that span. He has been lights out and can provide both elite ratios and strikeouts for a team in need.
No reliever has provided more innings over the last month than Carl Edwards Jr. who has pitched 16 innings. He’s posted a 2.25 ERA, 3.57 xFIP, 3.26 SIERA, 0.75 WHIP, and 25 percent strikeout rate. He will not blow you away, but if you are in a deeper league, he provides fringe starter innings and likely better results.
Make sure to follow Michael on Twitter, @MichaelFFlorio.
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