Flex Heroes and Zeroes - Week 16 Fantasy Football Picks

December 23, 2018

RotoBaller lead editor Pierre Camus provides his favorite sleeper picks at QB, RB, WR, and TE, as well as players to fade for flex spots in Week 16 of the 2018 NFL season for fantasy football lineup prep.

Never give advice you wouldn't follow yourself. That's what your father would probably say. My dad has never said that to me. Not because he didn't believe it, it's just that his English isn't too good. He's Cuban and has lived in South Miami the past 43 years, so the only time he even needs to speak English is when I go over to visit during the summer. Even then, he'll usually talk to me in Spanish and I reply in English and we understand each other perfectly. I still call him Papi by the way. If you've ever watched "Highly Questionable" on ESPN, that Papi is actually a perfect representation of older Cuban fathers with an odd sense of humor. Maybe I can convince my dad to do a spinoff series on Youtube one of these days. I might have to explain what Youtube is first but he'll get it eventually.

On to the advice part! In this crucial week where many of you are fighting to win your league's title, I'm going to share player decisions that hit close to home in order to put my money where my mouth is. Yes, I am actually hoping that DT and a rookie TE named Jarwin lead me to titles. By the way, don't forget to tell @DemaryiusT Merry Christmas and Happy Birthday on December 25!

Now, here are my fantasy flex and streamer "heroes" and "zeroes" at each position for Week 16 of the NFL season. These players are borderline start considerations for your flex and superflex spots that I believe will perform unexpectedly well or that might fare poorly relative to expectations in this week's matchups. To see how our staff feels about every fantasy-relevant player in the known universe, look no further than our very own RotoBaller consensus weekly rankings. Good luck Ballers!

Week 16 Lineup Heroes

QUARTERBACK

Baker Mayfield, Cleveland Browns

Which rookie quarterback on a losing team do I want to trust my fantasy championship to this week? So many choices... It's a different world than where I came from, back when rookie quarterbacks were expected to watch on the sideline for a year or two and learn the nuances of the game before being thrown out to the wolves. With the exception of the infallible Dan Marino, it was almost unheard of that a rookie QB would be starting all season, much less being good. Mayfield has been pretty good but not great lately, at least in fantasy terms. He stands as the QB18 this year and has an uninspiring 4/4 TD/INT rate over the last three games. The schedule once again is the savior though. The game before those three was his four-TD effort against the Bengals, who still suck horribly on defense and still have Hue Jackson on their staff. I think the revenge motive is still strong here and the Browns won't hesitate to throw all over their division rival, even if they are up big at the half. No A.J. Green, no Andy Dalton, and now no Tyler Boyd... this could get ugly.

RUNNING BACK

Kenneth Dixon, Baltimore Ravens

Pivot time! Gus Edwards gave us a nice game in Week 15 with 104 yards and a touchdown, so I hope you were paying attention to last week's column (tell the truth  Santa knows). I'm fading him this week and picking up Dixon instead. The reason - game script. The Ravens would love to pound the ground all day but may not have that luxury on the road against the Chargers. Their run defense doesn't grade out as elite this year but look at how they've played since Joey Bosa returned. They've allowed an average of 87.8 rushing yards in the last five games, compared to 112.5 in the previous nine games. The Ravens have also had a pretty easy schedule lately, with losing teams like Cincinnati, Oakland, Atlanta, and Tampa Bay wrapped around Kansas City since their bye. This is a test in which Baltimore may find it tougher to run inside with Edwards, opting to use Dixon on outside runs instead or dumping the ball off to him. I wouldn't recommend him in non-PPR formats since the key here is the projected receptions totals. I'm not calling Dixon a league-winner but I'm going to go with him over guys like Josh Adams, Adrian Peterson, LeSean McCoy and.... Gus Edwards, who all run the risk of sinking you with a bad game.

WIDE RECEIVER

Demaryius Thomas, Houston Texans

Historically, Thomas has seemed to enjoy playing right around his birthday/Xmas and thrives late in the season. Then again, he probably enjoyed having Peyton Manning as a quarterback a lot more than Case Keenum or Paxton Lynch. With Deshaun Watson at QB, Thomas has been very OK. He's averaged 3.3 receptions and 39.7 yards per game in Houston, providing a modest floor in PPR but not much else. But wait... Good news everyone! His targets have kept going up each of the last four weeks, to eight in Week 15, only behind some guy named Nuk. He now gets to face a defense that is not only third-worst defending the WR, allowing the most yards (2,746) and 27 fantasy PPG, but is getting worse. Jalen Mills, Ronald Darby, and Rodney McLeod have been on IR and Sidney Jones is questionable, leaving the remaining secondary itself more than questionable. This is a game the Eagles absolutely need and the Texans definitely want for playoff seeding, so it could easily meet the over if the Eagles go back to their free-flying ways with Nick Foles at QB. Keke Coutee shows no hope for returning to the field soon, so expect Thomas to get enough catches for a solid WR3 day.

TIGHT END

Blake Jarwin, Dallas Cowboys

If my father knew anything about fantasy football, he would probably raise an eyebrow at the thought of playing Blake Jarwin in Week 16 with anything at stake. But what are your alternatives if you've been streaming or are stuck without a dependable tight end? Trust Austin Hooper after his catchless game last week? Hope Ian Thomas bounces back without Cam Newton? Roll out Jimmy Graham? Instead, let's chase the targets and go with a guy that has seen seven each of the last two weeks. the touchdowns aren't there yet but facing Tampa Bay could be the ticket. They allow the eighth-most fantasy points to tight ends. While I'll admit Tampa's defense has been sneakily good the last few weeks (see below), they could easily overlook Jarwin as they focus all their attention on stopping Amari Cooper and Ezekiel Elliott. As far as following my own advice, I added Jarwin this week and currently have him starting over my other tight end, Chris Herndon. I might have a last-minute change of heart but if so, I'll just go back and delete this column so as not to be hypocritical. I guess that means you're going to have to check back here at 12:59 pm EST on Sunday to make that tough TE decision.

Week 16 Lineup Zeroes

QUARTERBACK

Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys

There are so many superstar quarterbacks that could be benched this week, it's almost hard to pick. Although I personally would roll with Aaron Rodgers or Drew Brees without hesitation given the chance, there's another QB that is becoming a trendy pick that warrants mentioning. Many are looking at the schedule, seeing Dallas vs Tampa Bay and automatically thinking "easy matchup." And they'd be right, but for the wrong reasons. I'll mention Tampa's improving pass defense again because nobody seems to be paying attention to it. In their last six games, the Bucs have held five opponents under 200 total passing yards to an average of 193.6 YPG. Even with his Week 14 explosion/fluke game, Prescott averages 238 passing yards per game this season. With Amari Cooper, it's 274. With Cooper and without fluke game, it's under 250 again. The point is, unless you are really counting on Fluke Game 2 coming to a TV screen near you in Week 16, the ceiling is just not high without a rushing touchdown. Zeke will have his way this game and the Cowboys defense should nullify the need to throw it 30+ times. Prescott could sneak into the end zone on a run but that's not a risk I want to take if I have a better option.

RUNNING BACK

Mark Ingram, New Orleans Saints

It pains me to put him here, mainly because I have Ingram as my RB2 in two of the three leagues where I'm playing for the championship this week. It has to be said that Ingram is really going to need a red zone carry or two in order to have a chance for success. He's averaging 55 total yards per game over the last four contests and his receptions per game is half what it was last season. At 1.8 R/G, he doesn't have that high floor we came to expect. But let's talk touchdowns. The real reason Ingram was a fantasy RB1 last year even with Alvin Kamara playing at a ridiculous level was the career-high 12 TDs. This year, it's down to five. Sure, he missed Weeks 1-4 but even those five touchdowns have come in only three games. He did catch a touchdown in a Week 10 laugher against Cincinnati but that's still four games with a score, six games without. The Steelers have been a fairly tough team to run against, allowing nine rushing touchdowns to RB all year. I hope this week is an exception for my own sake but as a scruffy-looking nerf herder once said, I have a bad feeling about this.

WIDE RECEIVER

Mike Williams, Los Angeles Chargers

Last week's stud, this week's dud. I guess I should have used the words hero and zero there instead but it's too late since my backspace button is sealed shut from the vanilla frosting I suddenly dropped in the corner of my keyboard the other day while eating this giant cupcake shaped like Frosty the Snowman. Who thought that using Red Hots as candy buttons on a vanilla cupcake was a good idea, anyway? So as I was saying, Williams went ballistic last week with three touchdowns and a game-winning two-point conversion to almost single-handedly knock off the Chiefs. This came on a career-high nine targets with Keenan Allen out basically the entire game. You may be aware Melvin Gordon was also nowhere to be seen on the field. This is changing, as both are expected to play in Week 16. What will also change is the defense, quite drastically. Instead of the Kansas City secondary that allows the most passing yards in the NFL, it's the Ravens who have allowed nine touchdowns to wide receivers all season, three of which came in one game to one player, A.J. Green. Fewer targets, tighter coverage, and the promise of a lower-scoring game all conspire to make Williams a huge disappointment in the fantasy finals. Not quite as disappointing as a spicy cupcake but close.

TIGHT END

Chris Herndon IV, New York Jets

The tight end position is so shallow, it was a struggle to find anyone outside the top 10 that you would even want to consider starting this week. So, I'll borrow from my own column above and state once again that I am sitting Herndon in favor of Blake Jarwin. Herndon had a nice three-game scoring streak in the middle of the season but has been shut out of the end zone since Week 8. If you ain't scoring, you ain't worth streaming at TE. It's not as if the yardage has been great either, at 41.8 Y/G over the last six. In a year that has been massively disappointing for Miami Hurricanes fans, culminating in Manny Diaz leaving and QB of the future Jarren Williams transferring, it's only fitting that an ex-Cane follow suit. Oh, and bench Jimmy Graham too while you're at it.

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