Finding Tight End Breakouts - Champs, Chumps, and Contenders

October 29, 2021

Robert Lorge looks for fantasy football tight end breakouts heading into Week 8. He uses advanced stats for tight ends to find breakouts (champs) and fallers (chumps) to add or drop.

There is nothing more annoying than when the results don't line up with the process. It is, without a doubt, the worst part about fantasy football – and the best, if we're being honest. If the process was always right, this game we love would be a lot less fun if we knew all the answers. What really sucks is when someone asks your opinion and you give them a process-driven, stat-filled reason of whom to start and it backfires in your face. Well, actually, not in your face, but someone else's face. That is the worst. With that said, well played Mr. C.J. Uzomah, well played.

You see, last week I was asked a question on Twitter about which tight end to start. I was presented with several options, but the individual this player had planned on starting was C.J. Uzomah. Now, prior to last week, Uzomah had just 16 targets through six weeks or 2.6 per game. That is not very good at all. He was sitting on 165 yards, which amounts to 27.5 yards per game. Again, not very good. And then there's the fact that he's competing for targets with Ja'Marr Chase (maybe you've heard of him), Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd (you might not have heard of him), but regardless, there is a lot of target competition in Cincinnati. So when I was presented with the alternatives, pretty much all of them sounded better. Cole Kmet was coming off nine targets in his last two games and had the depleted Buccaneers' secondary on tap in a game everyone expected the coaching staff to finally let Justin Fields loose. Evan Engram, while he had a tough matchup against the Panthers, was primed to be one of the primary options for Daniel Jones with Kenny Golladay, Kadarius Toney and Saquon Barkley all out. Cameron Brate has been the primary receiving tight end for the Buccaneers in Rob Gronkowski's absence and you know, his quarterback is Tom Brady. Plus, Antonio Brown was out too! I gave a vote of confidence for any of those three over C.J. Uzomah. Based on their target share and their matchups, it all seemed to be the right process.

But sometimes – especially with tight ends – your best process can be completely turned upside down. Naturally, Uzomah received just three targets. If you had only told me that – boom, I would've been feeling good! But, he of course turned those three targets into 91 yards and two scores. Meanwhile, Kmet, Engram and Brate combined for 87 yards and 0 touchdowns. Well played, C.J. Uzomah. And whoever that was, if you're reading this, I apologize.

C.J. Uzomah, Cincinnati Bengals

Now, it's my turn Uzomah. You had your chance to shine on Sunday and boy, did you ever. You know what, I'm not buying it. Not even a little bit. How strongly am I not buying it? So strongly that if the number was set at 2.5 for how many touchdowns he would score the rest of the way, I'd take the under. That's right, I would take the under. Uzomah will score two or fewer touchdowns the rest of the season.

He is simply not involved in the passing game. In Week 1, he was fifth in targets with two. Week 2, he was tied for fourth with two. In Week 3, tied for fourth with one. He really showed off in Week 4 though. He racked up six targets and was third in targets – Tee Higgins didn't play, just an FYI. In Week 5, right back to more of the same. He was tied for sixth on the team. Sixth! With you guessed it, two. In Weeks 6–7, he was fourth in targets with three. Somehow, out of his 19 targets, he's scored five times. Now, you might be thinking, "but he's a tight end, Joe Burrow is looking towards his big-bodied tight end when they get inside the red zone." In theory, that makes sense. Maybe that could explain the high touchdown rate, but nope, it's not true. He has one target inside the red zone.

He has scored from 22, 32, 31, 55 and 2 yards away. Does that seem like a trend that is likely to continue? Just for reference, the year that Rob Gronkowski scored 17 touchdowns, his touchdown rate was 13.7%. Uzomah's is currently 26.3%. In terms of fantasy, he has 46.8% of his points coming from touchdowns. I'm no math genius, but if the touchdowns dry up, we have got a huge problem. Based on his usage, one should be expecting his touchdowns to dry up awfully fast. Tyler Boyd and Tee Higgins have combined for 85 targets and have three combined touchdowns. Meanwhile, Uzomah has 19 targets and five touchdowns.

If you rostered Uzomah prior to his Week 7 explosion, you should be trying to move him, like yesterday.

Zach Ertz, Arizona Cardinals

I've talked about Maxx Williams in the past and last week we covered what Ertz's usage might look like based on how the Cardinals used Williams. That said, Williams is not Zach Ertz. He's not even past his prime Zach Ertz, so fantasy managers need to be careful looking at Williams' usage and slapping Ertz with the same value. However, this was just his first game with Arizona, so it's likely he was held back some and it's fair to expect his role to grow as he becomes more comfortable. Still, let's take a gander at what we saw from him in his first game with the Cardinals

While he was the primary tight end, which should have been expected, Ertz only played 49% of the snaps. He ended up with 19 routes run, which was behind DeAndre Hopkins (33), A.J. Green (29), Chase Edmonds (26) and Christian Kirk (25). Rondale Moore was right behind Ertz with 16. It is a good sign that Ertz ran more routes than the fourth receiver right off the bat. There were some concerns the Cardinals may lean more heavily on their four wide receiver sets.

He finished with four targets, which ended up being third on the team in Week 7. He did happen to find the end zone in his first game with his new club. It was from 47 yards out – the longest touchdown of his eight-year career. This is an explosive offense and the former Eagle will no doubt have some more boom weeks in the future, but it'll be difficult to predict.

Outside of the two weeks Hopkins struggled through a rib injury, he's had a 28% target share – he's the alpha. That means Ertz is going to be fighting for Murray's attention with Kirk, Green, Moore and Edmonds on a weekly basis. He'll have his weeks and he'll have some stinkers, like any other tight end in that regard. Fantasy managers shouldn't be expecting consistent fantasy production from Ertz just because he's a member of the Cardinals. There are two many secondary mouths to feed after feeding the big fish on top. That said, if someone is valuing Ertz on his new squad like Noah Fant or Mike Gesicki, fantasy managers should jump at the opportunity to sell Ertz at that price.

Dallas Goedert, Philadelphia Eagles

For years fantasy managers have wanted Dallas Goedert to be unshackled Zach Ertz and it finally happened. The results were not "blow you away" kind of good, but the usage was. Remember, we're chasing usage, not points.

As expected, Dallas Goedert's usage was amazing in Week 7 with Zach Ertz gone:

* Ran a route on 88% of pass plays. For reference, Darren Waller leads all TEs in pass play involvement (90%).

* Lined up in the slot or as an outside WR on 70% of his routes, which is Kelce-esque.

— Graham Barfield (@GrahamBarfield) October 26, 2021

In Weeks 1–6, Goedert was averaging just three targets per game, which resulted in a 9% target share. In Week 7 – granted a one-week sample size, but right now, that's all we got – he had four targets and a 14.7% target share. With Ertz on the roster, Goedert averaged only 12.5 routes a game from a wide receiver position (slot or out wide) or roughly 36.5% of the time. This past Sunday, that number jumped to 70%.

That type of usage is something fantasy managers should be extremely excited about. Goedert is a free agent after this season, which is part of the reason Ertz was traded. The Eagles and the fourth-year pro had been unable to an agreement on an extension. The Eagles said they wanted to put Goedert into a featured role to see what he can do. Reading the tea leaves, that sounds a lot like Goedert wanted a big contract and the Eagles didn't want to give it to him – yet.

Both team and player, have a lot of incentive to use the rest of the season to make their mark. For Philly, they'd be smart to feature Goedert as much as possible so they can see what he can do as their featured tight end. That way, they'll have a better idea of what their top dollar will be for him in contract negotiations. For Goedert, it's simple. The better you play, the more you get paid.

Based on his usage in Week 7, fantasy managers should be treating Dallas Goedert just like T.J. Hockenson of the Lions. He immediately jumps into that category. I wouldn't be surprised to see him out-score Hockenson the rest of the way and he should be valued above Noah Fant.

Tyler Higbee, Los Angeles Rams

It's hard to pinpoint Higbee's fantasy upside – let me explain why. On one hand, he's had five or more targets in five out of seven games. That's excellent. In the other two games, he had one and two targets. That shouldn't be held against him though because there are very few tight ends who get 5+ targets in every game. Fantasy managers need to love that volume. The other thing they need to love is this...

Tyler Higbee has 11 red-zone targets this year but only one TD. In Week 8 he faces the Texans, who've given up a combined 5 TDs to Dawson Knox, Hunter Henry, Mo Alie-Cox and Zach Ertz over the last 4 weeks. 🤔

— Pat Fitzmaurice (@Fitz_FF) October 27, 2021

Not only is he receiving solid volume week-to-week (on the most part), he's also being used inside the red zone. He's tied for third in the NFL in red zone targets with Davante Adams, DeAndre Hopkins, Stefon Diggs, Calvin Ridley and Noah Fant. That's some really good company. On top of excellent volume numbers, in the past two weeks Higbee has played 100% of the offensive snaps for the Rams. So what's the problem?

He's tied for ninth among tight ends in targets. He's ninth in receptions. Among tight ends with at least 15 catches, he's fifth in his catch percentage. Somehow, however, he's just 15th in receiving yards. There are 35 tight ends in the NFL who are currently averaging three targets per game – Higbee is 33rd in average depth per target. He's 30th in air yards per game. He averages just 9.1 yards per reception – there are only four tight ends in the league with a lower yards per reception average that have at least 20 targets.

When you put it all together, Higbee is a safe, but boring tight end. His weekly target volume gives him a safe floor fantasy managers can feel comfortable in, but he's not someone that is going to rack up high yardage totals. If he has a boom game, it's going to be because he finds the end zone multiple times. The targets he gets are short and safe, which leads to a low yardage total. We've seen that through seven weeks. He has five out of seven outings with under 40 yards.

Noah Fant, Denver Broncos

There's a lot to like about Fant and one thing to be worried about – Jerry Jeudy. Through seven weeks of the season, Fant is the sixth most targeted tight end and has the fifth most receptions. Fant has a low yard per reception average, coming in even lower than Higbee. Fant is 26th out of 35 tight ends averaging at least three targets per game in average depth of target.

Fant and Higbee are very similar in that regard. They have a low average depth of target and a low yards per reception average. Like Higbee, Fant is also highly used inside the red zone, also having 11 targets through seven games in that area. A large part of Fant's value comes from the volume he receives on a weekly basis. He's had six or more targets in five out of seven weeks. What happens when Jeudy returns and how is he going to affect the target distribution?

Fant is just under the 90% mark in terms of route participation, running a route on 225 of the Broncos' 252 pass attempts. He's an integral part of Denver's passing attack. He's currently TE8 through seven weeks but falls to TE10 in points per game among those who have played in at least three games. If the return of Jeudy lessens his target share, even if it is minimal, it could result in Fant being more of a backend TE1 than the mid-tier TE1 he's been thus far.

Mo Alie-Cox, Indianapolis Colts

As far as fantasy value goes, Alie-Cox's is even more inflated compared to Uzomah's. Where Uzomah has run 177 routes and has been on the field for 77% of Cincinnati's plays, Alie-Cox has only run 96 targets and has only played on 52% of the snaps. Uzomah's touchdown rate is unsustainable, but at the very least he's on the field and running a good percentage of his team's routes. None of that is true for Alie-Cox.

Mo Alie-Cox has four TDs over his last four games, but he has not been freed. Just 12 routes run on 35 Wentz dropbacks last night.

— Adam Levitan (@adamlevitan) October 25, 2021

During the last four-week stretch where he's scored four times, he's only received 14 targets. During that time, he's run a total of 49 routes. For comparison sake, during that same four-week stretch where Uzomah scored five times, he's run 113 routes. There hasn't been one single week all year where Alie-Cox has run 20 routes. There hasn't been a single week where Alie-Cox has run a route on half of Wentz's attempts.

Alie-Cox is averaging just 2.7 targets per game, 25 yards and 13.7 routes run. There's no volume here that should excite fantasy managers. Avoid the touchdown appeal, it's not real.

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