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The start of the event is almost here! Here are some of Spencer's favorite DraftKings PGA DFS lineup picks for the ZOZO Championship.
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Thank you for joining me today for my official DraftKings selections for this week's event. If you haven't had a chance to already, here is my Monday DraftKings article - a piece where I provided in-depth insight into my early takeaways for how the venue will play from a statistical perspective. While most of that information remains relevant, especially when discussing how I handicapped the event in my model, consider this article your final stop for all things DFS on Wednesday afternoon.
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PGA DFS Rankings Wizard - ZOZO Championship
Here is an updated look at my model! I will be using this brand-new link until Wednesday night, and you will notice round one DraftKings pricing has been included, as well as new ownership totals and drift percentages.
DraftKings Players ($10,000+)
Sungjae Im ($10,000) – Sungjae Im has one of the cleanest profiles my model has seen in quite some time, ranking first in every iteration of how I ran my sheet for the week. While I realize the ownership is troublesome since some contests might push out to 40% for the South Korean star, I do want to note that there are various ways to play him because of how he shapes up for all game types.
I am going to go against my initial stance of not becoming involved in the head-to-head market this week, and I will grab Im at -120 on DraftKings over Tom Kim in round one - something I alluded to in my first-round showdown article here at RotoBaller. The edge for me comes from the upside Im is showing, not something that is leading me against Kim, which is a different approach than I normally take in this market, but I am trying to find as many ways as I can to get exposure to the top-ranked golfer in my model.
Other Thoughts - My model doesn't see much of a difference between Xander Schauffele ($10,800), Hideki Matsuyama ($10,400) or Collin Morikawa ($10,200). All are playable since they make up the top-four names when I add Im back into the equation, but those are decisions you will have to make! We can't play everyone, but I do want to note that none of them are natural fade candidates.
$9,000 Range
Cameron Young ($9,300) - We have talked a little this week about how weather, mainly rain, might affect the early portions of this tournament, and I ran a side viewpoint on my model to examine what golfers would see the most significant boost in soft, wet conditions on Wednesday evening.
I want to note that this section was put together in a way that didn't allow the high-end golfers in the field to see as large of an increase because it was more challenging for their power ranking totals to be increased, but the top 13 players who "theoretically" should see the greatest advantage early in the event when comparing my baseline totals versus what wet conditions might do to the event would be: Patrick Rodgers, Wyndham Clark, Kurt Kitayama, Luke List, Beau Hossler, Lucas Herbert, Cameron Champ, Cameron Davis, Cameron Young, Rickie Fowler, Scott Stallings, Dylan Frittelli and Tyrrell Hatton. Most of those names are going to be your sub-$8,000 players that might be worth a shot if their popularity dictates taking a chance, but the four notable movers near the top would be Hatton, Davis, Stallings and Young.
All of those names become more intriguing if we believe the early portions of this tournament naturally could increase their projections, but it is Young that becomes the most enticing because of what it did to his win equity in my model. My sheet believes 14/1 is the correct outright number for him when we consider all factors, and I love that we are getting one of my highest-upside players in the field as the seventh choice on the DraftKings board.
Tommy Fleetwood ($9,200) - It is a tale of two tapes with Tommy Fleetwood at the ZOZO Championship. Sharper markets seem to be out because of his inferior output totals in long-iron proximity and total driving, but the top-end version of Fleetwood from a few years ago was a golfer that excelled in those metrics, meaning the ability for him to turn around his outlook could be just around the corner.
We have seen some of that life come back into the fray with fourth-place finishes at both the Scottish Open and Open Championship events, and the increase that he sees on my model when faced with a challenging course is notable, as he ranks second for the week in my sheet from an overall grade perspective.
Tyrrell Hatton ($9,100) - Tyrrell Hatton is the only golfer above $9,000 who enters Wednesday morning at a projection amount of under 10%. I do realize some of the statistical data will look flawed when running a model, especially if you look at it from a more recent perspective, but the Englishman's current form and top 15 grade on my sheet are strong enough reasons to make him one of the better pivot spots on the board if you are looking for a contrarian choice.
Other Thoughts: The ownership totals for Tom Kim ($9,700) and Corey Conners ($9,000) both feel fair, although Viktor Hovland ($9,500) creeping up to 14% makes him a natural fade spot.
$8,000 Range
I continue to find this range weaker than most in the space. I couldn't come up with a strong route I wanted to go in the $8k section on Monday, and it doesn't seem like much has changed 48 hours later.
Other Thoughts: Si Woo Kim ($8,800), Tom Hoge ($8,600) and Cameron Davis ($8,500) are all in play for me because of their flat marks across the board, whereas Mito Pereira ($8,300) and Sebastian Munoz ($8,100) have taken massive ownership spikes over the past 24 hours. It doesn't mean I am not considering Pereira and Munoz, but you must keep that in mind when forming your roster construction. Those five, mixed with Christiaan Bezuidenhout ($8,000), are names I am considering when building out 150 lineups, but I likely won't have much exposure to anyone if I only make a few builds.
$7,000 Range
Kyoung-Hoon Lee ($7,900) - The form is impressive; the course history has provided a top-20 in his only attempt and the par-five scoring and scrambling, when merged into one category, does move him into the top 10 profiles in the field.
Mackenzie Hughes ($7,600) - Mackenzie Hughes ranks sixth in this tournament on average/challenging scoring venues and is also inside the top 15 when it comes to my recalculated sand save, around the green, bogey avoidance and scrambling category.
Like K.H. Lee, the form is impressive, the course history has produced a top-four finish last season and the ownership is projected to be under 10 percent. Consider Lee and Hughes to be two enticing pivot options in the $7,000 section that will give you a mixture of safety and upside.
Aaron Rai ($7,500) - Aaron Rai has some boom-or-bust appeal for those willing to stomach the volatility. We know that he has found success on foreign soil in the past, and my hope is that the statistical makeup that I used to mimic Narishino Country Club might generate a higher floor for Rai than we are accustomed to historically. Rai ranks in the top half of the field in every category that I ran, which means if the floor has increased because of a course-specific fit, the playability across the board will be enhanced when we consider his already built-in higher ceiling than some in this range.
Rickie Fowler ($7,400) - I know I keep going back to the same takeaway over and over again, but it is a no-cut event. Everyone is guaranteed four days, and the potential upside that my model sees will play a significant impact on roster construction.
I watched Rickie Fowler in person on Thursday at the Shriners Open, and the play was much worse than the score, but even during that volatile round, there was life shown for why he could excel any given week. I wouldn't be shocked if we run into a situation here where Fowler outproduces the names he finishes around in DFS because of the points he provides from his random birdie onslaughts, and I am going to bet on that high-end version of him to find more opportunities to deliver than most in this field.
Luke List ($7,300) - When a course gets more challenging, putting sees its importance diminished. It is one of the reasons quality ball strikers always show up on leaderboards of events where the winning score shrinks, and I am going to take a similar thought process here by playing Luke List.
The form has been horrible after posting no top-60 results since the Travelers Championship eight starts ago, but the non-putting metrics have remained steady, gaining with his OTT + APP output during every performance.
Patrick Rodgers ($7,300) - The weighted proximity is seven spots better at Narashino than my baseline expectation, and the distance he adds off the tee should be an advantage over the field. That is a strong combination for a golfer that can randomly spike.
Alex Smalley ($7,100) - Alex Smalley seems like a hill I am willing to die on every week. I am marginally lower on him than usual, but he ranks in the top 25 of the field both off the tee and approach over my two-year baseline projections.
Additional Options To Consider: The no-cut nature has me more inclined to take random shots on players like Luke List, Patrick Rodgers and Rickie Fowler than I normally would in a standard event. The same sentiment goes for an option like Wyndham Clark ($7,200), but I couldn't get my model to find enough it liked, even if he did see a massive increase in wet conditions.
$6,000 Range (Top Options To Consider)
Dylan Frittelli ($6,900) - Frittelli is the highest-ranked $6,000 golfer in this field, according to my model.
Beau Hossler ($6,700) - Here is a list of golfers that saw the biggest increase in my model when faced with soft conditions.
Options I am Prioritizing:
| Player | Price |
| Sungjae Im | $10,000 |
| Cameron Young | $9,300 |
| Tommy Fleetwood | $9,200 |
| Tyrrell Hatton | $9,100 |
| Kyoung-Hoon Lee | $7,900 |
| Mackenzie Hughes | $7,600 |
| Aaron Rai | $7,500 |
| Rickie Fowler | $7,400 |
| Luke List | $7,300 |
| Patrick Rodgers | $7,300 |
| Alex Smalley | $7,100 |
| Dylan Frittelli | $6,900 |
| Beau Hossler | $6,700 |
You can use my model (or the other recommendations in this article) to continue to fill out your player pools.
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