FFPC Playoff Challenge #2 Winning Strategies

January 13, 2021

The FFPC (Fantasy Football Players Championship) is the place for serious fantasy players to compete in the second NFL playoff challenge for high-stakes postseason action. Pierre Camus explains the format and gives his divisional round lineup strategy for 2020.

If you missed out on the initial FFPC Playoff Challenge or simply want in on more postseason fantasy action, you're in luck! FFPC Playoff Challenge Round 2 is open and seeking competitive players looking for high-stakes action. You can also take part in the FootballGuys Playoff Challenge for an equal challenge with a smaller buy-in.

In my previous strategy article, I broke down the rules for this contest along with lineup suggestions so it's best to refer to that piece for newcomers. Scott "The King" Engel also provided his fantasy playoff rankings for those joining the FFPC Playoff Challenge.

This article will explain the key differences for this second contest along with updated lineup suggestions to make the optimal build.

What's New for Challenge #2?

To begin, let's review the rules and updated prize structures for the latest contest in the divisional rounds.

The roster construction is adjusted from the original Playoff Challenge. Now, eight players are required at these positions: QB-RB-RB-WR-WR-TE-FLEX-FLEX. Managers must choose exactly one and only one player from each NFL team.

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How Do You Like Your QB Seasoned?

There is a clear dichotomy between the AFC quarterbacks and NFC quarterbacks in this year's playoffs. The average age of the remaining QB in the AFC is 24.5 while the NFC is 36.7. You can opt for a mobile athlete like Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen, Baker Mayfield, or Patrick Mahomes with tremendous upside or you can choose from veteran pocket passers like Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady, Drew Brees, or Jared Goff. Since the priority is placing in the top three and not keeping a high weekly floor as in a season-long H2H matchup, the choice seems clear but remember that we're also looking for a player who is likely to play multiple games, ideally all the way to the big game.

Rodgers is a man on a mission but he faces a Rams Defense that was #1 in pass defense, limiting opposing quarterbacks to a league-low of 18.1 fantasy points per game and a 19-15 TD-INT rate in 17 games. If he gets by this round with a decent output, he then gets the prospect of a tasty matchup with the Bucs or Saints and possibly a trip back to the Super Bowl as the top seed. Rodgers has to be considered a top-three choice.

Brady had another big game in his first playoff appearance as a Buccaneer, throwing for 381 yards and two TD in the win over Washington. That makes five out of the last six games, dating back to Week 12, in which he's thrown for at least 345 yards. The Saints were not one of those teams he put up big numbers on, however. In the two games between these divisional rivals, Brady averaged 224 yards and he finished with more interceptions (five) than touchdowns (two). This Saints Defense is no joke so Brady should be faded.

Brees had a decent game in the win over a good Bears Defense but he isn't his former self who puts up huge games on a regular basis anymore. Brees only topped the 300-yard passing mark three times all year and he offers exactly zero upside as a runner. In two games against the Bucs defense, he did toss six touchdowns but averaged only 191 yards. That can't match the competition on the other side of the bracket.

Jared Goff wasn't even healthy enough to play the entire game in Seattle and has to be considered the last possible choice at quarterback.

What about the AFC side? Is there a young quarterback we can trust aside from Mahomes?

Let's start with the fact we might have to scratch Mahomes completely off the list simply because we need Kelce on the roster (see below). As great as Mayfield was against the Steelers for two straight weeks, I'm still not trusting him over last year's MVP or this year's potential MVP.

The decision may come down to which passer you believe will come out on top in the Buffalo-Baltimore matchup. Josh Allen has been on a roll but he gets a tough test in Baltimore and then would have to get by the Chiefs (or Cleveland). Allen is the high-risk, high-upside pick that could become a league winner in the postseason much like he was in season-long fantasy leagues. The safer choice is Rodgers since his team is favored to make it through the NFC. I consider Lamar Jackson a distant third choice. Ultimately, this decision comes down to which team you place your faith in.

Don't Forget the TE Premium

Travis Kelce hasn't made an appearance in the postseason yet but choosing him is an even stronger bet in the divisional round contests for that very reason. Mark Andrews caught four passes for 41 yards without a score in the first-round victory over Tennessee and is still going. However, that's not much of an advantage and he is now on equal footing with Kelce in terms of games played from here on out. I previously recommended Logan Thomas as a strong one-and-done candidate if you opted to go with Mahomes instead of Kelce and he delivered with five catches for 74 yards, good for 15 fantasy points in the FFPC Challenge. He's no longer an option, though. There are so few quality tight ends left and it's a big stretch to imagine that Robert Tonyan might be taken instead of Aaron Rodgers, Davante Adams, or Aaron Jones. Kelce is practically a must-draft.

One wrinkle that could play well under differentiation options is the addition of a second tight end in a flex spot due to the premium scoring. Mark Andrews didn't have a big game on Wild Card weekend but could easily wind up pacing the Ravens in fantasy scoring this weekend. Buffalo allowed the fourth-most fantasy points to tight ends on the season and there's a good chance the Ravens might have to pass to keep up with the Bills.

If you want to get crazy, try putting both Andrews and Austin Hooper in your flex spots. Hooper caught seven of 11 targets a week ago. While he only came away with 46 yards, he scored a touchdown. It's hard to imagine the Browns putting up a 48 spot again but this could easily be a high-scoring affair with the Chiefs. Both Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt produced well but game script may not be so conducive to the running game this time around. It's a gamble but the Browns are likely to have just one game left in their postseason run so it's all about this particular matchup and they have been more generous to tight ends defensively, ranking 25th, as opposed to wide receivers (fourth) or running backs (22nd).

Forecasting Flex Matchups

L.A. Rams @ Green Bay Packers

The Rams were underdogs at home to the Seahawks but took care of business even with a backup quarterback on the field to start the game. It was all about Cam Akers, who finished with 176 total yards, the second-most by a rookie in a playoff game in the Super Bowl era. Matching up with the Packers on Lambeau Field will be a steeper challenge but not an insurmountable one with their superior defense.

This comes down to the implied point total of 20 points for L.A. The current over/under is 46.5, which is the lowest of the four games in the Divisional round. Although the Packers have had their share of letdowns on defense early in the year, they've tightened up considerably allowing 16 points or fewer in four of the last five games. Combined with Goff's thumb issue that led to a 9-for-19 game in relief of John Wolford, we shouldn't expect too much. Cooper Kupp or Robert Woods feel too safe here so Akers is the best bet.

On the Green Bay side, Davante Adams is chalky but also the right call. Concerns about Jalen Ramsey are legit but also overblown. Those who faded D.K. Metcalf in the first round were likely stunned to see him go for 96 yards and two scores after previously being held in check twice by the Rams. The Rodgers-Adams connection is special and there is no other Packer with nearly the upside in this matchup.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ New Orleans Saints

This is all about the receivers, as Ronald Jones' health is up in the air, which makes Leonard Fournette's value questionable as well. The Bucs struggled to generate offense in any way when these teams met twice earlier but Ryan Succop isn't an option and we aren't opting for Brady or Gronk over the likes of Allen or Kelce.

Mike Evans has emerged as the clear alpha dog, averaging five receptions and 79 yards on eight targets per game in the second half of the season. In the win over Washington, he led the team with 119 yards. But... Chris Godwin led the team with 12 targets and found the end zone whereas Evans didn't. Both could be valuable but in this matchup, there's a personal twist. Evans has had a long-running beef with Marshon Lattimore that seems to affect him.

Better luck next year https://t.co/Dox6xiDwpN

— Marshon Lattimore (@shonrp2) November 9, 2020

It doesn't mean Evans gets shut out but I'll opt with Godwin for this one.

In New Orleans, Alvin Kamara is the obvious pick except that he isn't. The Bucs have transformed into a funnel defense, shutting down rushing offenses while bleeding yards to pass offenses throughout the latter portion of the season. Michael Thomas is just different enough to give you an edge if he shows up as he did in the Wild Card game. He scored his first touchdown of the entire year and came away with 73 yards even though the Saints were never in must-pass mode. He could be in store for higher volume going forward.

Baltimore Ravens @ Buffalo Bills

On the Baltimore side, I thought J.K. Dobbins was a strong pick last week based on his late-season surge and the Ravens' desire to establish the run in close contests. He did reach the end zone but mostly disappointed with 43 rushing yards on just nine carries. It seems that Lamar Jackson will be the alpha and omega of this team's offense in the postseason. Marquise Brown is unlikely to repeat his 109-yard game against Tre'Davious White, so that leaves Mark Andrews as the player with the best upside if we go elsewhere at QB. Lamar Jackson could be playing in his first-ever snow game, although it's unclear if that would actually alter the team's strategy much.

If Josh Allen isn't the choice at QB, it should be a WR for Buffalo. Zack Moss is out for this game but that doesn't make Devin Singletary a strong option. In the three games Moss missed during the regular season, Singletary averaged 76 scrimmage yards with a total of one touchdown.

Singletary has the breakaway speed to turn in a big play and could be leaned upon more if the passing game struggles but this Buffalo team seems content to let Allen win games with his arm (and legs).

Stefon Diggs is the chalk play but it should be noted he is nursing an oblique injury. Cole Beasley returned from his own injury (knee) to catch seven balls for 57 yards. Both were limited in practice midweek but should be good to go by the weekend.

John Brown didn't catch any of his four targets against Indy despite a strong game in Week 17 versus Miami that indicated he was healthy. Meanwhile, rookie Gabriel Davis went for 85 yards in the victory and has emerged as the top deep threat as of late. He averaged 17.1 yards per reception on the season and makes for an intriguing boom pick. The prospect of snow in Baltimore could limit the deep passing game, though.

All that said, this deep receiving corps faces a Ravens Defense that allowed the fewest yards per target (6.97) and second-fewest touchdowns (12) to wide receivers in 2020. Without a clear-cut favorite or realistic options at RB or TE, choosing the right Bills receiver could mean the difference between cashing in or not. Sticking with Diggs makes the most sense but Beasley is awfully tempting as a safety valve that Allen could rely on in a tight game.

Cleveland Browns @ Kansas City Chiefs

The team with the most viable options should be the easiest choice. I simply can't advise any player other than Kelce due to his massive advantage at the position. That statement would hold true even without the TE premium of 1.5 points per reception. Kelce was second in the NFL in receiving yards regardless of position. As explosive as Tyreek Hill is, there is no tight end that comes close to matching Kelce's value.

Cleveland has several tempting choices but it should boil down to either Nick Chubb, Kareem Hunt, or Austin Hooper. While Jarvis Landry has suddenly made a habit of finding the end zone, scoring in four of the last six games after not scoring at all in the first 10 games, he has just one 100-yard game on the year and doesn't have the ceiling for this kind of tournament. Chubb is a touchdown machine and churns out big games on the regular but the risk is that the Browns don't have the luxury of handing the ball off enough to produce a huge game. Kareem Hunt is potent in the red zone too, as shown by his two touchdowns against Pittsburgh, and faces his former team in a game where he could be used heavily as a pass-catcher. His volume is far from guaranteed, however. In half of the games played in 2020, he finished below fantasy RB2 level. Hooper is the wild card here, as he could be a sneaky differentiation pick for what looks to be a one-and-done situation.

Differentiation Options

I've previously explained the rationale behind this but as a quick reminder - don't go all chalk. The best players don't always come away with the best fantasy games and you can't win a large tournament without distinguishing your roster from the rest of the crowd. Just choose wisely and don't get too deep. Tyler Higbee isn't the answer.

Some differentiation plays to consider for Playoff Challenge #2 include: Austin Hooper, Antonio Brown, Leonard Fournette, Devin Singletary, and Baker Mayfield.

It's Not Too Late!

Now that you've got the lowdown on how the league is played and some pointers on building a championship team, it's up to you to take the next step. Sign up for the FFPC Playoff Challenge 2 and try it out!

Playoff leagues provide a different twist on season-long fantasy football and offer a way to come up with unique strategies that will keep you invested in the NFL postseason even if your favorite team isn't involved. Good luck, RotoBallers!

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