Fantasy Impact: Making Sense Of The New-Look 76ers

December 5, 2020

Justin Carter looks at the offseason moves by the Philadelphia 76ers and what those moves will mean for fantasy basketball managers ahead of the 2020-21 NBA season.

The 2020-21 Philadelphia 76ers are going to look a lot different than the team that they were last season.

Gone are Al Horford and Josh Richardson, the two big additions last offseason. New faces in Philly include Danny Green, Seth Curry, Dwight Howard, and rookie Tyrese Maxey. But as of now, two key things remain the same for new head coach Doc Rivers: Joel Embiid and Ben Simmons are the leaders of this team.

Figuring out how this Sixers squad works will be important for anyone planning to draft Philly players in fantasy, so let's take a look at how things will likely shakedown this season.

Joel Embiid, Ben Simmons, and Tobias Harris Return

Three big names remain in Philly this season: Joel Embiid, Ben Simmons, and Tobias Harris.

In our current 9-Cat rankings, Embiid comes in 15th, then Simmons is just behind at 23, while Harris is at 51.

Honestly, there's not a lot to say about Embiid and Simmons. As long as we're giving up on the illusion that Simmons will suddenly start taking threes, we have a pretty good idea of what both guys are.

Embiid is a sometimes-injured big man who is going to shoot between 46 and 48 percent from the field. He'll score in the mid 20s most nights, will average a double-double, and should see a slight uptick in blocks to around 1.6 per game. He'll give you solid assist numbers, and he'll probably take a few more threes than you want him to while shooting in the low 30s on them. He'll do a very obvious pump fake from the arc then drive inside for two once per game and every time you'll be amazed it worked. Maybe his scoring average goes up a tiny bit -- more on that later in the article.

As for Simmons, his field goal percentage has gone up each year, but at 58 percent last year there likely isn't much more room for growth. He'll probably average around 17 points per game -- his career high is 16.9 -- and probably won't average 2.1 steals again, though something like 1.7 or 1.8 is easily within reach. He'll also give you around eight boards and eight rebounds per game. He'll take a three once every 10 games or so. Again, just not a lot of surprises should be expected with Simmons.

Harris, though. With Horford gone, Harris should be back at the four full-time instead of starting at and playing a lot of minutes at the three. That's a spot that makes a lot more sense in terms of modern NBA team building.

A big thing that should improve is his three-point shooting. With more spacing, we'll likely see a number that climbs back closer to 40 percent, which he'd been trending towards before last year's 36.7 percent. We should also see one or two more rebounds per game, and maybe a slight uptick in scoring. Assists could go down. Overall, Harris will be a solid player, though as the third option, his ceiling will be slightly limited.

How Danny Green and Seth Curry Fit On The Wing

Shooting!

Better shooting should help this entire team out, but that doesn't mean these two are great fantasy options on their own.

We're higher on Curry, who comes in at 120 in our rankings based on the assumption that he'll be the starting two. That's a role that Josh Richardson held last year and got 11.7 shot attempts per game in, including 4.5 threes on 34.1 percent shooting. Curry shot 45.2 percent from deep and has shot 42.5 percent or better in each of his full NBA seasons. Slide him into the same role that Richardson had, and Curry can averaged 15 points per game. He won't do a ton else, but he'll be a cheap source of points, threes, field goal percentage, and potentially steals.

We're much lower on Green, who took a step back last year in Los Angeles. Can he get back to being a 40-plus percent shooter from deep in his age-33 season? Would it even matter if it wasn't accompanied by an increase in volume, as he's averaged under 10 points per game in all but three of his NBA seasons?

Probably not. Green's still got the ability to be a solid player when it comes to helping the real life 76ers, but he's not going to contributing much to the fantasy squads who draft him.

Can Tyrese Maxey Break Into The Rotation?

Right now, Shake Milton enters the season as the backup point guard for Philly.

I like Milton. A lot of Sixers people like Milton. He played 40 games last year, averaging 9.4 points and 2.6 assists per game, plus shot 43 percent from behind the arc.

But Tyrese Maxey, the 21st pick in this year's draft, should be able to carve out a role at some point this year. He's an explosive athlete who can scorer on drives and has great touch in the paint. His defensive ability will also help him find minutes, as he can defend strong at the point of attack.

His lack of shooting is an issue, but he's flashed some ability at lower levels to shoot, even if he struggled at Kentucky.

But anyway, this is a fantasy article, so let's not spend much time on the Sixers backup point guard role. Maxey might crack the rotation, but he's unlikely to have a fantasy impact outside of some ultra-deep leagues. His potentially playing time is capped by Ben Simmons being the starting point guard, as there's not much you can do as a backup when you have a point guard as good as Simmons starting.

Dwight Howard: Should We Care?

Howard's role seems pretty well-defined this year: he'll back up Joel Embiid. Howard isn't Al Horford, so don't expect the Sixers to put out two-center lineups like they did last year, when Horford's stretch ability theoretically made that idea make sense, even if that pairing had issues last year.

Embiid should benefit from playing as the lone center. When he shared the floor with Horford last year, he shot 46.9 percent, a number which rose to 48 percent when Horford was off the floor. Improved spacing has Embiid trending up.

Anyway, this section is about Dwight Howard.

His role last year saw him play in 69 regular season games with two starts, averaging a career-low 18.9 minutes per game with 7.5 points and 7.3 rebounds per contest.

So, to answer the question posed in the headline? We probably shouldn't care too much about Howard from a fantasy perspective, because his minutes are likely to drop a bit more backing up Embiid, who will average around 30 minutes per contest. Howard likely slots in around that 18 per game mark from last year, though some potential Tony Bradley minutes could drop him a bit more. He's worth a late round pick because he can provide rebounds and a high field goal percentage, but his role really limits his upside.

Where Howard's value comes in is when Embiid sits, whether due to injury or rest. It'll happen, and in those games where Howard slides into the starting lineup, he should see a big increase in value.

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