Free Agency Winners - Wide Receiver Risers

March 28, 2020

Phil Clark's biggest wide receiver winners and fantasy football risers from 2020 NFL free agency. These WRs could be sleepers and undervalued draft targets.

The doldrums of the offseason have been erased by a surge of news and events that transcend sports. The state of affairs around the globe has altered our usual sports-viewing habits. But as we adapt to an evolving daily existence with severely reduced sports activity, NFL free agency has been a welcome reprieve.

Free agency has also played an integral role in reshaping the fantasy landscape, as a sizable number of players have experienced changes in destinations and expectations. Robby Anderson and Breshad Perriman were among the players whose situations were unresolved entering the second week of free agency. But within a four-hour span, both receivers had relocated to new franchises. More roster movement is looming in the weeks ahead, which will affect the decision-making of fantasy owners.

The team at RotoBaller is providing articles, rankings, and other resources that will help you plan your upcoming drafts, and manage your dynasty rosters. That includes our Free Agency Winners and Losers series that examines which players are due for a rise or decline in production. This breakdown will focus on the biggest winners at the wide receiver position.

Adam Thielen, Minnesota Vikings

It is virtually impossible to create a winner's list that does not contain Thielen, who should enter the season as Minnesota's unchallenged WR1. His career path with the Vikings was recently examined here. It included his rise from the practice squad in 2013 to both Pro Bowl appearances that he achieved in 2017-2018. In 2018 he was also fourth in targets (153), third in receptions (113), any eighth in both yardage (1,373) and touchdowns (9).

The unwavering positive momentum in his career suddenly stalled during 2019 (48 targets/30 receptions/418 yards), as a lingering hamstring issue sidelined Thielen from Weeks 7 -14. His production was also constrained by Minnesota's semi-fanatical commitment to the run last season (29.2 attempts per game). The Vikings averaged 29.1 passing attempts per game, which ranked 30th overall. Kirk Cousins was also just 24th in passing attempts (444).

Former teammate Stefon Diggs contended with frustration throughout 2019. But he leaves the Vikings having accumulated 450 targets, 313 receptions, and 3,903 yards during his final four seasons with the team. That includes his team-high 94 targets last season. Those will now be redistributed, and Thielen should capture a healthy percentage of those opportunities. This will offset much of the remaining downside that exists with Minnesota's extensive commitment to the run.

The Vikings' depth chart at wide receiver beyond Thielen is in need of attention, and it is unlikely that the Vikings will proceed with Bisi Johnson or newly acquired Tajae Sharpe as their WR2. General Manager Rick Spielman has now stockpiled a total of 13 draft picks that can be used to expand the receiving arsenal. But Thielen emerges as Cousins' primary weapon, and his value is ascending as a result.

Emmanuel Sanders, New Orleans Saints

Sanders has emerged from free agency with an opportunity to relocate in a favorable environment, as he will now transition to a New Orleans offense that will place him in a position to flourish as the team’s WR2. The Saints were in definite need of an upgrade at the position, and Sanders ultimately opted to join Sean Payton, Drew Brees and the passing attack that ranked seventh last season (265.3 yards per game). Sanders began 2019 by collecting 16 of 20 targets for 184 yards and two touchdowns as a Bronco in Weeks 1-2, then surpassed 100 yards in Week 4 (104). That completed an amazing recovery from the devastating torn Achilles that ended his 2018 season.

He also captured 36 of 53 targets for 502 yards and three scores with the 49ers from Weeks 8-16. while demonstrating his remaining potential to capitalize on appealing matchups. He now transitions to an aerial attack that features Michael Thomas, whose exceptional season included collecting nearly 30 more targets than any other receiver. Thomas also led the position in receptions (149) and receiving yards (1,725) by equally comfortable margins.

But if you remove Thomas and his league-best 33.1 target share from the equation, the Saints’ weaponry at the wide receiver position consisted of Ted Ginn (56 targets/30 receptions/421 yards) and Tre’Quan Smith (25 targets/18 receptions/234 yards). Neither player evoked a massive degree of fear in opposing defensive units. This resulted in New Orleans wide receivers collecting just 51.6% of the team’s targets - even though Thomas led the league in that category. It is difficult to envision a more enticing landing spot for Sanders. He should easily exceed the usage that Ginn and Smith were allotted last season, and he could eclipse their combined output.

Deebo Samuel, San Francisco 49ers

Samuel had already emerged as a viable breakout candidate in his second season even before Sanders’ situation was resolved. Now the departure of Sanders has created a dearth of competition for targets at Samuel's position. Sanders finished second among San Francisco’s wide receivers in targets (53), receptions (36), and receiving yards (502) during 2019. That leaves Samuel positioned at the apex of the 49ers’ depth chart with only Kendrick Bourne, Trent Taylor, Jalen Hurd, Travis Benjamin, and the increasingly disfavored Dante Pettis below him.

This should propel Samuel to favorable weekly target totals, and he should capitalize on his distinctive skill-set to accumulate substantial numbers. 27 teams targeted their wide receivers with greater frequency than San Francisco during 2019, (50.3%), as the 49ers were an unsurprising fifth in tight end targets (27.9%) and 15^th in their usage of running backs (21.8%). Samuel and Sanders combined for 134 of the 181 targets that were distributed to their position (71%). This presents Samuel with an enormous opportunity to join George Kittle in collecting a favorable number of receptions.

While the 49ers did sign Benjamin, John Lynch and Kyle Shanahan will further address their glaring need at wide receiver. However, Samuel should remain San Francisco’s most dynamic weapon at the position. If Samuel had sustained his yards-per-game average from Weeks 10-17 over the course of a 16-game regular season (72 per game), he would have accumulated 1,152 yards. That would have placed him 13th overall during 2019. That average should expand, as should the 6.2 targets/4.4 receptions per game that he registered during that same sequence. These factors have created Samuel's undisputed status as 49ers’ WR1 while vaulting him among the select cluster of winners at his position.

Breshad Perriman, New York Jets

Even though Perriman did not receive a long-term contract, he did emerge within a New York offense that required downfield weaponry. That is a need that Perriman can address, and it also represents the latest phase in his career transformation. The former first-round pick had averaged 42 targets, 59 receptions, and 305 yards during three highly disappointing seasons from 2016-2018, along with 3.6 targets, 1.2 receptions, and 15.4 yards per game entering Week 13 last season. Those anemic numbers were not surprising, as uninspiring results had remained an ongoing occurrence since the Ravens had drafted him in 2015.

However, season-ending hamstring injuries that were suffered by Mike Evans (Week 14) and Chris Godwin (Week 15) suddenly launched Perriman into an extensive role as Tampa Bay’s primary receiving weapon. That also fueled a career resurrection, as Perriman performed on 90% of the Buccaneers’ offensive snaps from Weeks 14-17. This propelled an unprecedented statistical surge, as he led the NFL with five touchdowns during that four-game sequence. He also finished fourth in receiving yards (419), 13th in targets (31/7.8 per game), and 14th in receptions (20). The 6’2”, 215-pound Perriman can now use the same combination of size and speed that allowed him to generate those results while running routes with the Jets.

New York’s 29^th ranked passing attack failed to average 200 yards per game during 2019 (194.4), while only six teams manufactured fewer touchdowns through the air (19). But the Jets did target wide receivers with the league's third-highest percentage (66.4%), and Anderson’s departure opens 94 of those targets for redistribution. Perriman will have the opportunity to secure a significant role within a receiving unit that currently contains Jamison Crowder, Quincy Enunwa, Vyncint Smith, and Josh Doctson, That provides Perriman with a pathway to WR3 production as a weekly vertical presence.

Randall Cobb, Houston Texans

Trading DeAndre Hopkins has dispatched Houston to loser status in the free agency process, and Cobb does not remotely resemble a replacement for Hopkins. But Cobb is included among the winners after relocating to a Texan offense that has been severely depleted. All questions surrounding Bill O’Brien’s thought-process are justifiable, after his decision to discard Hopkins weakened the Texans’ passing attack. But Cobb’s stock rises, after he exchanged operating as a WR3 within a talent-rich Dallas unit for a chance to provide Deshaun Watson with a steady weapon in the slot.

Cobb played on 720 snaps in 2019, while performing inside on 90.3% of those plays. He also generated his highest yardage total since 2015 (828), secured a team target share of 14.3%, and finished third among Dallas receiving options in air yards (789). The 29-year old also registered the best yard per reception average of his career (15.1), along with the third highest yard per target average since 2014 (10.0).

While further alterations to the receiving weaponry are likely, Watson’s diminished list of options consists of the following components -  Cobb, Will Fuller, Kenny Stills, Keke Coutee, and DeAndre Carter. Cobb’s prowess inside should compel Watson to locate him within a unit that largely lacks dependability.

Fuller’s prospective home run hitting capabilities have been rendered unusable far too often due to his inability to elude protracted injuries. In 2019 he was 14^th in targets entering Week 7 (48/8 per game) and was second overall in air yards (700) before a hamstring injury forced him from the lineup until Week 12. He has now missed 22 contests since 2016, which has offset the dynamic but infrequent big plays that Fuller intermittently delivers. Stills also provides home run hitting potential without consistency, while Coutee’s numbers universally declined in 2019. All of this supplies Cobb with a runway to function as a frequent inside target for Watson.

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