Finding Tight End Breakouts for Fantasy Football – Cracking the Code for Week 2

September 16, 2022

Robert looks for fantasy football tight end breakouts heading into Week 2 (2022). He uses advanced NFL stats for tight ends to find breakouts and fades.

Last year I approached RotoBaller asking to write a weekly tight end article on their utilization metrics, hoping to find some underlining hints on certain players that might pop in the future or that we should be writing off. They gave me the green light and here we are. I knew going into this article that the tight end landscape was brutal. It is. It is every year. If anyone tells you the position is deep, they’re most likely someone who is far too optimistic for my tastes.

The reality is that the tight end position is a dumpster fire. This is just the way it works. Last year, looking at utilization trends we were able to identify potential breakouts in Hunter Henry and Dawson Knox fairly early by looking at some of these advanced metrics that can tell us a different story than what we might see in the box score.

Take O.J. Howard, for example. He left Week 1 with 16.8 half-PPR points and was the TE2 on the week. He happened to find the end zone twice. He ran six total routes and had just two targets. Don’t chase touchdowns, but especially don’t chase touchdowns from guys who are barely even playing. Taysom Hill was the TE3 with 14.8 half-PPR points. He had one target and ran four routes. Unless you’re expecting your tight end to rush for 81 yards and a touchdown on four carries, you should probably just go ahead and ignore Hill completely. And that’s what we’re looking to do here. We’re looking to use utilization trends to identify potential targets and ignore those mirages. Like Howard and Hill. Let’s get started.

Things Are Not As They Seem

Hayden Hurst, Cincinnati Bengals 

On the surface, the box score might indicate fantasy managers have another option at tight end with Hayden Hurst. After all, there are not many tight ends who rack up seven targets per game. In fact, only five tight ends had more targets than Hurst in Week 1. You combine that high number of targets with five receptions and he’s someone fantasy managers should be looking to add in any PPR setting, right?

Wrong. This game was the absolute best-case scenario for Hurst. Consider, Tee Higgins left the game in the second quarter due to a concussion and finished with just two targets. His absence opened up additional targets. For someone like Hurst who is likely fourth or maybe even fifth on the target hierarchy every week, this was huge for him.

The league leader in offensive plays per game last year averaged 69. This week in the overtime game the Bengals ran 100.

When Tee Higgins is back, Hayden Hurst likely goes back to being a guy you can’t start in fantasy.

— Andrew Cooper (@CoopAFiasco) September 14, 2022

It wasn’t just that though. The Bengals went into overtime with the Steelers and they finished with 100 plays on offense. In 2021, the most plays per game on average was right at the 70 marker. The Bengals had 100. Not only did Hurst get 30% more snaps to make a fantasy difference, but he didn’t have to compete with top-15 wide receiver, Tee Higgins for 75% of the game either.

See what I mean about Week 1 being an absolute best-case scenario for Hurst’s’ fantasy appeal? Less target competition. More pass plays. All that resulted in was five catches for 46 yards. His 0.90 yard per route run average tells us just about everything we need to know. Everything about his Week 1 performance was a mirage. Don’t fall for it.

Tyler Conklin, New York Jets

Tyler Conklin meet Hayden Hurst. We can pretty much copy and paste almost everything from Hurst’s paragraph here and it would mostly fit. He had 83 targets last year in Minnesota and almost 600 yards, so I can understand the appeal. However, that only happened because Irv Smith Jr. got hurt, but we digress. He still did that.

Now in New York, who also signed C.J. Uzomah, you know the dude who was in Cincinnati last year? The same role Hurst finds himself in? Yeah, that dude. Just because we’re here, Uzomah finished with 49 catches and 493 yards last year. Just in case you’re still trying to talk yourself into Hayden Hurst.

Anyways, okay… Tyler Conklin. Focus. While this game didn’t go into overtime, Joe Flacco had 59 pass attempts. Speaking of inflated volume, this pretty much qualifies. Tom Brady, who attempted the most passes last season, averaged 43 per game. The Jets averaged 35. Conklin and every single Jets’ pass-catcher was playing with house money on Sunday.

If there’s a positive for Conklin it’s that he played 77 snaps to Uzomah’s 23 and ran 50 routes to his 11. That route run number is going to end up being excessively disproportionate to what he will have every other week for the rest of the season. All of those pass plays, all of those routes run, amounted to five targets and 16 yards. Yes, he happened to find the end zone, but again, we’re not chasing random touchdowns. Random touchdowns will happen. Just ask O.J. Howard and Devin Duvernay.

Conklin had a great game script with excess opportunity and failed to produce a stat line that produces any amount of confidence moving forward. He’s fifth on the target hierarchy between the three receivers and the running backs. Don’t even bother.

Kylen Granson, Indianapolis Colts

Throughout the preseason it certainly looked like Mo Alie-Cox was finally going to get a chance to be the primary tight end. Jack Doyle had retired and Alie-Cox was the next man up, right? In theory that seemed correct, but Alie-Cox is who he’s always been and when the games finally became real, Alie-Cox didn’t change. That’s a good thing for Kylen Granson, right?

Meh, not really. You could look at the box score and see that Granson garnered six targets to Alie-Cox’s one. Or you could look and see that Granson was tied for second in targets among the Colts and get excited. Let me save you the trouble. Don’t.

While six targets look nice on paper and they most certainly do. What does not look nice is only 26 routes run on 50 pass attempts. That’s barely above a 50% route participation and that simply is not going to cut it. It’s not even going to come close.

Per @PFF, Kylen Granson ran 29 routes to Mo Alie-Cox’s 20 routes on Matt Ryan’s 54 drop backs.

Looks like IND hasn’t given up on the TE by committee approach.

— preston (@FF_Engineer_) September 14, 2022

We can say that Granson is the Colts’ preferred pass-catching tight end and at that same time acknowledge that distinction doesn’t really mean anything. Don’t be star-struck by his final target total. There’s nothing to suggest that’s going to carry over, especially when he’s running a route on just 50% of the team’s pass plays.

Temper Expectations

Gerald Everett, Los Angeles Chargers

Gerald Everett popped in Week 1, to the tune of 12.9 half-PPR points, and finished with 3 catches, 54 yards, and 1 touchdown. Looking at the box score, fantasy managers would be absolutely in love with the performance and for the most part, there was a lot to like. Let's break it down.

Gerald Everett's #Chargers debut:

* 44-of-67 snaps (65.6%)
* 31 in-line, 7 slot, 4 wide, 1 OL, 1 backfield
* 23 routes on 34 Justin Herbert dropbacks
* 4 targets for an 11.7% share
* 3-54-1 result

— Adam Levitan (@adamlevitan) September 12, 2022

Let's get the bad out of the way before we focus on the good and there really was a lot of good. His snap count isn't really where we'd like it. While he played the most snaps of any Chargers' tight end, it wasn't a big leap. Tre McKitty played on 40 snaps compared to Everett's 44. That's not something to get too hung up on because there are no points to be earned on running plays.

In the routes run department, Everett lagged behind what we'd ideally want in our fantasy football tight ends. Running a route on just 67.6% of his team's routes isn't as high as we'd like it to be. 70% is really the bare minimum we should be searching for with 75% being the ideal number and 80% being the number we get really excited about.

One of the bigger concerns looking at Everett in the preseason was that he was always going to be the fourth or maybe even fifth option in the passing game behind Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, Austin Ekeler, and sometimes even Joshua Palmer. This issue was present this past Sunday with just an 11.7% target share and that was with Allen missing most of the game.

The good news is that the high passing volume in Los Angeles can overcome a paltry target share number. Herbert had 674 attempts last year and with an 11.7% target share, Everett would finish with roughly 79 targets. That's not nearly enough for top-10 fantasy status without a very high touchdown rate, but with Herbert and the Chargers, that's a possibility.

The other number to get excited about was how Everett was used. His 18-yard per reception average was excellent, even while admitting that won't hold. It demonstrates his utilization down the field. That's backed up by a healthy 7.3 average depth of target. If he's used down the field and near the end zone, Everett has the chance of turning in a Dawson Knox-like season where despite low target numbers, he can still be a fantasy asset due to explosive plays and touchdowns.

In the end, while the offense and team volume presents opportunity, if fantasy managers are really to trust Everett on a weekly basis, his route participation and target share number will need to increase.

David Njoku, Cleveland Browns

David Njoku was one of the favorite sleeper picks at tight ends this season. The Browns released Austin Hooper and absolutely gave Njoku the bag. All the signs were pointing up. He finally looked like the sole tight end in Cleveland and with a lackluster receiving core, the possibility of him becoming their No. 2 target earner was certainly within the range of outcomes. While all of those things are still true, Week 1 certainly put a damper on what fantasy managers can expect moving forward.

There are some positives and negatives to take away from Njoku's Week 1. For starters, the snap share is excellent. Being on the field for almost 89% of his team's snaps cements his status as the team's primary tight end. That's a great thing because, in the past few years, head coach Kevin Stefanski has chosen to use a tight end by committee approach.

As great as the snap share looks, there are some negatives, as well. Let's start with just how run-heavy the Browns were in Week 1. They had just 34 passes to 39 carries. That is not an ideal ratio for any fantasy pass-catcher and it's not something that is likely going to change in the near future with Jacoby Brissett behind center.

Even more problematic was his target share, which amounted to a paltry 3%. He ran a route on 28 of Brissett's 38 dropbacks, which shows potential moving forward. This amounted to a 73.6% route participation number. That shows that Njoku was getting the opportunity, which is good. The bad is he did absolutely nothing with it. He earned just one target and finished with seven yards.

There are most certainly better days ahead for Njoku and one bad week doesn't mean his potential as a sleeper pick is gone, but there are some questions moving forward. The run-heavy Browns' offense will limit his opportunities and he'll need to do a whole lot better earning targets if he's going to be someone fantasy managers can depend on.

Tyler Higbee, Los Angeles Rams

Fantasy managers need to simmer expectations on Tyler Higbee for one simple reason. He's been in Los Angeles under Sean McVay for a number of years and he's never been anything more than a middling TE2. He is who he is, but because he finished with 9 targets, we're obligated to touch on him.

Higbee ran 46 routes on Thursday night vs the Bills. This was the third-most for the Rams and just four behind Cooper Kupp. That's excellent, but it's nothing new. He ran the sixth-most routes last year too. He's always been given the opportunity in terms of snap share and route participation.

Top-5 TEs in Week 1 Target Share

1. Tyler Higbee 27%
2. Pat Freiermuth 26%
3. Mark Andrews 23%
4. Travis Kelce 23%
5. Dalton Schultz 21%; Kyle Pitts 21%

— Alex Johnson (@a_johnsonFF) September 14, 2022

Last year, he had a 15.7% target share. In 2020, it was 11.3%, and in 2019 it was 15.9%. He's never even remotely came close to the 27% target share he posted in Week 1, much less 20%. In 2021 and 2019, he had 85 and 89 targets, respectively. With Mattew Stafford behind center, those kinds of target numbers can make him fantasy-relevant.

Still, I'd advise caution. With 9 targets, he managed just 7.1 half-PPR points and there's a reason for that. His average depth of target was an absolutely disgusting 2.7 yards. There's no upside with that kind of utilization. He averaged just 7.8 yards per reception and 20 air yards, which leaves an awful late to be desired.

While the overall targets and target share numbers look appealing, the reality is no matter what you think of Allen Robinson, he's not going to command just one target moving forward. His target share will drop and when it does, fantasy managers are going to be disappointed with a player whose average depth of target presents no upside.

They Are Who We Thought They Were

Hunter Henry, New England Patriots

Hunter Henry finished with just 3 half-PPR points on just two targets. Certainly, a performance fantasy managers weren't really happy with, but this is who Henry was last year. It's who almost every tight end is. There are plenty of positives to take away from his performance, however.

For starters, he ran a route on 28 of Mac Jones's 33 dropbacks.  That is an elite 85% route participation rate. There were some concerns that Jonnu Smith could impede Henry's passing role, but that wasn't the case in Week 1. Even more appealing than his route participation number was his average depth of target.

As we already touched on with Higbee whose average depth of target was just 2.7, Henry's average depth of target sat at a very appealing 12.3 yards. The Patriots' run-heavy system isn't ideal, but Henry was heavily used in the red zone last year and there's no reason to believe that'll be any different this year. Fantasy managers should stay the course and there's no reason to be altering your opinion of Henry after Week 1. His target share was always going to be an issue, but his downfield utilization and red zone work would keep him afloat. All of those things are still true, just like they were last year.

Dawson Knox, Buffalo Bills

While fantasy managers shouldn't be concerned about Henry or at the very least, they shouldn't be changing their preseason opinions based on what we saw in Week 1, there are some concerns regarding Dawson Knox.

There was some hope that Knox could command a larger target share this year in the event that maybe Gabriel Davis wasn't up to the task of being the No. 2 target in Buffalo. That looks unlikely to become a reality. Knox finished with just two targets, but his target share was lower than what fantasy managers would've liked last year too.

However, one of the things fantasy managers didn't have to concern themselves with was Knox's opportunities in the passing game. Knox had a route participation rate of 86% last year, which helped alleviate some of his target share issues because he was almost always on the field when Josh Allen was throwing the football. In Week 1, however, Knox's route participation was just 65.7%. That may have been a matchup-based decision to deal with Aaron Donald's pass rush, but after Week 1, it's not the best of looks for his fantasy managers.

In the end, it shouldn't alter your opinion of who Dawson Knox is too much. Nothing really has changed. Knox was the primary tight end for the Bills. He hardly left the field. There will be other weeks where he's running routes at a much higher rate and the touchdowns will most likely come because the Bills' offense is explosive and Josh Allen is borderline unstoppable. If you drafted Knox, you should've known what you were getting yourself into – Week 1 did nothing to change that.

So You're Telling Me There's A Chance...

Juwan Johnson, New Orleans Saints

Juwan Johnson was a sleeper target last year and while that never came to fruition in 2021, this new season has a far different look to it. While Taysom Hill may have solidly outscored Johnson, it's Johnson's utilization that should pique the interest of fantasy managers.

He ran a route on 80% of Jameis Winston's dropbacks, an elite number. In comparison, Adam Trautman and Hill each ran only four routes. Johnson is the unquestioned pass-catching tight end in New Orleans. Not only that, but he's the primary tight end even on a snap count basis. Johnson played 45 snaps to Trautman's 25 and Hill's 16.

10 tight ends ran a route on at least 70% of their team's Week 1 dropbacks and got targeted on at least 15% of the routes (PFF)

Travis Kelce
Dalton Schultz
Tyler Higbee
T.J. Hockenson
Pat Freiermuth
Mark Andrews
Kyle Pitts
Darren Waller
...
Juwan Johnson
Albert Okwuegbunam

— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) September 14, 2022

Johnson earned four targets on Sunday, which was tied for third for the Saints. The former wide receiver brings with him an explosive skillset and the Saints sought to utilize him in that manner. He had a 12.4-yard average depth of target, which illustrates the team's willingness to use him down the field. He also ran 67.6% of his routes from the slot.

All of his underlying metrics show a player that needs to be on the radars of any fantasy manager who decided to wait on the position in their draft this summer. He was running a route at a high number, he was being used in the slot, and being used down the field. His history at receiver makes him all the more appealing. Don't be surprised if he becomes a priority add in future weeks.

Possible Tight End Breakouts

Dallas Goedert, Philadelphia Eagles

It's wheels up for Dallas Goedert and it could lead to a career-best season. Jalen Hurts looked far better in the pocket and the Eagles opened up the passing game in Week 1 against the Lions. Hurts dropped back to pass 41 times this past Sunday. That increased passing volume elevates the upside for all of their pass-catchers.

Of those 41 dropbacks, Goedert was in a route on 34 of them, an elite 82.9% rate. More importantly for Goedert and his fantasy managers, he was second on the team in targets. Going into the 2022 season, the concern regarding limited passing volume in Philadelphia meant that one of Goedert or DeVonta Smith would likely disappoint. If the team keeps dropping back to pass 41 times, there's room for both of them to succeed, but it was still excellent news that Goedert out-targeted Smith in Week 1.

Goedert averaged 20 yards per reception and posted an elite 1.58 yard per route run average. The Eagles' pass rate climbed in Week 1 and Goedert's utilization metrics combined with his elite efficiency indicate a breakout season may be on the horizon.

Pat Freieremuth, Pittsburgh Steelers

With Chase Claypool entering his third season and George Pickens recently selected in the 2022 NFL Draft, there didn't seem to much of a chance for Freiermuth to break out in his second season, but then Week 1 happened.

Week 1 TE fantasy usage leaders:

1. Pat Freiermuth (14.4 exp half PPR)
2. Travis Kelce (14.2)
3. Hayden Hurst (13.0)
4. Tyler Higbee (11.3)
5. Darren Waller (10.4)
6. Tyler Conklin (10.3)
7. Logan Thomas (9.7)
8. Dalton Schultz (9.6)
9. Kyle Pitts (9.1)
10. T.J. Hockenson (8.7)

— Hayden Winks (@HaydenWinks) September 12, 2022

He ran a route on 75.6% of Mitchell Trubisky's dropbacks and earned a 23.6% target share. He finished Week 1 with a 2.42-yard-per-route run average and a healthy average depth of target at 8.7 yards. He averaged 15 yards per reception, displaying elite efficiency on top of excellent utilization metrics.

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