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Fantasy Football Tight End Preparation for Week 10

Dalton Kincaid - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, Waiver Wire Pickups

Rob looks for tight end rankings sleepers for fantasy football Week 10 (2023). He identifies tight end breakouts and avoids, diving into advanced statistics.

Tight ends are popping off left and right! First, it started off with Sam LaPorta. It wasn't long after that until Dalton Schultz started breaking out with rookie sensation, C.J. Stroud at quarterback. Around that time, Trey McBride exploded onto the scene with Zach Ertz going on IR. Now, it's Dalton Kincaid's turn. We certainly can't forget about Taysom Hill in all of this either. All of a sudden, the tight end position is looking awfully strong.

Going into Week 10, you might be surprised to see that I have two rookie tight ends in the No. 1 and No. 2 spots for the week. That said, fantasy managers have lost two weekly starters in Dallas Goedert and Darren Waller. Waller is currently on IR and it's possible Goedert is going to end up there as well. While many will express disappointment in Waller's 2023 season, a lot of that has to do with bad touchdown luck. Despite missing all of last week and most of the week before, Waller is still eighth in total targets, ninth in total receptions, and tenth in total yards among tight ends. Not too bad considering the missed games and the ineptitude of the Giants' quarterback play and offense in general.

Now entering Week 10, there isn't a ton of movement in terms of player utilization. At this point of the season, players are who they are for the most part. Certainly, we're seeing an expanded role for Trey McBride and Dalton Kincaid. Let's start breaking down the first nine weeks, identify some of the changes we're seeing at the tight end position, and eventually, finish with my weekly tight end rankings.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy football rankings for 2025:

 

Weeks 1-9 Statistical Review

With receivers, we can often look at raw target data and target share to get a pretty good idea of which players will be productive and which ones we should be chasing. With tight end, that’s not quite as effective because with smaller numbers, even just 1-2 extra or fewer targets can make a difference in target share numbers.

Instead, we want to focus on opportunity, which includes raw targets, target share, snap share, the raw number of routes run, and route participation rate. Below is a table based on nine weeks of the NFL season. These statistics are based on the numbers and stats found at PFF, which is an incredible site filled with amazing data.

Player Snap Share Route Participation Routes Run Target Share Targets Per Game - Sorted Red Zone Targets
T.J. Hockenson 83% 84% 321 22.8% 8.5 8
Evan Engram 77% 86% 274 22.5% 7.6 2
Sam LaPorta 82% 80% 249 20.3% 7.3 7
Darren Waller 85% 85% 218 21.4% 7.0 4
Mark Andrews 77% 86% 249 22.9% 6.4 10
Dallas Goedert 89% 86% 303 17.4% 6.0 7
Kyle Pitts 61% 75% 262 17.6% 5.8 4
Logan Thomas 71% 77% 259 13.7% 5.7 5
Dalton Schultz 69% 74% 231 18.1% 5.5 7
David Njoku 80% 80% 252 16.6% 5.5 5
George Kittle 88% 88% 227 18.0% 5.3 7
Cole Kmet 84% 77% 252 17.5% 5.2 8
Tyler Higbee 92% 86% 303 13.3% 5.2 3
Dalton Kincaid 66% 73% 241 15.4% 4.8 5
Jake Ferguson 72% 72% 224 15.6% 4.7 12
Chigoziem Okonkwo 72% 74% 202 15.3% 4.5 2
Jonnu Smith 61% 62% 217 13.2% 4.5 5
Luke Musgrave 71% 77% 197 13.7% 4.4 3
Trey McBride 51% 44% 146 14.0% 4.3 4
Hunter Henry 76% 71% 247 12.6% 4.2 2
Cade Otton 97% 86% 266 13.8% 4.1 2
Tyler Conklin 70% 68% 214 13.1% 4.1 2
Gerald Everett 59% 52% 130 10.1% 3.8 5
Dawson Knox 68% 64% 176 11.3% 3.8 6
Juwan Johnson 73% 71% 131 11.2% 3.5 2
Pat Freiermuth 64% 74% 70 10.2% 3.2 4
Irv Smith Jr. 57% 65% 164 8.8% 3.0 2
Mike Gesicki 53% 56% 197 8.3% 3.0 3
Taysom Hill 43% 42% 155 7.9% 2.7 4
Noah Fant 52% 45% 130 6.2% 2.2 1
Michael Mayer 65% 48% 153 6.8% 2.1 2

 

Dalton Kincaid - Another Top-5 Rookie Tight End

Don't look now, but Kincaid is absolutely busting out. From Weeks 7-9, Kincaid is averaging 12.5 half-PPR PPG. Over the course of the season, this would rank as the TE3 behind Travis Kelce and Mark Andrews. Over these last three weeks, Kincaid has recorded at least seven targets, five receptions, and 65 yards in each game. His per-game averages from the last three weeks would result in 147 targets, 129 receptions, and 1,251 yards. Now, of course, he's not going to produce at that level the rest of the season, but it does put into perspective just how insanely good his stretch has been.

Timeframe Target Per Route Run Target Share Targets Per Game Receptions Per Game Yards Per Game
Weeks 1-6 14.6% 10.8% 3.8 3.4 23.6
Weeks 7-9 24.5% 21.8% 8.6 7.6 73.6

From the table above, you can see just how much more productive Kincaid has been recently. His target per route run rate has increased by almost 10 percent and his target share has gone up by 11 percent. A big reason for the change has been due to his opportunity. From Weeks 1-6, his route participation was at just 66 percent. From Weeks 7-9, that has risen to 82 percent. This can directly be tied back to fellow tight end, Dawson Knox going on IR with a wrist injury. He's eligible to return in Week 12, so Kincaid will have two more weeks to state his case for No. 1 tight end duties in Buffalo's offense. At this point, with how much Buffalo is lacking offensive play-makers behind superstar Stefon Diggs, it's hard to imagine Kincaid being put back in the bottle.

If anyone in your league rosters Kincaid and can be talked into "selling high" with the eventual return of Knox, I would pay the price. I believe Kincaid has top-five potential for the rest of the season and can be viewed as an elite option at the position. Part of the appeal to Kincaid was that Buffalo lacked a consistent No. 2 option in the passing game and that much is still true. We know Diggs is going to be the No. 1 every week, but Kincaid could, on any given week, be the No. 2 ahead of Gabriel Davis. In Buffalo's pass-heavy system, this has major upside. Even if he's the No. 3 option behind Davis on whatever week, the high volume will give him plenty of opportunity to make an impact.

 

Don't Shy Away From Taysom Hill

Yes, the number of routes Hill is running and the number of targets he's earned has decreased since Juwan Johnson returned. In Weeks 6-7, his route participation rate was 69 percent, and in Weeks 8-9, it dropped to 37 percent. Despite this, he still managed to earn five targets and catch four of them for 13 yards and a touchdown in Week 9. More importantly, however, over the past two weeks, he's averaging 10 carries and 57.5 rushing yards per game. It's clear that the coaches in New Orleans want to keep Hill involved. In fact, this past weekend Hill actually finished with more carries and rushing yards than Alvin Kamara. On top of earning five targets and getting 11 carries this past weekend, he also completed his lone pass attempt for a touchdown. He literally can do it all.

Over the past two weeks, despite Johnson returning to the lineup, Hill has continued to score a ton of fantasy points. While it's clear the lack of a true receiving role could lead to some poor weekly outputs, his role inside the red zone and his jack-of-all-trades ability in the New Orleans offense is going to give him high weekly upside.

With some tight ends, we'd prefer their respective team to be in a shoot-out or trailing on the scoreboard, thus increasing the team's passing volume. With Hill, however, we should feel more confident starting him in games where the Saints are favored. This will likely increase his potential for a rushing touchdown. His Week 10 matchup is just that kind of matchup. The Saints will face off against the Vikings, who are struggling with significant injuries on the offensive side of the ball. He's a top-10 play for me this weekend.

 

The Ups and Downs of Michael Mayer

Mayer's Week 6 performance of six targets, five receptions, and 75 yards seems like a lifetime ago. He had a 66.6 percent route participation rate that week, which was a significant upgrade from his Weeks 1-5 rate of just 37 percent. The arrow appeared to be pointing upwards. However, since that game, very little has gone to plan for Mayer and his fantasy managers. Most were expecting his role would only expand from there. Certainly, that would have made sense given the production and effectiveness he displayed.

Unfortunately, that hasn't been the case. The very next week, his route participation dropped down to 54.3 percent. There was some optimism that this was due to the Raiders being blown out and several starters sitting in the fourth quarter. That seemed to be proven when his route participation climbed back up to 82 percent in Week 8. After that game, the Raiders fired Josh McDaniels and put Antonio Pierce in place as their interim head coach.

Timeframe Route Participation Routes Run Targets
Target Per Route Run
Week 5 45.7% 16 3 18.75%
Week 6 66.6% 22 6 27.27%
Week 7 54.3% 25 4 16.00%
Week 8 82.1% 23 2 8.70%
Week 9 60.0% 15 2 13.33%

In Week 9, his route participation dropped down to 60 percent. That was especially concerning considering the change in coaching staff. Luckily, his snap share remained incredibly high. In Weeks 8 and 9, he played over 91 percent of the snaps. However, Austin Hooper cut into his total number of routes run this past weekend. He has just eight targets, five receptions, and 43 yards in the past three weeks combined. In Week 9, he finished with just two targets, two receptions, and 11 yards. It's clear that Mayer's role may not be consistent week to week. While fantasy managers may be able to count on Mayer playing a high number of snaps, there's no guarantee or assurance he's going to be involved in the passing game and running routes.

Due to this unknown, Mayer can be cut if need be. His talent profile of being a high second-round pick and his insane collegiate production give him perceived upside, but until his role changes, there's virtually no chance he hits that ceiling. The quarterback change to rookie Aidan O'Connell adds another unfortunate wrinkle to his fantasy football value. Not to mention, he's competing for targets with one elite receiver in Davante Adams and another very good one in Jakobi Meyers. The reality is, that a rookie quarterback is not going to support three fantasy-relevant pass-catchers, especially one whose route participation rate can fluctuate so much from week to week.

 

Chargers Tight End Duo from Week 9 Without Mike Williams and Joshua Palmer

Several fantasy managers ended up streaming Gerald Everett and Donald Parham Jr. this past weekend with receivers, Williams and Palmer, both being on IR. Rookie receiver, Quentin Johnston has been a massive disappointment thus far, which has left Justin Herbert having just one dependable pass-catcher, Keenan Allen. In that sense, there seemed to be plenty of opportunity for Everett and/or Parham to make an impact. In theory, the thought process wasn't wrong, but the results most certainly were bad.

Player Snap Share Route Participation Routes Run Targets Target Share
G, Everett 56% 59% 22 2 7.7%
D, Parham 54% 41% 15 2 7.7%

It wasn't just that Everett and Parham combined for four targets, two receptions, and 18 yards. Parham had two targets but was otherwise skunked. All of those receptions and yards went to Everett. The production could be excused due to a tough matchup and because sometimes tight ends flop. It's the nature of the position. Fantasy managers could forgive that. The bigger problem was the role and opportunity that both players received.

Neither player had a route participation rate over 60 percent. Neither player had a target share over 8.0 percent either. Neither player played more than 60 percent of the snaps. If there was any hope that the injuries at receiver would result in a bigger role for these two tight ends, it didn't play out that way in Week 9. Both of these players, due to last week's utilization, are not trustable in Week 10, despite it being a positive matchup with the Detroit Lions. It's expected to be a shoot-out and has one of the highest over/under's of this week's games and the Lions are allowing the ninth-most fantasy points to tight ends. That's the good news and it would have made either player a worthy start if their roles weren't so bad against the Jets. Until we see a change in how this offense is going to utilize their tight ends, both players can remain on the waiver wire.

 

For What It's Worth...

With Darren Waller on IR, the assumption was that second-year tight end, Daniel Bellinger, would walk into his previously held role. Bellinger showed some potential last year as a rookie, finishing with 35 targets, 30 receptions, 268 yards, and two touchdowns in 12 games. As far as rookie tight ends go, it wasn't bad. Last year, however, the Giants' offense was at least capable. Daniel Jones was playing safe, smart, and solid football. The Giants' offense finished roughly middle of the pack, ranking 15th in total yards and 18th in points. Right now, Jones is on IR and done for the year. Backup Tyrod Taylor is currently on IR and head coach Brian Daboll was uncertain if he'll return this year. Not only that, but the Giants' offense is a mess. They're 32nd in both yards and points. However, at least Bellinger has a stranglehold on a very good tight end role.

Snap Share Route Participation Routes Run Targets Target Share
D, Bellinger 86% 76% 32 3 10.7%

Bellinger had a fantastic role in Week 9. His snap share and his route participation were fantastic. The problem - and it's a big one - is going to come from the quarterback play and the general ineffectiveness of the team's offense. Right now, Bellinger isn't anything more than a desperation shot in the dark. Fantasy managers will need to decide, if they're in that spot, if they want someone like Bellinger who is playing a lot and running a lot of routes, or someone like Gerald Everett who has a much better chance at falling into the end zone. To be clear, neither option is good.

 

A Third Buccaneer Emerging?

Cade Otton put together a pretty solid rookie season. He finished with 65 targets, 42 receptions, 391 yards, and two touchdowns as a third-round rookie. He was in a very opportunistic situation as Tampa, with Tom Brady at quarterback, was the league's most pass-heavy team in the NFL by a long shot. That volume allowed him to earn 65 targets despite just a 9.5% target share. Otton didn't do anything spectacular as a rookie. There weren't any stats that stood out. For the most part, the same has been true this season. His 0.92-yard-per-route run average is actually down from his 0.95 mark as a rookie and both marks finished outside the top 25. However, the past three weeks Otton has been much better.

Timeframe Target Per Route Run Target Share Targets Per Game Receptions Per Game Yards Per Game
Weeks 1-6 11.3% 10.4% 3.4 0.0 20.8
Weeks 7-9 19.1% 18.4% 7.0 0.1 46.6

You can see from the table above that Otton has been getting much more involved in the offense. His target per route run rate and his target share have both increased by almost eight percent. Unfortunately, that doesn't correlate with a change in his utilization. His snap share and route participation rate are both elite and are in the top five among tight ends. I'd be more optimistic that this recent hot streak was here to stay if it also corresponded with a change in his snap share or route participation rate. At least then we could point to a reason for the increased production and volume. Since we don't have that, we can't easily explain the increased production we've seen in the last three weeks other than, sometimes hot streaks happen.

Therefore, we should be very skeptical of it. Tampa Bay ranks about the middle of the pack in most passing statistics. They're 14th in pass attempts, 15th in passing yards, and 12th in passing touchdowns. When we're looking for a starting tight end in fantasy football, we're looking for a 75% or higher route participation rate and a clear pathway to being the No. 2 target in their respective offense. If they're going to get by as a third option, they need elite passing volume and efficiency, and Tampa Bay doesn't offer that. With star receivers Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, Otton is always going to be the third wheel and even getting locked in as the team's No. 3 option is no guarantee. Running back Rachaad White is 10th in targets and second in receptions among running backs this season. In fact, despite Otton's recent surge he has just four more targets than White, but still trails White in both receptions and yards.

While he's averaging 11.2 half-PPR PPG from Weeks 7-9, he still shouldn't be viewed as anything more than a potential streamer if he has a good matchup. All this recent three-week streak really did is move him from completely unusable in all situations to being a potential streamer in a good matchup. Fantasy managers should be skeptical about using him this weekend with a very tough matchup against the Titans. They've allowed the fourth-fewest points to opposing tight ends this season.

 

Week 10 Tight End Rankings

Rank Player Half-PPR PPG Opponent Fantasy Points Allowed to TEs
Team Implied Point Total
1 Sam LaPorta 11.1 @ Chargers 11.2 (9) 25.50
2 Dalton Kincaid 7.2 vs Broncos 12.5 (3) 27.25
3 Mark Andrews 13.0 vs Browns 4.6 (32) 21.75
4 T.J. Hockenson 11.2 vs Saints 8.9 (20) 19.5
5 Evan Engram 8.4 vs 49ers 6.6 (27) 21.25
6 Trey McBride 5.4 vs Falcons 10.3 (15) 20.75
7 Dalton Schultz 9.2 @ Bengals 12.6 (2) 20.75
8 Taysom Hill 9.0 @ Vikings 10.4 (13) 22.00
9 Jake Ferguson 8.4 vs Giants 6.6 (27) 27.50
10 George Kittle 9.8 @ Jaguars 11.8 (6) 24.25
11 Cole Kmet 9.8 vs Panthers 8.0 (22) 21.50
12 Kyle Pitts 6.7 @ Cardinals 7.1 (26) 27.75
13 Logan Thomas 8.0 @ Seahawks 9.3 (18) 20.00
14 Hunter Henry 6.6 vs Colts 11.8 (6) 21.00
15 David Njoku 7.2 @ Ravens 6.2 (31) 15.75
16 Luke Musgrave 5.6 @ Steelers 6.4 (30) 17.75
17 Cade Otton 7.1 vs Titans 6.5 (29) 20.00
18 Tyler Conklin 5.3 @ Raiders 8.9 (2) 18.50
19 Jonnu Smith 7.7 @ Cardinals 7.1 (26) 21.75
20 Daniel Bellinger 1.1 @ Cowboys 9.5 (17) 11.00
21 Gerald Everett 5.7 vs Lions 11.2 (9) 24.25

 



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Tyreek Hill - Fantasy Football Rankings, NFL Injury News, DFS Lineup Picks

Three Aging Fantasy Football Players To Sell In Dynasty Leagues

It's hard to always know when to sell off your aging fantasy football players. Often, it's also difficult to accept that it's better to move on from a player when he's coming off a productive season and still has a lot left in the tank. But I believe it's better to be a year early […]


J.J. McCarthy - Fantasy Football Rankings, NFL Draft Sleepers

Five Fantasy Football Superflex Quarterback Breakouts, Draft Targets (2025)

If you’ve ever played in a Superflex fantasy football league, then you know how important quarterbacks are in this format. The ability to start multiple stud quarterbacks can carry you to a Superflex title. Unfortunately, finding two such players isn’t so easy. All the top signal-callers come off draft boards first, and that makes it […]


Omarion Hampton - College Football Rankings, NCAA CFB DFS Lineup Picks - NFL Draft

Ideal Landing Spots For The Top 12 Fantasy Football Rookies - 2025 NFL Draft

Then, the NFL Draft continues to inch closer and closer. This is a very interesting class, with a handful of players who could be stars in the NFL and reshape fantasy football leagues going forward. Here are the ideal landing spots for the top 12 fantasy football rookies. These picks exist in conversation with each […]


Jalen Coker - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, Waiver Wire Pickups

Eight Best Ball Late Round Value Fantasy Football Players To Target For 2025

Fantasy football is the most popular game in all of sports. It has gone from a paper-and-pen game to a multi-million dollar-a-year one. While redraft leagues are the most popular form of fantasy football, best ball leagues are quickly gaining steam. The best part of best ball leagues is the ability to draft thousands of […]


Abdul Carter - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

2025 NFL Draft Rankings: Top 10 Fantasy Football Edge Rusher Prospects

Edge rusher is the most important, most coveted, and most highly-paid position on defense in the NFL. It stands to reason that the most important position in the entire game being quarterback, and by a wide margin, means the most important position on defense are the players that are tasked with disrupting opposing QBs as […]


Brock Purdy - Fantasy Football Rankings, NFL Injury News, DFS Picks

Brock Purdy Dynasty Fantasy Football Outlook and Trade Value

Despite becoming the all-time leading passer for the Iowa State Cyclones, Brock Purdy wasn't a highly touted prospect due to his perceived lack of athleticism. The 49ers picked him with the final pick of the 2022 NFL Draft, but Mr. Irrelevant quickly proved everyone wrong. In his first two years, he started in back-to-back NFC […]


Michael Florio's Football Show - Podcast RotoBaller Network

Florio's Football Show: Scouting NFL Draft Prospects!

Michael F Florio goes over some of the top prospects from this years NFL Draft. Florio talks about what he looks for when watching prospect tape and explains what traits translate best to the NFL level. Be sure to also tune into RotoBaller Radio on SiriusXM (SiriusXM channel 87) on Sundays from 6-7 am. You can […]


Najee Harris - Fantasy Football Rankings, NFL Injury News, DFS Lineup Picks

Dynasty Fantasy Football Buy or Sell: Najee Harris, Rico Dowdle, Jordan Mason

One year ago, we discussed the futures of Josh Jacobs, Derrick Henry, Saquon Barkley, and Aaron Jones as those free agents found new homes. This year's headliners are Najee Harris, Rico Dowdle, and Jordan Mason. Not quite the same. Still, with every transaction come implications for dynasty fantasy football rosters across the globe. Below, we […]


Romeo Doubs - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

Early 2025 Fantasy Football Sleepers: Undervalued NFC Draft Targets

While the 2025 fantasy football redraft season is still several months away, there is no such thing as being too prepared for your fantasy draft. Fantasy football is year-round, even for those who only play in redraft leagues. The landscape of fantasy football will change between today and the start of redraft season, with the […]


Detroit Lions Defense, Aidan Hutchinson - Fantasy Football DST Rankings, Streamers, IDP Sleepers

2025 Fantasy Football IDP Sleepers: Five Draft Targets

It's notably difficult to identify sleepers in fantasy football IDP leagues. The skill of the players in question is very important, but situation also plays a large factor, as does a recent history of injuries. Rather than bucketing them into groups, it's better to analyze each one individually, look at where they are in terms […]


Ashton Jeanty - College Football Rankings, NCAA CFB DFS Lineup Picks

Ashton Jeanty's Top Potential Landing Spots For 2025: Fantasy Football NFL Draft Outlook

Boise State running back Ashton Jeanty will enter the 2025 NFL Draft as one of the best prospects in the class. Jeanty just ran for 2,601 yards and 29 touchdowns across 14 games this past college season. Those 2,601 rush yards were the second-most of all-time in FBS history, only behind Barry Sanders's 2,628 rush yards […]


Bhaysul Tuten - NFL Draft Prospects, Rookie Rankings

2025 Fantasy Football Rookie Mock Draft: 12-Team, Single QB

The 2025 NFL Combine has now been completed, so it's worth doing another mock draft to see where everyone stands after the league's pre-draft testing event. Overall, there were a few surprises, but the order of many players will remain the same. The mental domain of the original rankings, which have been fairly set in […]


Rashid Shaheed - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

2025 Fantasy Football Sleepers: Later-Career Breakout Candidates

Typically, most NFL players break out in the early parts of their careers. Between the ages of 20 and 25 is when you expect to see the majority of players have their first big season. Some waste no time and put together excellent years while they're rookies, while some need more time to develop. These […]