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John Johnson looks at fantasy football rookie sleepers, risers, and busts for Week 3 of 2024. Which NFL rookies from 2024 could be fantasy football league winners?
Every season, rookies provide some of the highest league-winning value (upside vs. cost) at the running back, quarterback, wide receiver, and tight-end positions. Without fail, players like Rams WR Puka Nacua, Rams RB Kyren Williams, and Lions TE Sam LaPorta put up monster numbers in their freshman seasons.
There are also plenty of players, like Christian Watson in 2022, who don't break out until later in the season, and identifying them before they break out can be crucial to winning your league. Rookies aren't to be ignored, and writing them off every season can rob your team of a huge advantage.
The buy window closes fast on some of these players, and even if you have to stash them on your bench for a significant portion of the season when they break out, they can be difference-makers. It can be frustrating, but patience is required. Let's dive into the Rookie Report in search of league winners.
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What Makes a League Winner?
As was the case last week and will be forever more, rookies who become league winners are typically players who smash their ADPs, so handily they would've been worth fantasy draft picks multiple rounds higher. Take Cincinnati Bengals wide receiver Ja'Marr Chase, for example.
Despite being a top-5 NFL Draft pick, Chase was universally drafted in the middle-to-late rounds of fantasy drafts. He immediately crushed his ADP, finishing as the WR5 overall. Gems like Chase cover for your draft mistakes. It became suddenly okay to bust in the early rounds if you had someone like Chase.
Not all rookies break out as quickly as Chase, though, and even when they do, the buy window doesn't slam shut immediately. Players like Chase and Nacua could be traded for after Week 1 and not cost a ton of assets. The key is timing and being willing to take a chance on players who show promise. So, who should you buy now?
Buy Now: Brian Thomas Jr.
Jacksonville Jaguars wide receiver Brian Thomas Jr. has shown absurd potential through his first two weeks. Though he's only been targeted four times in each contest, he's made jaw-dropping explosive plays against opposing teams.
Brian Thomas Jr tape from Week 2
lotta yards left on the field. blame goes partly to him, partly to TL, mostly to OL
that said, hard not to get excited about the 21yo rookie. needs way more targets going forward pic.twitter.com/N8v8b2zgEV
— Gus Logue (@gus_logue) September 17, 2024
Thomas was widely viewed as a raw, unpolished prospect whose one-dimensionality (speed) was his only major asset and who would need much time to develop. This is not the case. Thomas has shown excellent route running, blinding quickness on his releases, and "near-uncoverability" that NFL offenses salivate for.
Thomas now has multiple games where offensive miscues and bad luck cost him huge games. Had Dolphins cornerback Jalen Ramsey not fouled Thomas on a potential 40+ yard touchdown in Week 1, the buy-low window on Thomas would have been slammed shut. Same case if Trevor Lawrence or the Jags OL had played better.
At the 0:12 second mark of the video, you can see Thomas open for a six-yard touchdown, but Lawrence rolls out and doesn't see him. At 1:30, you can see Thomas burn Browns CB Martin Emerson Jr. for what could have reasonably been a 99-yard (!!!!!) touchdown. Thomas was close to having a ridiculous day.
“That’s how you run a post” 🗣️
Trevor Lawrence has loved what Brian Thomas Jr. can do 😤
🎥: @Jaguars https://t.co/2O8y7dEbLN pic.twitter.com/f1B9aNs2YT
— The 33rd Team (@The33rdTeamFB) September 18, 2024
Thomas embarrassed Browns three-time Pro Bowl CB Denzel Ward on a post route in the above play, hauling in the pass for 66 yards. Thomas can utilize his incredible athletic profile (4.33 40-yard dash at 6-foot-3) and ridiculous length to make massive plays.
Lawrence will continue to build chemistry with Thomas. The offensive coaching staff will draw up more plays for him. At his current price, you are making a serious mistake not at least attempting to get him. He's a ticking time bomb waiting to explode for a 20+ point performance and can be acquired for cheap.
Go trade for Thomas right now if you can get his manager to accept a reasonable offer, and don't be afraid to slightly overpay at his current price.
Buy Now: Xavier Worthy
After a huge Week 1, Kansas City Chiefs wide receiver Xavier Worthy disappointed in a big way, scoring just 4.20 PPR fantasy points after a 20+ point game in Week 1. That makes a great time to buy Worthy. He was likely drafted in the mid-to-late rounds of your fantasy drafts.
Worthy, like fellow Chiefs WR Rashee Rice last year, joined a complicated offense, and head coach Andy Reid prefers to work his rookies in slowly. There's not much urgency to get him involved heavily early, as the Chiefs are handling their opponents and winning games.
If Xavier Worthy went off everybody would have come back to this tweet to clown him so instead let’s come back and say Worthy had 2 catches for 17 yards and Cam Taylor-Britt did this
pic.twitter.com/YNOX4Yg8mf https://t.co/ofxPgCpy5v— Blake Krass (@BlakeyLocks) September 16, 2024
Worthy would've had a much bigger play if Bengals CB Cam Taylor-Britt hadn't made this monster interception. And Worthy will get more work as the season progresses. He should have a huge second half of the season, just like Rice did last year, and be worth every penny you spend acquiring him.
Managers tend to overreact to production in the first few weeks of the season because there's not as much information to go off of, and it feels bad to start a player you thought would produce well only to see them score under five PPR points.
Buy Now: Jonathon Brooks
There's not a whole lot to say about Brooks that wasn't covered in last week's column, except that Panthers QB Bryce Young has been benched after a putrid start to the season. New starting QB Andy Dalton is 36 years old, and while he's an upgrade, his arm strength has likely faded far from his prime.
Jonathon Brooks should make his NFL debut over the next month.
Andy Dalton will help to make sure his rookie season is special.
— Jesse Morse, MD (@DrJesseMorse) September 17, 2024
The Panthers aren't who fantasy managers are focusing on right now, so Brooks can likely be obtained without giving up too much. Dalton will run a much more efficient offense than Young, and Brooks will benefit massively. As mentioned in last week's column, Brooks is likely to be the backbone of this offense when fully healthy.
Given the proliferation of the committee approach toward backfields and Brooks' ability to be a legitimate every-down back, he's a lottery ticket with incredible upside. He had a clean ACL tear, so he's unlikely to have complications, and in PPR, even if he's 80%, he could be dynamite.
A realistic average stat line for Brooks, running behind an improved Panthers offensive line, is in the realm of 16 carries for 90 yards and six catches for 60 yards. That's 21.00 PPR fantasy points. Those are league-winning numbers for a mid-to-late-round fantasy draft pick. Don't pass this opportunity up.
Too Late (Sort Of): Marvin Harrison Jr.
While the buy window has slammed shut for Marvin Harrison Jr., and regrettably, last week's column expressed disappointment in his performance, his draft capital was so high that it would've been difficult to acquire him anyway. Harrison showed how quickly things can change for rookies, though.
That's an incredibly important point. People can become discouraged over terrible or mediocre performances, and going against the grain of the "bust" narrative can pay big dividends. Managers who aggressively moved to acquire Harrison are immediately in a much better position to win their leagues.
So What Should I Do If I Want To Win My League?
Do not pass up on the "Buy Now" players. Even if you're only able to acquire one of them, they should pay off massively if they're able to stay healthy and their situations remain good. It can be difficult to work out trades and even to give up decent players for them, but you're trading known "okayish" players for the unknown.
A five-year veteran having a Cinderella season is much less likely than a rookie being underestimated in their first year and becoming a star. How many people thought Tank Dell would play like he did in 2023? It's worth it to take the gamble.
Considering that rookies break out in a big way every year, leaning into that unknown is important. Don't miss out.
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