RADIO
Week 7 is officially in the books and we're now over a third of the way through the 2022 season. We now have a lot of good information we can use to help make decisions as we head into Week 8 and beyond.
In this weekly column, we'll be looking at players whose arrows may be pointing up, and players whose arrows may be pointing down based on the previous week's games. We'll try not to overreact, but instead, use relevant data to make informed decisions about certain players.
Here are the key risers and fallers coming out of Week 7 of the NFL season.
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Week 8 Fantasy Football Risers
Gus Edwards, Baltimore Ravens
Make no mistake about it, the Baltimore Ravens WANT to run the football. In fact, in Gus Bus' first game action since 2020, he handled 50% of the RB rush attempts (16). Four of those carries came inside the red zone. He totaled 66 yards and two scores on his 16 carries. In comparison, Kenyan Drake toted the rock 11 times for just five total yards.
For all intents and purposes, Edwards was being "eased" in after recovering from major knee surgery in 2021. He played just 36% of the snaps, but his workload on those snaps is a major positive for his future outlook. Gus Bus looked like by far the best runner on this team. With J.K. Dobbins expected to miss at least 4-6 weeks of action, Edwards should continue to dominate the workload moving forward.
He won't run a ton of routes or catch a ton of passes but expect Edwards to be busy in the ground game. The Ravens ran the ball 73.3% of the time in Week 7. And they have some nice matchups on the horizon for the ground attack. Up next is the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Week 8, who were just gashed by Chuba Hubbard and D'Onta Foreman for 181 yards on the ground.
Expect close to 20 carries per game with multiple opportunities to find the endzone on a weekly basis for Gus Edwards.
DeAndre Hopkins, Arizona Cardinals
D Hop didn't miss a beat coming off his six-game suspension. He played on 92% of the snaps and was targeted a team-high 14 times. He caught 10 balls for 103 yards. His 14 targets were good for a 48.3% target share.
And at least for the next 3-5 weeks, Hopkins won't have to contend with Marquise Brown for a piece of the pie, as Hollywood was placed on IR with a foot injury. Hopkins will remain Kyler Murray's number one target at least through their Week 13 Bye. The Cardinals also have five favorable matchups for Murray and the passing attack in the next five weeks (Minnesota, Seattle, LA Rams, San Francisco, and LA Chargers).
Don't be surprised if and when Hopkins cements himself as a weekly top-15 option for at least the next month of the season.
Tyler Lockett, Seattle Seahawks
DK Metcalf suffered a knee injury in Week 7 and has been all but ruled out for Week 8, even though Pete Carroll refuses to be anything but optimistic on the matter. Nevertheless, Lockett is now the de facto number-one wide receiver in this high-octane Seahawks offense.
For the season, Lockett has posted a 25.4% target share and a 25.1% target rate. Both of these opportunity metrics are career highs for the 30-year-old. In Week 7, with Metcalf out for most of the game, he posted a 30.8% target share and 30.8% target rate. We could see a similar opportunity share for Lockett for as long as Metcalf is out.
Seattle, much like Arizona, has a favorable schedule for the next three weeks, with matchups against the Giants, Cardinals, and Buccaneers. Much like Hopkins without Marquise Brown, consider Lockett a top-15 option for as long as Metcalf remains on the sidelines with the knee injury.
Tony Pollard, Dallas Cowboys
Are we finally seeing a changing of the guard in the Dallas backfield?
In Week 7, for the first time all season, Tony Pollard played on a higher percentage of the snaps (65%) than Ezekiel Elliott (49%). Elliott had one more opportunity (15) than Pollard (14), but for once it was Pollard who was on the field more.
Pollard turned his 14 opportunities into 109 total yards, while Zeke turns his 15 opportunities into just 57 yards. However, it was Zeke that found the end zone twice on four red zone carries. But don't let that cloud your mind from the fact that Pollard ALSO had four red zone carries against the Lions in Week 7.
And with how good he's been all season, it's going to be tough to keep Tony Pollard on the sidelines.
Other Risers: Rachaad White, D.J. Moore, Parris Campbell, Khalil Herbert, Harrison Bryant
Week 8 Fantasy Football Fallers
Leonard Fournette, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
After playing on 82% of the snaps and handling 77% of the RB opportunities in Week 6, Fournette played on just 60% of the snaps in Week 7 and handled just 57.9% of the RB opportunities in Week 7. Rookie Rachaad White played his season-high in carries with six and played on a season-high 43% of the snaps.
After the brutal loss to the Panthers, Bucs head coach Todd Bowles did not seem pleased with some of the veterans on the team. We're going to safely assume he's not talking about Tom Brady, Mike Evans, or Chris Godwin here:
And take a look at how brutal Fournette has been running the football this season:
The Bucs play Thursday night on a short week vs. the Ravens, and what better time to get an explosive playmaker such as Rachaad White more involved in the game plan? Be warned the almost 28-year-old Fournette could be losing more and more work each and every week to the rookie.
Michael Gallup, Dallas Cowboys
Yes, he's returning from an ACL tear, so maybe we should give him a bit more time. But maybe he's just not going to ever be "right" this season.
Through four games, Gallup is averaging just 4.3 targets per game. He has yet to eclipse four catches or 45 yards in any one game this season. His usage was trending up after Week 6 when he saw seven targets on a 76% snap share. But then in Week 7, Gallup was outplayed by Noah Brown. On the season, Brown has a 21.5% target rate, while Gallup has just a 19.8% target rate.
To make matters worse for Gallup, the Cowboys' defense is allowing just 14.9 points per game, second least in the NFL only to the Buffalo Bills. That's led to Dallas attempting just 30 passes per game. Last season, the Cowboys averaged 38.4 pass attempts per game.
Without that kind of volume, it's going to be hard for a guy like Gallup, with a 19.8% target rate, to see enough targets to warrant being started on a weekly basis.
Deebo Samuel, San Francisco 49ers
This one hurts, it really does. Deebo is one of the most electric players in the league. From Weeks 1-6, he averaged 15.2 PPR points on nearly 12 opportunities per game. In Week 7, he scored single-digit points for the first time all season in Christian McCaffrey's first game suiting up for the Niners. He also only carried the ball once, a season-low for him.
And CMC was limited in Week 6, playing on just 28% of the snaps. Despite that, he still managed to get 10 opportunities (eight carries and two targets). As McCaffrey gets more comfortable with the playbook, he'll be a huge x-factor for the 49ers. This will inevitably lead to fewer opportunities for a guy like Samuel, who is at his best when being utilized in a variety of ways.
This isn't to say Samuel won't still be a very good asset for the 49ers, but his fantasy value is sure to take a hit with one of the best running backs in football now playing alongside him.
Drake London, Atlanta Falcons
There's nothing anyone can do to help Drake London or Kyle Pitts. Arthur Smith is just going to continue to establish the run. It doesn't matter what the situation is. In Week 7, the Falcons found themselves in a huge deficit and STILL just threw the ball just 13 times (31% of the time).
London finished this game with just one catch for nine yards on one target. After a hot start, London is averaging just 2.6 receptions for 31 yards on five targets in his last five games. And if Arthur Smith is unwilling to move away from the run in a 35-17 loss, imagine what he'll do when the Falcons find success running the football.
Upcoming are six really sweet matchups for the Falcons' ground attack. They've got the Panthers twice, the Chargers, the Bears, the Commanders, and the Steelers before their Week 14 Bye. At some point soon, they'll also get Cordarrelle Patterson back as well, which could throw another wrench in London's opportunity share.
Until Smith is gone, this isn't going to bode well for London or his running mate Kyle Pitts.
Other Fallers: Rashod Bateman, Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Aaron Rodgers, A.J. Dillon, Damien Harris
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