RADIO
Week 6 is officially in the books and we're now over a third of the way through the 2022 season. We now have a lot of good information we can use to help make decisions as we head into Week 7 and beyond.
In this weekly column, we'll be looking at players whose arrows may be pointing up, and players whose arrows may be pointing down based on the previous week's games. We'll try not to overreact, but instead, use relevant data to make informed decisions about certain players.
Here are the key risers and fallers coming out of Week 6 of the NFL season.
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Week 7 Fantasy Football Risers
Rondale Moore, Arizona Cardinals
Moore saw double-digit targets in Week 6 for just the second time in his career. He's now averaging nine targets per game over his last two games.
Per PlayerProfiler, he's currently sporting a target share and target rate of 21.9% with a route participation rate of 94.6%. Compare that to his rookie season, when he had a target share of just 14.3%. However, Moore was targeted on 26.2% of his routes as a rookie despite the mere 52.8% route participation rate. He commands targets and is now playing a full-time role in the slot.
Moore will continue to play in the slot, especially with the Cardinals trading for Robbie Anderson and getting DeAndre Hopkins back from a six-game suspension. Anderson has played just 10% of his snaps from the slot this season. He'll step into the "Marquise Brown" role (while Hollywood is out six weeks with a foot injury) opposite Hopkins with Moore mostly in the slot.
Rondale is an especially attractive option in PPR formats due to his relatively low average depth of target, but high target volume. The Cardinals are also second in the league in pass attempts per game (42.7) and fourth in plays per game (70.5) through the first six weeks of the season. He also doesn't have to play alongside Hollywood for the foreseeable future, a guy who earned a 26.3% target share this season.
It's Rondale Moore's time to shine in Arizona.
Wan'Dale Robinson, New York Giants
From Rondale to Wan'Dale, it was a good week to be a "dale." Wan'Dale saw action in Week 6 for the first time since injuring his knee in Week 1. While he only played on 23% of the snaps, he finished the game with three catches for 37 yards and a touchdown on four targets. He did that on just 10 routes run. On the season, Robinson now has five targets on just 14 routes run, good for a 35.7% target rate.
Now, don't forget Robinson was drafted early in the second round by Brian Daboll and this new coaching regime in New York. They prioritized a guy with his school set and it's clear they plan to get the ball into his hands when healthy based on his early utilization.
With Kadarius Toney and Kenny Golladay both hurting and out for the foreseeable future, the rookie has a golden opportunity to seize a massive workload for the Giants almost immediately. After all, he's competing with guys like David Sills V., Marcus Johnson, Richie James Jr., and Darius Slayton for targets.
And more targets will be coming his way, and soon.
Greg Dulcich, Denver Broncos
For those looking for a startable fantasy football tight end, look no further than Broncos rookie Greg Dulcich. Week 6 was his first regular season game action, and he was immediately thrust into a very nice role. Take a look at his utilization, courtesy of the great Dwain McFarland.
Albert Okwuegbunam was a healthy inactive in this game, so his job is all but finished in Denver. It's now the Greg Dulchich show, and the utilization in his first career game should be considered extremely positive for his future value.
The target share (12%) and target rate (15%) weren't quite where we want them to be, but remember it was his first NFL game action. It's key to look at the underlying utilization to project his role moving forward.
If you're in need of a tight end moving forward, Dulcich should be considered more than just a bye week fill-in.
Chris Godwin, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
After playing on just 52% of the snaps in Week 5, Godwin was back up to an 89% snap share in Week 6. He turned that into six catches for 95 yards on a season-high 12 targets. It's probably now safe to say he's officially "back" from the torn ACL suffered late last season.
After three games of fewer than 55 air yards per game, Godwin totaled 135 air yards in Week 6 against the Steelers. That was more than any one game last season. His target share is down a bit from last season (18.7% vs. 21.3%), but that can be chalked up to not playing full games in Weeks 1 and 5.
Godwin's target rate of 27% this season is more indicative of his role in the offense. As long as his route participation and snap share is close to 90%, Godwin should continue to see double-digit targets on a pretty regular basis as the season progresses.
Other Risers: Robert Tonyan, Dalvin Cook, Romeo Doubs, Alec Pierce
Week 7 Fantasy Football Fallers
J.K. Dobbins, Baltimore Ravens
Dobbins has now played in four games for the Ravens this season. He has yet to eclipse a 50% snap share, and in Week 6, it was more of the same. However, this time, Dobbins was held out of the second half specifically because his knee tightened up on him.
Apparently, this is very common in players returning from major knee surgery. Even still, it's concerning nonetheless for Dobbins this season, as we should realistically expect some sort of reduced workload moving forward.
It also doesn't help that there's a healthy Kenyan Drake in the fold, who looked to have some juice in Dobbins' second-half absence against the Giants. With Gus Edwards and Justice Hill also close to making their returns, it's just not advised to bank on Dobbins right now. But there's hope for him in dynasty leagues...
Kyle Pitts, Atlanta Falcons
Adding insult to injury with this one as Pitts found the end zone for the very first time in Week 6, yet still finds himself as a "Faller" heading into Week 7. Yes, he caught a touchdown, but Pitts had just three catches for 19 yards on three targets against the 49ers. He played on just 57% of the snaps in his first game back from the hamstring injury.
It's possible the Falcons were limiting his reps, but we've seen this before with Pitts this season. This was his third game (out of five) seeing four or fewer targets, and his fourth game totaling fewer than 26 yards.
What's also concerning is that the Falcons are actually winning games with this ground-and-pound game plan in which Marcus Mariota throws the ball just 23 times per game. Pitts does have a 23.6% target share and 29.4% target rate, but those opportunity metrics don't matter if it's based on 17 routes run per game.
Per PlayerProfiler, Pitts' route participation rate has dropped from his rookie season (81.5%) to this season (75.9%). Unfortunately, five of the Falcons' next seven opponents have struggled this season, so we could see more of the same type of game plan from Arthur Smith going forward.
Diontae Johnson, Pittsburgh Steelers
It's been a tough season thus far for Diontae Johnson. The targets are still generally there (averaging 9.5 per game through six weeks), but the production hasn't matched. In fact, he's yet to find paydirt and George Pickens being the real deal opposite of Johnson hasn't helped his cause.
For the second time in three weeks, Diontae failed to catch more than five passes or eclipse 28 receiving yards. He's also seen single-digit targets in two of the last three weeks, something that never happened over a three-week stretch in 2021.
If you can believe it, this Steelers' offense looks almost more stagnant this season under Mitch Trubisky and Kenny Pickett than it did last season with Ben Roethlisberger. And it's hurt Diontae's fantasy value. Per PlayerProfiler, Johnson's expected fantasy points per game were 17.8 last season. Through six games this season, that number sits at just 15.2 per game. His yards per route run has also taken a nose dive, going from 1.95 a season ago to just 1.39 this season.
It's not likely (or advised) to necessarily bench Diontae Johnson, especially as bye weeks are upon us, but maybe temper expectations moving forward.
Jeff Wilson Jr., San Francisco 49ers
When the 49ers are cruising to victory, it's all good for Jeff Wilson Jr.'s workload. However, when they fall behind and are needing to play catch-up, it's a real dagger for his opportunity and thus fantasy value. In Week 6, he got just seven carries and saw one target (eight opportunities) in a 28-14 loss to the Falcons.
The 49ers face two more tough matchups in Week 7 and Week 8 against the Chiefs and Rams prior to their Week 9 bye. It's possible Jimmy Garoppolo is forced to throw it 35 or more times. This isn't what Kyle Shanahan wants to do, but it likely means less Jeff Wilson nonetheless. Through six games, Wilson has seen just 1.7 targets on 10 routes per game, so he's not heavily involved in the passing game.
Now add in another variable. Elijah Mitchell could very well return soon after the bye week, as he was set to miss two months with a knee injury he suffered in Week 1. If Mitchell is able to make a full recovery and return to a normal workload, that would likely spell the end for Jeff Wilson.
It's advisable to see what you can get in return for Wilson now before it's too late.
Other Fallers: Melvin Gordon III, Garrett Wilson, Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Michael Carter
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