RADIO
Top fantasy football risers and fallers heading into Week 4 of the 2023 NFL season. Adam Koffler identifies players at QB, RB, WR, and TE whose value for fantasy football is rising or falling.
Three weeks down, 14 to go. Week 3 is now officially in the books. We have a lot of good information we can use to help make decisions as we head into Week 4 and beyond.
In this weekly column, we'll be looking at fantasy football players whose arrows may be pointing up and players whose arrows may be pointing down based on the previous week's games. We'll try not to overreact, but instead use relevant data to make informed decisions about certain players.
Here are the key risers and fallers coming out of Week 3 of the 2023 NFL season.
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Week 4 Fantasy Football Risers
Tank Dell, Houston Texans
Last week we highlighted Dell's teammate, Nico Collins. This week, Tank gets a spot on the Risers list. He put up 145 yards and a touchdown on seven targets. He played just 61% of the snaps, but that was more a product of the game flow than anything else as the Texans dominated the Jaguars. Here's the touchdown:
Another extremely positive sign for Dell is the increase in first-read target share each week. Thanks to Jacob Gibbs for highlighting this stat.
The rookie now has touchdowns in back-to-back games and is playing with a very competent rookie quarterback in C.J. Stroud, who's been better than advertised. With an average of 40.3 pass attempts per game, there will be plenty of opportunities for the speedster Dell going forward.
De'Von Achane, Miami Dolphins
This one almost feels too obvious after Achane put up 51.3 PPR fantasy points in Week 3. He did so playing on just 41% of the snaps. Absolute insanity! With Salvon Ahmed inactive, Achane was given 18 rush attempts and four targets after getting just one carry and one target in Week 2. And boy did he make the most of his opportunities.
Raheem Mostert isn't going away though, but this is looking like a backfield split going forward, especially if that means the Dolphins can keep the 31-year-old healthy through a 17-game season. As a result, Achane is going to get his fair share of opportunities as the season rolls on. And if something ever happens to Mostert, we're talking about a guy with overall RB1 potential in this high-octane Miami offense.
Romeo Doubs, Green Bay Packers
Doubs was essentially a part-time player in Week 1 with a 48% snap share. In Week 2, it was Jayden Reed with a 32% target share. In Week 3, it was the Doubs show. He only caught five of his 12 targets, but he led Green Bay with a 28% target share. And his route participation has increased each of the first three weeks of the season.
And the kid made some incredible catches in Week 3, including this one along the sideline:
Christian Watson and his hamstring can't seem to get fully healthy through three weeks, and he's at risk of missing Thursday night's Week 4 game as well after logging a DNP on Monday this week. Until further notice, Doubs is very startable in fantasy football so long as he has a full-time role in this offense.
Adam Thielen, Carolina Panthers
We're turnin' back the clocks with this one! Thielen looked fantastic in Week 3 after a very solid Week 2. Through three weeks, he's the WR7 on the season. Bet you didn't see that coming. He led all Panther receivers with 14 targets (25% target share) against the Seahawks and he's now scored touchdowns in consecutive games.
No shade to Bryce Young, but the offense seemed to click a bit more with Andy Dalton under center. Dalton could play another game with Young still ailing. The next game just so happens to be against Thielen's former team, the Minnesota Vikings. With rookie Jonathan Mingo sustaining a concussion in Week 3, we should feel that much more confident plugging Thielen into our lineups in Week 4.
Other Risers: Alexander Mattison, James Conner, Quentin Johnston, Josh Palmer, Jordan Addison, C.J. Stroud
Week 4 Fantasy Football Fallers
Derrick Henry, Tennessee Titans
It's officially time to worry about King Henry. He's being completely phased out in negative game scripts, which led to him seeing just a 38% snap share in Week 3. That's his lowest snap share since 2018. He's now played under 50% of the snaps in two of three games to start the season. On the flip side, rookie Tyjae Spears is way more involved than anyone could have imagined. And for good reason, he looks really good.
Prior to this season, Henry's value was only a little "game-script dependent." This season, it's entirely game-script dependent, which makes him a very volatile fantasy asset. With tough matchups upcoming against the Bengals, Colts, and Ravens, there's at least some cause for concern regarding Henry's workload.
Brian Robinson Jr., Washington Commanders
Like Henry, Robinson fell victim to the game script in Week 3. With the Commanders trailing the Bills all game, Robinson got just 10 opportunities (all carries). He still rushed for 70 years, but he played just 37% of the snaps, while Antonio Gibson played 61% of the snaps.
Next up in Week 4 is a meeting with the Eagles, in Philadelphia. The Commanders are 8.5-point underdogs as of this article, so we are potentially looking at another 30-40% snap share for Robinson if the Commanders once again trail for a majority of the game.
He's currently the RB8 on the season, which could present a nice sell-high opportunity with two matchups against the Eagles and a matchup against the Falcons in the next five weeks.
Jahan Dotson, Washington Commanders
Dotson is getting the reps, he's just not getting targeted by Sam Howell. Through three games, he's averaged just 5.3 targets per game. He's yet to eclipse 40 receiving yards and hasn't scored a touchdown.
Last season, Dotson had a mini-breakout towards the end of the season. He was the WR20 between Weeks 13 and 18. However, prior to that, he averaged just 25.6 receiving yards per game. With Howell not taking a ton of deep shots early (just 6.78 yards per attempt), Dotson could continue to struggle as that's in his DNA. Last season, he averaged 8.6 yards per target (YPT), while this season he's sitting at just 5.2 YPT.
Unless Howell turns it around, the Dotson breakout could be put on hold until further notice.
Dalvin Cook, New York Jets
The Jets took a chance on Cook in the offseason in order to ease Breece Hall back into a "full" workload. That time has come, and it came in Week 3. Cook saw just a 25% snap share after playing 50% of the snaps in Week 1 and 36% of the snaps in Week 2. Meanwhile, Hall's snap share has increased in each game.
Not only that, but Cook isn't making the most of the opportunities he is given. Granted, it's tough with Zach Wilson at quarterback, but that's only the tip of the iceberg. Cook is averaging just 2.3 yards per carry and has just seven targets on the season. Unfortunately, he looks like a shell of himself and he's being phased out of the offense. In Week 3, he had played just one more snap than Michael Carter.
The numbers don't lie:
Other Fallers: DeAndre Hopkins, A.J. Dillon, Taysom Hill, Brandin Cooks, Samaje Perine
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