Fantasy Football Risers and Fallers - Week 3

September 23, 2020

Fantasy football risers and fallers heading into Week 3 of the NFL season. Jason Katz looks at players whose fantasy value has changed over the past week.

Whether due to their own play, the play of others, or injuries, players' stock increases and decreases on a weekly basis. Perhaps more than any other, the NFL is a league that experiences ups and downs at a rapid pace. With only 16 games, there’s little room for error and seemingly endless opportunities for improvement. The same goes for fantasy football; managing rosters effectively is key to winning that championship.

Throughout the season, players get hot and see an increased role while others struggle and fight to stay relevant. Experienced fantasy players know this happens every year. In this weekly column, we’ll showcase those who have taken important steps forward and those who have taken steps back.

These are the key risers and fallers heading into Week 3 of the NFL season. Dynasty owners, check out our separate Dynasty Risers/Fallers segment as well.

Week 3 Risers

Gardner Minshew (QB, JAX)

Two weeks into the 2020 season and Gardner Minshew has thrown three touchdown passes twice. Last week's game against the Titans is far more in line with what we should expect from the Jaguars. They have a bad defense that will force them into passing situations early and often. That's exactly what we saw with Minshew attempting 45 passes. Minshew has a real shot at attempting 600 passes this season and is quickly establishing himself as much more than a streamer. He might be an every week QB1.

Dalton Schultz (TE, DAL)

The reason Blake Jarwin was a popular breakout candidate was because he was expected to be the primary tight end and was also super athletic. Dalton Schultz is just a guy. Well, as it turns out, that might be enough in a Dak Prescott offense. With the Cowboys decimated on defense and incapable of stopping anyone, Prescott is going to be throwing a ton. There are evidently enough targets to go around for Amari Cooper, Michael Gallup, CeeDee Lamb, and Dalton Schultz. With a 90% catch rate and a very nice touchdown grab, Schultz is an immediate option at a weak position. He's at least a viable TE2.

Diontae Johnson (WR, PIT)

I'm not saying Diontae Johnson is better than JuJu Smith-Schuster (in both reality and fantasy), but I'm also not not saying that. Through two weeks, Johnson has seen a team high 23 targets despite completely faceplanting during the early portion of both his games. Johnson was a popular breakout candidate and one of my favorite mid to late single digit round targets. So far he's living up to the hype. He looks more WR2 than WR3 and, dare I say, WR1 is not impossible.

CeeDee Lamb (WR, DAL)

It took all of two weeks for CeeDee Lamb to become an every week fantasy starter. Those of you that drafted him may not need him to start, but he's already a viable WR3. Similar to what I said about Schultz above, the Cowboys just need to throw and throw and throw some more because of their awful defense. There are plenty of Dak Prescott targets to go around and due to the presence of Amari Cooper and Michael Gallup, Lamb is the one that often ends up with the mismatch. Lamb has seen 15 targets through two games. He's on pace for 120 targets. That volume for a very good prospect playing with a top five quarterback in a top five offense is a recipe for success.

Darrell Henderson (RB, LAR)

For over a year now, I've gone on and on about how Darrell Henderson has no value because the Rams hate him. Never once did I say Henderson was a bad player. The Rams still hate him, but last week, they had no choice but to give him the ball as both Cam Akers and Malcolm Brown went down with rib and finger injuries, respectively. Henderson touched the ball 14 times and racked up 121 yards with a score. I'm sure the Rams will bury him on the depth chart as soon as they can, but, for now, they may be left without a choice. Akers is going to miss at least a game or two and while Brown is likely to play this week after undergoing minor pinky surgery, he's a plodder that is not going to handle a full workload. There's opportunity for Henderson to possibly convince the Rams he's the best running back on the team.

The Replacements (RBs, Everywhere)

Normally I don't like to use injuries as a way to talk about risers, but there were so many in Week 2 that I would be remiss to ignore them.

Mike Davis handled every running back snap after Christian McCaffrey went down and was used just as much in the passing game. He's an every week RB2 while CMC is out with his high ankle sprain.

Dion Lewis handled every running back snap after Saquon Barkley tore his ACL. However, the Giants are going to activate Wayne Gallman this week and they may sign Devonta Freeman. Lewis obviously has more value than he previously did, but this is going to be a timeshare and one you want no part of.

Jerick McKinnon was somehow the last running back standing for the 49ers last week. Raheem Mostert sprained his MCL and Tevin Coleman also has a knee injury. Both are not playing this week, leaving McKinnon as the primary back. He will share time with Jeff Wilson and possibly a free agent acquisition, but McKinnon is an RB2 and Wilson a Flex play until further notice.

Week 3 Fallers

40 Year Olds (QBs, TB and NO)

Tom Brady and Drew Brees are not done, but they sure look done as fantasy options. For Brady, it is worth considering whether it's Brady himself or the team change combined with a truncated training camp and no preseason. Regardless of the reason, Brady's performance has been lackluster. With quarterbacks having big games all across the NFL, it's concerning that Brady couldn't even reach 10 fantasy points against a laughably bad Panthers Defense.

Brees, on the other hand, just can't do it anymore. He's still incredibly smart and he will make it work a la 2015 Peyton Manning, but Brees' average depth of target continues declining. Granted he doesn't have Michael Thomas, but it's not like Thomas is this splash play deep threat guy. Even with Thomas, Brees never pushed the ball downfield. Now, he's doing it even less. Everything is short and underneath. The Saints still have a great offense so he's always capable of a three touchdown game, but the spike games are going to be few and far between for Brees.

Austin Hooper (TE, CLE)

Two weeks is far too soon to completely write off a near every down tight end on a team lacking passing game options behind its top two receivers, but Austin Hooper is trending towards droppable. Hooper has seen just six targets across two games and failed to reach five fantasy points yet. Perhaps a date with the Football Team's suspect pass defense can right the ship, but if not, it's curtains for Hooper.

A.J. Green (WR, CIN)

I am begging all of you reading this to not buy A.J. Green. I know it's very tempting because of the massive target numbers (22 in two games), but there's a reason his catch percentage is so low and it's not Joe Burrow. A.J. Green is done. Heading into this season, I was out on Green because I didn't want to roll the dice at his ADP that at age 32 after not playing for almost two years that Green was going to resemble his old self. However, I acknowledged the possibility that he was worth a shot because the upside was undoubtedly there. After two weeks, I believe we have our answer. Green does not look like the all pro dominant receiver from the early 2010s. He looks like a 32 year old whose ability has been sapped by age and injury. If the volume continues, he will hav weeks where he puts up Jarvis Landry type numbers, but there is no alpha wide receiver here anymore and by the looks of it (read: Tyler Boyd's usage), Burrow knows it.

Todd Gurley (RB, ATL)

Why not piggyback on the A.J. Green assessment with a similar one. While Green is done at age 32, far from shocking, Todd Gurley is done at age 25. It's astounding to see a guy that was a consensus top three running back in the NFL just two years ago turn into a guy that is probably not going to be in the NFL by 2022, but here we are. Gurley has nothing left. Given how great he was just two years ago, I don't believe his skills have eroded; it's the degenerative knee. Regardless of the reason, Gurley is no longer a viable NFL player. In a game where the Falcons scored 39 points, Gurley managed 61 yards on 21 carries and wasn't targeted a single time. He is a touchdown or bust running back that is apparently being pulled at the goal line in favor of Brian Hill and even Ito Smith. It would not shock me to see Gurley on waiver wires by midseason.

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