RADIO
Top fantasy football risers and fallers heading into Week 17 of the 2022 NFL season. Adam Koffler identifies players at QB, RB, WR, and TE whose value for fantasy football is rising or falling.
Week 16, or what many consider "the semifinals of the fantasy football playoffs," is now officially in the books. We have a lot of good (and new) information we can use to help make decisions as we head into Week 17, "championship week."
In this weekly column, we'll be looking at players whose arrows may be pointing up, and players whose arrows may be pointing down based on the previous week's games. We'll try not to overreact, but instead, use relevant data to make informed decisions about certain players.
Here are the key risers and fallers coming out of Week 16 of the NFL season.
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Week 17 Fantasy Football Risers
D'Andre Swift, Detroit Lions
I already know what you're thinking, "Swift had just 3.5 fantasy points in Week 16." You'd be correct, but the snap share (56%) and route participation (54.3%) were encouraging. It was his highest snap share since Week 1 and his highest route participation since Week 8. He's no longer a "bell cow" so to speak, but he could be gaining steam just when fantasy managers need him most.
There's also a chance Jamaal Williams doesn't play in Week 17. He was apparently injured late in the game vs. the Panthers, but it was widely unreported.
Maybe he plays, maybe he doesn't. This injury could turn out to be nothing. However, it appears Swift and his opportunity are trending in the right direction heading into a fantastic Week 17 matchup against a Chicago Bears team that allows the seventh-most fantasy points to opposing running backs. The Lions also have an implied total of 29 points.
Isaiah Hodgins, New York Giants
Did you know Hodgins has now scored a touchdown in three of his last four games? He's also playing an every-down role for the Giants. In Week 16, he played a season-high 97% of the snaps and had a 95.9% route participation rate. Hodgins plays mostly outside, which has led to him being an every-down player lately.
Daniel Jones has played very well this season, too, completing 66.5% of his passes with a 2.6 touchdown to interception ratio (13 touchdowns and five interceptions). And he's now getting comfortable with Hodgins, who looks the part of a starting wide receiver in the NFL. Remember, Hodgins was actually drafted by the Bills in 2020 and now the head coach of the Giants, Brian Daboll, was part of that Bills organization back then. So Hodgins is a "Daboll guy."
In Week 17, Hodgins gets a Colts team that has been decent against opposing wide receivers, but not so great going up against outside receivers. In fact, the Colts have allowed the fourth-most fantasy points (27.1) per game to outside wide receivers. Remember, Hodgins plays just 10% of his snaps from the slot, so he's the definition of an outside receiver. He could have another solid game in Week 17 should you decide to run him out in your fantasy football championship.
Jahan Dotson, Washington Commanders
Dotson has been incredible the last three weeks. In fact, he's the overall WR6 since Week 13, averaging 16.3 half-PPR points per game. Recall earlier in the season, he caught four touchdowns in his first four games playing with Carson Wentz. Now, it's very possible the Commanders turn to Wentz again after benching Taylor Heinicke in the fourth quarter of their Week 16 game vs. the 49ers.
In his last three games, Dotson is averaging 78.3 yards on eight targets per game. He's scored a touchdown in each of those games and played on 86% of the snaps this past weekend. The Commanders have clearly implemented the rookie into their game plan and that should only continue moving forward.
On paper, it's a tough matchup for Commanders receivers in Week 17 vs. the Browns. Whether or not you decide to start him in your championship comes down to who else is on your roster, of course. But just know, he's scored a touchdown in six of 10 games this season.
Allen Lazard, Green Bay Packers
Christian Watson left the Packers' Week 16 game early due to a hip flexor. After that point, Lazard was targeted four times. He also had seven targets in the first half for a total of 11 targets. He's been a little hit-or-miss this season, but there's no denying his role in the offense given the greater than 90% snap share in each of the last seven games.
If Watson is out in Week 17, that all but solidifies Lazard as a fantastic play against the Vikings, a team allowing the second-most fantasy points per game to opposing wide receivers (33.7). This Minnesota team just allowed Isaiah Hodgins, Richie James, and Darius Slayton to combine for 258 receiving yards this past weekend.
The matchup against the Vikings currently sports the third-highest over/under of Week 17 at 47 (with the Packers being favored by 3.0), which suggests this could be somewhat of a shootout. Luckily for Lazard's fantasy managers, the weather forecast at Lambeau Field actually looks decent for a matchup in January.
Check the forecast and check on Watson's injury prior to locking Lazard into your lineup for Week 17. Either way, he should be a WR3 in a great matchup. If the forecast is good and Watson is out, he could creep into top-20 WR territory this weekend.
Other Risers: Leonard Fournette, Garrett Wilson, Greg Dortch, Rashid Shaheed, Tyler Allgeier
Week 17 Fantasy Football Fallers
Miles Sanders, Philadelphia Eagles
Over the last two weeks, Sanders has averaged just four fantasy points per game. He's also fumbled twice in those two games, which could have a residual effect on his opportunities in Week 17. The Eagles are also down All-Pro RT Lane Johnson for the remainder of the regular season, another major blow to this Eagles offense.
The Saints, who the Eagles face in Week 17, are middle-of-the-pack in terms of fantasy points allowed to running backs at 16.2 points per game. Sanders' involvement in the passing game has also taken a big hit lately. He's seen just two targets in the last two games and has just 25 targets on the season.
Essentially, if he's not scoring touchdowns, he's not producing for fantasy managers. In fact, Sanders has averaged just 4.8 fantasy points per game in the last four games he hasn't scored a touchdown. Tread lightly on locking the Eagles' "starting" running back into your lineup for the fantasy football championship.
J.K. Dobbins, Baltimore Ravens
For what it's worth, Dobbins has looked pretty good in the last three games. The problem isn't his efficiency, it's his overall volume and opportunity share. He's averaged 5.1 yards per carry in his last three games but has averaged just 14 opportunities on a 40% snap share in those games. In Week 16, Dobbins had just a 50% RB opportunity share with Gus Edwards also carrying the ball 11 times.
To make matters a little more tricky for Dobbins and his fantasy managers, the third-year back is used very little in the passing game. In fact, he has been targeted just eight times in seven games this season. The only way Dobbins is producing is if he finds the end zone.
The problem in Week 17 is that the Ravens' opponent, the Steelers, have allowed just the sixth-fewest rushing yards per game (105.6) and the second-fewest rushing touchdowns per game (0.5). This game also features an over/under of just 36 points, signaling it could be a low-scoring affair.
Josh Jacobs, Las Vegas Raiders
This one's tough, as Jacobs has been incredible this season for those that drafted him in the "RB Dead Zone." However, the Raiders host the 49ers in Week 17 and are currently 5.5-point underdogs. The 49ers have stifled opposing running backs all season, allowing a league-least 13.5 fantasy points per game to opposing rushers. The Patriots have allowed the second-least fantasy points to running backs at 16 points per game.
Jacobs has played a lot recently, having a snap share of around 80% in the last seven games. That's because the Raiders have been able to keep games competitive. On the season, Jacobs has just four games of single-digit fantasy points. The Raiders have lost each of those four games. He's also played fewer than 70% of the snaps in just five games this season. All five of those games were losses.
The 49ers may just be the hottest team in football right now, having won eight straight games heading into Week 17. They've also held their opponents to just 12.1 points in those eight games. And what's more, Jacobs is not happy with how the Raiders are playing right now, have a look.
Donovan Peoples-Jones, Cleveland Browns
Peoples-Jones has had exactly one good game (out of four) playing with Deshaun Watson. That was Week 14 against the Bengals when he exploded for 114 yards on 12 targets. In the other three games, he's averaged just 2.7 receptions for 25.7 yards on four targets per game. DPJ managed to salvage his fantasy managers by scoring a touchdown in two of those games, but he hasn't been great with Watson.
To make matters worse, the Browns' Week 17 opponent, the Commanders, have conceded the seventh-fewest passing yards per game this season (198.6). Over the last five weeks, Washington has also allowed just the fourth-fewest fantasy points to opposing wideouts (24.3).
After a stretch of games between Weeks 4 and 10 when Peoples-Jones averaged 73 yards on 6.7 targets per game, DPJ has since cooled down in a big way. Consider him no more than a dart throw boom or bust option in Week 17.
Other Fallers: Deshaun Watson, Cordarrelle Patterson, Chris Moore, Raheem Mostert
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