Fantasy Football Risers and Fallers - Week 16

December 21, 2022

Top fantasy football risers and fallers heading into Week 16 of the 2022 NFL season. Adam Koffler identifies players at QB, RB, WR, and TE whose value for fantasy football is rising or falling.

Week 15, or what many consider "the first round of the fantasy football playoffs," is now officially in the books. We have a lot of good (and new) information we can use to help make decisions as we head into Week 16, "the semifinals" and beyond.

In this weekly column, we'll be looking at players whose arrows may be pointing up, and players whose arrows may be pointing down based on the previous week's games. We'll try not to overreact, but instead, use relevant data to make informed decisions about certain players.

Here are the key risers and fallers coming out of Week 15 of the NFL season.

Week 16 Fantasy Football Risers

Jerick McKinnon, Kansas City Chiefs

We're officially witnessing the Jerick McKinnon takeover in the Chiefs backfield (at least for the remainder of this season). He has now finished as the overall RB1 in consecutive weeks, scoring 32.4 PPR points and 34.2 PPR points, respectively.

McKinnon has averaged just 15.5 touches per game in those two games, but they're extremely high-value touches. He's totaled 182 receiving yards on 8.5 targets per game and has scored a total of four touchdowns on eight opportunities inside the opponents' 30-yard line.

In what is now just a two-man backfield essentially with Isiah Pacheco, McKinnon is playing on an average of 60% of the snaps, whereas throughout his first 13 games, he averaged just 40% of the snaps and far fewer opportunities.

A very nice matchup with the Seahawks at home now awaits McKinnon, who should be considered a surefire RB1 this week.

James Conner, Arizona Cardinals

Conner is essentially doing exactly what he did last season when Chase Edmonds was out. He's become a workhorse's workhorse, the bell cow of all bell cows so-to-speak. In his last five games, Conner has seen a 90% snap share in four of those games. In those four games, he's averaged almost 24 opportunities per game. That's insane!

He hasn't been super efficient, but when you're on the field the entire game and getting 24 opportunities per game, it really doesn't matter. Conner is the overall RB4 in PPR formats since Week 10, averaging 19.9 fantasy points per game. Only Josh Jacobs, Tony Pollard, and Christian McCaffrey have averaged more points per game since then.

It may not be the best matchup on paper for Conner in Week 16 as the Cardinals host the Buccaneers, but he's likely going to continue dominating the snaps. That's especially true if Arizona is forced to roll with Trace McSorley at quarterback, as they'll want a veteran presence in the backfield to take some of the pressure off McSorley, who would be making his first career NFL start.

After the Bucs in Week 16 comes a nice matchup against the Falcons in what most consider fantasy football championship week.

As an aside, Keaontay Ingram makes for a nice stash as he's the only guy that's seen any work alongside Conner and could become a bell cow himself should anything happen to Conner (knock on wood).

Cordarrelle Patterson, Atlanta Falcons

C Patt has life once again due to, of all things, Caleb Huntley suffering an injury. His 17 opportunities (14 carries + three targets) were the most he's had since Week 3. Additionally, Patterson ran a season-high 14 routes and had a route participation rate of 46.7%, his second-highest rate in any game this season. He also got four red zone carries in Week 15. Speaking of the red zone, check out how often Patterson is used inside the 20:

Many will jump on the Tyler Allgeier train as he rushed 17 times for 139 yards and a score against the Saints; however, the Ravens present a much tougher matchup in Week 16. The tougher matchup on the ground could lead to more production from the "route-running" back, which is Patterson until further notice.

Marquise Goodwin, Seattle Seahawks

I was going to write about DK Metcalf, but that doesn't really do anyone a whole lot of good, because if you have Metcalf, you're starting him every single week. So in light of Tyler Lockett's finger injury, let's talk instead about Marquise Goodwin, the Seahawks' presumed WR2 in Week 16 against the Chiefs.

In Week 7, when Metcalf only played 25% of the snaps, Goodwin stepped in and had a 72.4% route participation. He also has five red zone targets in his last seven games playing in what has generally been a part-time role. Now, in Week 16, the Seahawks will go up against the Chiefs, who allow the sixth-most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers.

Goodwin should play on at least 75% of the snaps and have at least a 75% route participation this week, which should be enough to make him a viable WR3/4 for those in need of a plug-n-play wide receiver. Remember, with Lockett out, there's a 24% target share up for grabs. Metcalf's target share will presumably rise, but Goodwin should also see a solid chunk of those vacated targets.

Other Risers: Brock Purdy, JuJu Smith-Schuster, K.J. Osborn, George Kittle

Week 16 Fantasy Football Fallers

Alvin Kamara, New Orleans Saints

Since when did Alvin Kamara become an inefficient part-time player? Well, since after his 42.8 PPR-point explosion in Week 8, Kamara has averaged just 9.1 fantasy points per game. Additionally, his opportunities per game are down. In his first six games, Kamara averaged a whopping 23.3 opportunities per game, whereas in his last six games he's averaged just 15.7.

Kamara no longer seems like a "must start" heading into the fantasy football semifinals in Week 16, especially given the forecasted weather conditions in Cleveland. The game against the Browns features an over/under of just 32 points, with the Saints implied total sitting at just 14.8 points. That doesn't bode well for Kamara, who hasn't scored a touchdown since Week 8 and has just three total touchdowns on the season.

It's a decent matchup against a beatable run defense, but the total screams slugfest, defensive-type game. You shouldn't necessarily sit Kamara, but you should understand the decrease in his opportunities and the game environment he finds himself a part of in Week 16.

Joe Mixon, Cincinnati Bengals

From the time the 2022 NFL schedule was released, I knew Mixon would have a tough go of it. Have a look:

Not only that, but Mixon has also lost some work to Samaje Perine, who played well in his absence for a couple of games. His RB opportunity share has been 59% and 68% each of the last two weeks. Earlier in the season, Mixon was seeing RB opportunity shares of 80% on a consistent basis, so that's a big change.

In Week 16, Mixon and the Bengals face off against the Patriots, who are allowing the second-fewest fantasy points to opposing running backs (11.7 points per game). I get it, it's a tough pill to swallow to sit Mixon, but don't be afraid if you have two other running backs on your roster with better matchups.

D'Onta Foreman, Carolina Panthers

Since his 19-point performance in Week 10 against the Falcons, Foreman has been a pretty big disappointment for those who have started him. In fact, in his last four games, D'Onta has averaged just 5.8 fantasy points per game. He's also not seeing any work whatsoever in the passing game, having totaled just nine targets on the entire season thus far.

Foreman, unfortunately for fantasy managers, is being completely game-scripted out of games in which the Panthers find themselves trailing. He's played fewer than 47% of the snaps in four of his last six games. Chuba Hubbard has the pass-catching role, and in Week 15, played on 63% of the snaps. He only netted 9.7 PPR points, but he was on the field much more than Foreman.

Week 16 could be a similar split, as the Panthers take on a surging Lions team with a fantastic defensive front. Detroit allows the 10th-fewest fantasy points to opposing running backs, which doesn't bode well for a guy who only produces via the run.

Marquise Brown, Arizona Cardinals

This one is not so much the player's fault as it is the situation. Hollywood Brown came back in Week 12 and has since already played with three quarterbacks (Kyler Murray, Colt McCoy, and Trace McSorley). Fast forward to Week 16, and Brown will most likely be catching passes from McSorley, who is set to make his first career NFL start.

Since his return, Brown has averaged eight targets per game. That seems like a lot until you compare it to his early-season volume. In his first six games, he averaged 10.7 targets. Sure, he was playing without DeAndre Hopkins in those games, but the results still count. Now, he's playing alongside D Hop and has to catch passes from a guy who doesn't want to throw the ball down the field.

In his last three games, Hollywood has averaged just 33 yards per game and 4.1 yards per target. That's just not going to get it done. Feel free to sit Brown this week for a better option like Chris Moore.

Other Fallers: Nick Chubb, Chris Olave, Allen Lazard, Pat Freiermuth

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