X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Value Picks
Compare Any Players
News and Alerts

Fantasy Football Risers and Fallers - Week 16

Jerick McKinnon - Fantasy Football Rankings, Waiver Wire Pickups, Draft Sleepers

Top fantasy football risers and fallers heading into Week 16 of the 2022 NFL season. Adam Koffler identifies players at QB, RB, WR, and TE whose value for fantasy football is rising or falling.

Week 15, or what many consider "the first round of the fantasy football playoffs," is now officially in the books. We have a lot of good (and new) information we can use to help make decisions as we head into Week 16, "the semifinals" and beyond.

In this weekly column, we'll be looking at players whose arrows may be pointing up, and players whose arrows may be pointing down based on the previous week's games. We'll try not to overreact, but instead, use relevant data to make informed decisions about certain players.

Here are the key risers and fallers coming out of Week 15 of the NFL season.

Editor's Note: Identify fantasy football draft busts, overvalued ADPs, and key players to avoid so you can draft with confidence this season.

 

Week 16 Fantasy Football Risers

Jerick McKinnon, Kansas City Chiefs

We're officially witnessing the Jerick McKinnon takeover in the Chiefs backfield (at least for the remainder of this season). He has now finished as the overall RB1 in consecutive weeks, scoring 32.4 PPR points and 34.2 PPR points, respectively.

McKinnon has averaged just 15.5 touches per game in those two games, but they're extremely high-value touches. He's totaled 182 receiving yards on 8.5 targets per game and has scored a total of four touchdowns on eight opportunities inside the opponents' 30-yard line.

In what is now just a two-man backfield essentially with Isiah Pacheco, McKinnon is playing on an average of 60% of the snaps, whereas throughout his first 13 games, he averaged just 40% of the snaps and far fewer opportunities.

A very nice matchup with the Seahawks at home now awaits McKinnon, who should be considered a surefire RB1 this week.

James Conner, Arizona Cardinals

Conner is essentially doing exactly what he did last season when Chase Edmonds was out. He's become a workhorse's workhorse, the bell cow of all bell cows so-to-speak. In his last five games, Conner has seen a 90% snap share in four of those games. In those four games, he's averaged almost 24 opportunities per game. That's insane!

He hasn't been super efficient, but when you're on the field the entire game and getting 24 opportunities per game, it really doesn't matter. Conner is the overall RB4 in PPR formats since Week 10, averaging 19.9 fantasy points per game. Only Josh Jacobs, Tony Pollard, and Christian McCaffrey have averaged more points per game since then.

It may not be the best matchup on paper for Conner in Week 16 as the Cardinals host the Buccaneers, but he's likely going to continue dominating the snaps. That's especially true if Arizona is forced to roll with Trace McSorley at quarterback, as they'll want a veteran presence in the backfield to take some of the pressure off McSorley, who would be making his first career NFL start.

After the Bucs in Week 16 comes a nice matchup against the Falcons in what most consider fantasy football championship week.

As an aside, Keaontay Ingram makes for a nice stash as he's the only guy that's seen any work alongside Conner and could become a bell cow himself should anything happen to Conner (knock on wood).

Cordarrelle Patterson, Atlanta Falcons

C Patt has life once again due to, of all things, Caleb Huntley suffering an injury. His 17 opportunities (14 carries + three targets) were the most he's had since Week 3. Additionally, Patterson ran a season-high 14 routes and had a route participation rate of 46.7%, his second-highest rate in any game this season. He also got four red zone carries in Week 15. Speaking of the red zone, check out how often Patterson is used inside the 20:

Many will jump on the Tyler Allgeier train as he rushed 17 times for 139 yards and a score against the Saints; however, the Ravens present a much tougher matchup in Week 16. The tougher matchup on the ground could lead to more production from the "route-running" back, which is Patterson until further notice.

Marquise Goodwin, Seattle Seahawks

I was going to write about DK Metcalf, but that doesn't really do anyone a whole lot of good, because if you have Metcalf, you're starting him every single week. So in light of Tyler Lockett's finger injury, let's talk instead about Marquise Goodwin, the Seahawks' presumed WR2 in Week 16 against the Chiefs.

In Week 7, when Metcalf only played 25% of the snaps, Goodwin stepped in and had a 72.4% route participation. He also has five red zone targets in his last seven games playing in what has generally been a part-time role. Now, in Week 16, the Seahawks will go up against the Chiefs, who allow the sixth-most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers.

Goodwin should play on at least 75% of the snaps and have at least a 75% route participation this week, which should be enough to make him a viable WR3/4 for those in need of a plug-n-play wide receiver. Remember, with Lockett out, there's a 24% target share up for grabs. Metcalf's target share will presumably rise, but Goodwin should also see a solid chunk of those vacated targets.

Other Risers: Brock Purdy, JuJu Smith-Schuster, K.J. Osborn, George Kittle

 

Week 16 Fantasy Football Fallers

Alvin Kamara, New Orleans Saints

Since when did Alvin Kamara become an inefficient part-time player? Well, since after his 42.8 PPR-point explosion in Week 8, Kamara has averaged just 9.1 fantasy points per game. Additionally, his opportunities per game are down. In his first six games, Kamara averaged a whopping 23.3 opportunities per game, whereas in his last six games he's averaged just 15.7.

Kamara no longer seems like a "must start" heading into the fantasy football semifinals in Week 16, especially given the forecasted weather conditions in Cleveland. The game against the Browns features an over/under of just 32 points, with the Saints implied total sitting at just 14.8 points. That doesn't bode well for Kamara, who hasn't scored a touchdown since Week 8 and has just three total touchdowns on the season.

It's a decent matchup against a beatable run defense, but the total screams slugfest, defensive-type game. You shouldn't necessarily sit Kamara, but you should understand the decrease in his opportunities and the game environment he finds himself a part of in Week 16.

Joe Mixon, Cincinnati Bengals

From the time the 2022 NFL schedule was released, I knew Mixon would have a tough go of it. Have a look:

Not only that, but Mixon has also lost some work to Samaje Perine, who played well in his absence for a couple of games. His RB opportunity share has been 59% and 68% each of the last two weeks. Earlier in the season, Mixon was seeing RB opportunity shares of 80% on a consistent basis, so that's a big change.

In Week 16, Mixon and the Bengals face off against the Patriots, who are allowing the second-fewest fantasy points to opposing running backs (11.7 points per game). I get it, it's a tough pill to swallow to sit Mixon, but don't be afraid if you have two other running backs on your roster with better matchups.

D'Onta Foreman, Carolina Panthers

Since his 19-point performance in Week 10 against the Falcons, Foreman has been a pretty big disappointment for those who have started him. In fact, in his last four games, D'Onta has averaged just 5.8 fantasy points per game. He's also not seeing any work whatsoever in the passing game, having totaled just nine targets on the entire season thus far.

Foreman, unfortunately for fantasy managers, is being completely game-scripted out of games in which the Panthers find themselves trailing. He's played fewer than 47% of the snaps in four of his last six games. Chuba Hubbard has the pass-catching role, and in Week 15, played on 63% of the snaps. He only netted 9.7 PPR points, but he was on the field much more than Foreman.

Week 16 could be a similar split, as the Panthers take on a surging Lions team with a fantastic defensive front. Detroit allows the 10th-fewest fantasy points to opposing running backs, which doesn't bode well for a guy who only produces via the run.

Marquise Brown, Arizona Cardinals

This one is not so much the player's fault as it is the situation. Hollywood Brown came back in Week 12 and has since already played with three quarterbacks (Kyler Murray, Colt McCoy, and Trace McSorley). Fast forward to Week 16, and Brown will most likely be catching passes from McSorley, who is set to make his first career NFL start.

Since his return, Brown has averaged eight targets per game. That seems like a lot until you compare it to his early-season volume. In his first six games, he averaged 10.7 targets. Sure, he was playing without DeAndre Hopkins in those games, but the results still count. Now, he's playing alongside D Hop and has to catch passes from a guy who doesn't want to throw the ball down the field.

In his last three games, Hollywood has averaged just 33 yards per game and 4.1 yards per target. That's just not going to get it done. Feel free to sit Brown this week for a better option like Chris Moore.

Other Fallers: Nick Chubb, Chris Olave, Allen Lazard, Pat Freiermuth



Download Our Free News & Alerts Mobile App

Like what you see? Download our updated fantasy football app for iPhone and Android with 24x7 player news, injury alerts, rankings, starts/sits & more. All free!

More Fantasy Football Analysis




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Value Picks
Compare Any Players
News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Jake Burger

to Miss an Additional 2-3 Weeks
TreVeyon Henderson

Signs Rookie Contract
Christian Watson

Goes on PUP List
Austin Riley

Hopes to be Activated Next Week
Ketel Marte

Lands on Restricted List After Burglary
Ricky Pearsall

Heads to PUP List
Brandon Aiyuk

Placed on PUP List
Luther Burden III

Signs Rookie Deal
Washington Nationals

Eli Willits Expected to Sign Contract on Saturday
Grayson Rodriguez

Being Shut Down Again - Will We See Him Again This Year?
Ezequiel Tovar

Activated and Back in Lineup on Friday
Max Fried

"Hopeful" to Pitch Next Week - Looks Like He'll Avoid IL Stint
Steven Kwan

Receives Injection in Wrist, Considered Day-to-Day
CJ Abrams

Back to Start Second Half
Alec Bohm

Back From Rib Injury on Friday
Trey Hendrickson

Holdout to Spill into Regular Season?
Jalen McMillan

Bucs Offensive Coordinator Not Forgetting About Jalen McMillan
Levi Onwuzurike

to Miss at Least Four Games
Nick Emmanwori

Seahawks, Nick Emmanwori Reach Agreement on Rookie Deal
Max Holloway

Set For Main Event
Brandon Lowe

Back From 10-Day Injured List
Dustin Poirier

Set For His Final UFC Fight
Roman Kopylov

Set For Co-Main Event
Paulo Costa

Returns At UFC 318
Luis L. Ortiz

to Remain on Leave for Another Month - Will he Pitch Again?
Daniel Rodriguez

Looks For Third Win In A Row
Kevin Holland

Set For His Fourth Fight This Year
Dan Ige

Looks To Win Back-To-Back Fights
MMA

Patricio Freire Set For His Second UFC Fight
Daniel Zellhuber

Set To Open Up UFC 318 Main Card
Michael Johnson

Looks For Third Consecutive Win
Elijah Arroyo

Signs Rookie Deal
Jaydon Blue

Described as "Borderline Lazy"
T.J. Sanders

Bills Sign T.J. Sanders to Rookie Deal
Christian Wilkins

Raiders Put Christian Wilkins on PUP List
Jabari Small

Lions Add Jabari Small to Backfield
Quinshon Judkins

Remains Unsigned, Won't Report With Rest of Rookies
Mason Taylor

Agrees to Rookie Contract with Jets
Hendon Hooker

Leading Lions QB2 Battle Entering Training Camp
Ozzy Trapilo

Agrees to Rookie Contract with Bears
Tate Ratledge

Agrees to Rookie Contract with Lions
Jack Bech

Signs Rookie Contract with Raiders
Yegor Chinakhov

Requests Trade
Dakota Joshua

Maple Leafs Acquire Dakota Joshua
Lukas Dostal

Signs Five-Year Extension with Ducks
Shemar Stewart

Not Practicing With College Team
Eugenio Suárez

Eugenio Suarez Expected Back Friday
Damian Lillard

Returning to Portland
Paul Skenes

Pirates Could Preserve Paul Skenes in Second Half
Brooks Barnhizer

Grabs 19 Points, Nine Boards in Summer League Win
Jeremiah Fears

Scores 22 Points in Summer League Loss to Thunder
Isaiah Collier

Collects 17 Points In Summer League Win
Caleb Houstan

Joins Hawks
AJ Johnson

Erupts for 25 Points in Summer League Loss
Washington Wizards

Leaky Black Logs Double-Double in Loss to Jazz
Connor Norby

Undergoes Surgery, Expected to Miss 6-8 Weeks
Trey Alexander

Tallies 25 Points in Losing Effort
Johni Broome

Records Second Consecutive Double-Double
Jahmir Young

Has Historic Summer League Outing
Rob Dillingham

Plays Big Role in Wednesday's Win
Tyrese Proctor

Erupts for 35 Points Against Kings
Cody Williams

Leads Jazz to Victory Against Wizards
LeBron James

Mavs Not Interested in "Gutting its Roster" For LeBron James
Josh Hart

Undergoes a Procedure on Right Finger
Jake Burger

Goes on 10-Day Injured List With Quad Strain
Sal Frelick

Dealing With Grade 1 Hamstring Strain, TBD for Start of Second Half
Chris Sale

Plays Catch
Los Angeles Clippers

Bradley Beal Heading to Los Angeles to Join Clippers After Contract Buyout
Rayan Rupert

Scores 24 Points in Summer League Win
Derik Queen

Collects Third Consecutive Double-Double in Summer League Loss
GG Jackson II

Records 13 Points in Summer League Action on Tuesday
Johni Broome

Logs Double-Double Against Wizards
DaRon Holmes II

Records Double-Double in Summer League Loss to Raptors
Kyle Schwarber

Named All-Star Game MVP
Harris English

Takes Stellar 2025 Performance to The Open Championship
Aldrich Potgieter

Seeks Better Result in Northern Ireland
Cameron Young

Likely to Hang Around at The Open Championship
Cameron Smith

Just Trying to Make the Cut at Royal Portrush
Jordan Spieth

Is Jordan Spieth Still a Natural for Links Style Golf?
Patrick Reed

a Viable Option at The Open Championship
PGA

Sungjae Im Wants to Rebound from Last Experience at Royal Portrush
Xander Schauffele

Looks to Defend His Claret Jug at Royal Portrush
Tony Finau

Trying to Turn Tide at Royal Portrush
Daniel Brown

Seeks a Rebound at The Open Championship
Rory McIlroy

Will be the Most Watched Player This Week at Royal Portrush
Daniel Berger

Trending Poorly as The Open Championship Looms
Clayton Kershaw

Retires Both Batters In ASG Appearance
Eugenio Suárez

Eugenio Suarez Hit In Pinky In All-Star Game, X-Rays Negative
Robert MacIntyre

Hoping to Bounce Back at Open Championship
Shane Lowry

Hopes to Repeat at Royal Portrush
Brian Harman

Hopes to Rekindle Some Magic at the 153rd Open
UTA

Michael Carcone Returns to Utah on One-Year Contract
Bowen Byram

Signs Two-Year Deal with Sabres
Morgan Barron

Jets Re-Sign Morgan Barron for Two Years
PGA

Chris Gotterup Punches Ticket to Royal Portrush With Win at Scottish Open
Bryson DeChambeau

Hopes to Reverse Links Golf Struggle at the 153rd Open
Keegan Bradley

Needs to Find The Weekend at Royal Portrush for Ryder Cup Hopes
Justin Thomas

Finishes Tied For 22nd at Genesis Scottish Open
Scottie Scheffler

Finishes Tied For Eighth at Genesis Scottish Open
Jon Rahm

Finishes in Second at LIV Andalucia
Tallison Teixeira

Suffers First-Round TKO
Derrick Lewis

Scores First-Round TKO
Stephen Thompson

Loses Controversial Split Decision
Gabriel Bonfim

Wins Controversial Split Decision
Calvin Kattar

Gets Outclassed At UFC Nashville
Steve Garcia

Extends His Win Streak
Nate Landwehr

Gets Knocked Out
Morgan Charrière

Morgan Charriere Scores Third-Round Knockout
Austen Lane

Suffers Submission Loss
Vitor Petrino

Scores First-Round Submission In Heavyweight Debut
Tuco Tokkos

Earns His First UFC Win
Chase Elliott

Charges to A Finish of Third At Sonoma
Chase Briscoe

Finishes Second With his First Career Road-Course Top-Five at Sonoma
Christopher Bell

Rollercoaster Day Ends With Top-5 Finish at Sonoma
William Byron

Maintains the Regular-Season Points Lead
Kyle Busch

Earns A Hard-Fought Top-10 Finish At Sonoma
Alex Ovechkin

Not Thinking About Retirement
PIT

Penguins Acquire Arturs Silovs
NHL

Nikolai Kovalenko Returns to Russia
Tyler Reddick

Evades Near Upset to Remain Alive in In-Season Challenge
Ty Gibbs

One of Three Tylers to Make In-Season Challenge Semifinals
Kyle Larson

Curiously Mediocre at Sonoma Before Late-Race Crash
NASCAR

John H. Nemechek Edges Out Teammate to Make In-Season Challenge Semifinal
Alex Bowman

Ty Dillon Bumps Alex Bowman to Advance to In-Season Challenge Semifinal
Shane Van Gisbergen

Can Anyone Beat Shane van Gisbergen at Sonoma?
Tyler Reddick

Better at Sonoma Than Record Shows
Chase Elliott

a Prime DFS Option at Sonoma
Michael McDowell

Struggling a Bit at Sonoma
NASCAR

Christopher Bell Has Never Finished Better Than Ninth at Sonoma
Ryan Blaney

Has Top-10 Upside at Sonoma
NASCAR

Sunday at Sonoma Will Likely Be a Long Race for Bubba Wallace
Kyle Larson

Is A Likely Top-Five Contender for Sonoma
Ryan Preece

Points Position Could Affect Race at Sonoma
Todd Gilliland

Struggling to Find Speed at Sonoma
Ty Gibbs

May be an Underrated Favorite to Compete for the Win at Sonoma
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF