Fantasy Football Risers and Fallers - Week 14

December 9, 2020

Fantasy football risers and fallers heading into Week 14 of the NFL season. Jason looks at recent changes in fantasy values including lineup starts and sits.

Whether due to their own play, the play of others, or injuries, players' stock increases and decreases on a weekly basis. Perhaps more than any other, the NFL is a league that experiences ups and downs at a rapid pace. With only 16 games, there’s little room for error and seemingly endless opportunities for improvement. The same goes for fantasy football; managing rosters effectively is key to winning that championship.

Throughout the season, players get hot and see an increased role while others struggle and fight to stay relevant. Experienced fantasy players know this happens every year. In this weekly column, we’ll showcase those who have taken important steps forward and those who have taken steps back.

These are the key risers and fallers heading into Week 13 of the NFL season.

Week 14 Fantasy Football Risers

Ryan Tannehill, Tennessee Titans

This is a bit risky because of the nature of the Titans' offense, but we must acknowledge the play of Ryan Tannehill. In all but three games this season, Tannehill has thrown for multiple touchdowns. This past week, albeit in extreme negative game script, Tannehill threw for 389 yards and three touchdowns. While we know the Titans would prefer to run the ball repeatedly with Derrick Henry, they aren't going to simply not call pass plays. The Titans face the Jaguars and Lions over the next two weeks, both very favorable matchups. Tannehill could carry fantasy teams to the championship game.

Cole Kmet, Chicago Bears

I know. I know. You expected to see Darren Waller's name here. Remember, this is about who is rising and falling; Waller was already a consensus top five tight end. Having a top 10 all time tight end performance warrants recognition, but we know Waller is good. Cole Kmet, however, is just starting to emerge. It should come as no surprise when rookie tight ends fail to produce, but it also should come as no surprise if they start to pick things up late in their rookie seasons. That is exactly what Kmet is doing. Over the past three weeks, Kmet saw his snap share skyrocket from sub 50% the entire season to about 75%. Meanwhile, Jimmy Graham played 80% of the snaps back in Week 1 and that number has been under 50% the past two weeks. Graham has been done for about half a decade. He doesn't belong in the NFL. Kmet is just getting started. He saw a season high seven targets last week and found the end zone for just the second time this season. With three unimposing matchups to close out the fantasy season, Kmet may be a legitimate option at the tight end position in the fantasy playoffs.

Corey Davis, Tennessee Titans

I don't like doubling up on one team, but Corey Davis deserves it. Davis has scored double digit fantasy points in all but one game this season (an anomalous Week 9 goose egg). Negative game script contributed to Davis' 12 targets last week, but the fact remains he caught 11 of them for 182 yards and a touchdown. He's surpassed 100 yards receiving four times this season and has the same favorable schedule as Tannehill above. As it turns out, my buddy Kev Mahserejian was right, we should've given Corey Davis one more chance. He is a must start during the fantasy playoffs.

T.Y. Hilton, Indianapolis Colts

It sure looked like a lost season for a washed up T.Y. Hilton. If the last two weeks are any indication, Hilton still has something left in the tank. Hilton has posted back to back WR1 performances with a touchdown in consecutive games. This, of course, comes after he was dropped in many fantasy leagues with just one double digit outing prior to last week. The Colts have the Raiders and Texans over the next two weeks and Philip Rivers has been playing surprisingly good football. Hilton could disappear at any moment and it's difficult to discount 11 weeks in favor of the past two, but I wouldn't be afraid to start Hilton in Week 14.

David Montgomery, Chicago Bears

I can't believe I'm actually going to have to say nice things about David Montgomery. I'm sure he's a good kid and all, but I've bashed him incessantly for the better part of two years for being terrible at football and a sub-replacement level running back. In my defense, that's what he looked like as a college prospect and that's what he was in the NFL before his Week 9 injury. What exactly did they give Montgomery while he was hurt? The guy I watched play football the past two weeks is not the same horrendous football player I saw in 2019 and the first half of 2020. Montgomery has surpassed 25 fantasy points in back to back games and has looked impressive doing so. He's locked into all the volume in the Bears' backfield and closes the season against the Texans, Vikings, and Jaguars. Montgomery, dare I say, may make me eat some serious crow in becoming a league winner.

Cam Akers, Los Angeles Rams

You may be told that the Rams' backfield is still a timeshare, and to some extent, that's true, but the Cam Akers takeover is upon us. Akers led the team with 22 carries last week and, most notably, was the clear goal line back. On one series, Akers received four consecutive carries. He didn't score, but that's beside the point (he later got in anyway). The goal line work and the overall usage means you can genuinely trust Akers going forward. Running backs are impossible to find and Akers may just be what you need to put you over the top in the fantasy playoffs.

Jonathan Taylor, Indianapolis Colts

It's been an up and down rookie season for the man I described as a near Saquon Barkley level prospect, but Jonathan Taylor may finally be coming into his own down the stretch. Sandwiched between a missed game due to contact tracing, Taylor has and RB2 and RB1 performance where he was the clear primary back for the Colts. Taylor broke free for a long receiving touchdown last week, but it's his 13 carries for 91 yards that has me most excited. Taylor was benched for Jordan Wilkins and Nyheim Hines because Taylor was playing 2019 David Montgomery type football (sorry, couldn't help myself). In Week 11 and again in Week 13, Taylor looked like the elite prospect many of us thought he was. Here's to hoping this is a sign of things to come.

Week 14 Fantasy Football Fallers

Russell Wilson, Seattle Seahawks

When your team loses at home to Colt McCoy, you get called out. I love Russell Wilson, but he is once again going to get zero MVP votes and this time, he will deserve it. Wilson lit the world on fire over the first nine weeks of the season. He was, dare I say, cookin'. That seems like a distant memory now. Over the past month, Wilson has just a single 20 fantasy point outing, throwing four touchdowns in four games with not a single 300 yard effort. He's also fumbled four times and thrown three interceptions. Pete Carroll has gone back into his shell and Wilson has played poorly. Of his final three matchups, only the Jets are favorable and we know the Seahawks will win that game convincingly and likely go run heavy. It could be a disappointing close to one of the hottest starts in fantasy history.

D.J. Chark, Jacksonville Jaguars

By far, one of my biggest whiffs of the 2020 season is D.J. Chark. Despite continuing to operate as the clear WR1 in Jacksonville, Chark just can't get things going. I still believe in the talent and in a better offensive situation, should that come at some point in the next couple years, I will be back in on Chark, but while the Jaguars' quarterback situation is what it is, I'm out, and you should be, too. Chark posted two monster WR1 games in Weeks 4 and 9. Other than that, he's hit double digits just three times while missing games sporadically due to injury. It's been a very disappointing season for Chark. The targeting remains there, but the production hasn't followed. Mike Glennon is not taking Chark to fantasy greatness. With Weeks 15 and 16 against the Ravens and Bears, Week 14 is the last time you can even consider starting Chark and given the past 13 weeks, I wouldn't recommend it.

Devontae Booker, Las Vegas Raiders

I usually don't bother with backup running backs thrust into starting roles due to injury, but Devontae Booker's flop against the hapless Jets warrants discussion. We got everything we could ask for. There was no negative game script and Booker was the clear primary back, touching the ball 17 times. Unfortunately, Booker was unable to do anything against, need I remind you, the Jets. I don't expect Josh Jacobs to return this week, giving Booker another opportunity as the main back, but he's certainly not the must start I thought he was last week and the matchup against the Colts is by no means an easy one.

Miles Sanders, Philadelphia Eagles

It's been a historically bad year for early round running backs and Miles Sanders is no exception. In addition to missing three games, Sanders has completely busted in four games, most notably and most crippling for fantasy managers, each of the past three. Sanders has hit 20 fantasy points just twice this season. For context, that's two more fantasy points than he has in his past three games combined. Coinciding with Sanders' further dip in production is a decrease in usage. Sanders was supposed to break the Doug Pederson trend of shuffling running backs no matter who he had. That looked like it was happening early in the season, but since Sanders' most recent return from injury, his snap counts have been 72%, 60%, 61%, and 56%. That's nowhere near bellcow usage. Perhaps the switch to Jalen Hurts will open things up for the running game (I can't imagine anything is worse than Carson Wentz), but I'm not optimistic. Sanders is very difficult to bench, but the next two weeks against the Saints and Cardinals do not look like games the Eagles can win, which could limit Sanders' usage. There's also the fact that Hurts may choose to take off as opposed to dump it off to Sanders.

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