RADIO
Week 11 is officially in the books. This week, the Broncos and Rams are back in action, with the Cardinals and Chiefs on Bye.
In this weekly column, we'll look at players whose arrows may be pointing up, and players whose arrows may be pointing down based on the previous week's games. We'll try not to overreact, but instead, use relevant data to make informed decisions about these players.
Here are the key risers and fallers heading into Week 12 (and beyond) of the NFL season.
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Fantasy Football Risers for Week 12
Elijah Moore, New York Jets
The post-Bye Week rookie spike in production looks to be a real thing for Elijah Moore, who has now seen six or more targets in each of his last five games. Only Corey Davis is running more routes than the rookie right now. In his last three games, Moore has run an average of 33.7 routes per game. With an average of 8.3 targets per game in those three games, that gives him a targets per route run (TPRR) rate of 24.8%. Meanwhile, Davis sits at just 17.8% TPRR in his last two games. Moore has also seen four red zone targets in his last three games. For all intents and purposes, it looks like the rookie has become the number one receiver for the Jets over the last few weeks, and I'd expect his production to continue in Week 12 against a very beatable Texans secondary.
Tre'Quan Smith, New Orleans Saints
Smith has seen an uptick in snap share, routes run, targets, and receptions each of the past five weeks. In the last three weeks, he's run an average of 38.7 routes per game and has been targeted 6.3 times per game. In Week 11, Tre'Quan played on a season-high 95% of the snaps. With Alvin Kamara sidelined, the Saints have had to rely on other skill players to make plays, and Smith has done that the past few weeks. New Orleans will be at home the next couple of weeks against the Bills and Cowboys, meaning they'll likely have to throw it a lot to keep up with two high-powered offenses. Tre'Quan's arrow continues to trend up.
Miles Sanders, Philadelphia Eagles
Sanders returned to the lineup in Week 11 after a multi-week absence and led the Eagles with 94 rushing yards against what is considered a pretty stout run defense. Jordan Howard and Boston Scott filled in admirably for Sanders between Weeks 8-10, but Sanders essentially got his starting gig back last week. Howard also suffered a knee injury which is most likely going to keep him out for 1-2 weeks, so it looks like Sanders could see an even larger portion of the rushing pie in two very favorable matchups against the Giants and Jets in Weeks 12 and 13. Additionally, the Eagles have become a run-first team. They lead the NFL in rush yards per game (217.5) by a large margin over their last four games.
Myles Gaskin, Miami Dolphins
This guy doesn't get nearly enough credit as a sure-fire RB2 in fantasy football. Currently, he's RB16 in PPR leagues. After up and down usage through the first six weeks of the season, Gaskin has seen his snap percentage normalize to around 67% the last five weeks. He's also gotten 26 touches in two of the last three games. In Week 11, he had a whopping (and season-high) eight red zone carries on an 81.2% RB opportunity share. The knock on Gaskin is that he only produces in odd weeks (1, 3, 5, 7, 9, 11). To this point, that has "oddly" enough been true, but don't hold that against him as his toughest matchups have come in even-numbered weeks (Buffalo x2, Indianapolis, Jacksonville, and Baltimore). He has another tough matchup in Week 12 vs. Carolina, but don't let that hold you back from plugging Gaskin into your lineup as a RB2. After that, he gets matchups at home against the Giants and the Jets.
Other Risers: Ty Johnson, Dontrell Hilliard, Rex Burkhead, Kadarius Toney, Logan Thomas
Fantasy Football Fallers for Week 12
Damien Harris, New England Patriots
Harris played on just 39% of the snaps in Week 11. That's not necessarily atypical for him when the Patriots are faced with a negative game script, but this game they won 25-0. What's more, rookie running back Rhamondre Stevenson was utilized throughout the game and saw a higher percentage of RB rush attempts (52.2%) than Harris. It was the first time this season that Harris had fewer carries than Stevenson, who has looked really impressive of late. The Patriots have some tough games coming up against Tennesee, Buffalo x 2, and Indianapolis, which means we could see even more of Stevenson and third-down specialist Brandon Bolden. Temper expectations on Harris, especially in PPR leagues.
Alex Collins, Seattle Seahawks
Collins took over as the "starter" in the Seahawks backfield in Week 5 after Chris Carson's neck injury. For a few weeks, he was a very serviceable RB2. Since Week 7 however, his snap share and percentage of the RB work has declined. That culminated in DeeJay Dallas playing on a season-high 37% of the snaps, the same as Collins. Dallas was also used on passing down situations, running 11 routes to Collins' three. Collins got more carries (10), but Dallas was far more effective with his touches, averaging 6.3 yards per carry and scoring a touchdown. Even with Rashaad Penny nursing a hamstring injury, we could see more Dallas moving forward, which would almost certainly render Collins more of a desperation flex play in most weeks given how stagnant the Seahawks offense has been lately.
Bryan Edwards, Las Vegas Raiders
I think it's time we finally pour one out for Bryan Edwards. Everyone thought Edwards could see more work after Henry Ruggs III's release prior to Week 9, but it just hasn't worked out for the second-year wideout. He's played a higher percentage of snaps (85.3%), but it hasn't translated into production. In Week 11, even with the Raiders playing from behind, Edwards didn't see even one target. This Las Vegas passing attack runs through Darren Waller, Hunter Renfrow, and now even Josh Jacobs. Edwards is a drop in most leagues unless you're playing in a league that rewards for a player simply being on the field and running routes.
T.J. Hockenson, Detroit Lions
As a backer of Hockenson all preseason, this one pains me to write. But at least the problem isn't Hockenson. Dan Campbell took over the playcalling in Week 10, and the Lions' star tight end has been utilized more as a blocker since then. In the last two games, he's averaging 4.5 targets on 21 routes run per game. In the eight games prior, Hockenson averaged 7.9 targets on 32.5 routes run per game. It's looking like Campbell wants to play smash-mouth football and run the ball as much as possible. In Week 10, the Lions ran the ball 60.9% of the time and in Week 11, they did so 50% of the time. In no other game this season did they run the ball more than 50% of the time. Hopefully, it's more game script than Campbell's playcalling, but that could be what keeps the Lions competitive in more games than not down the stretch. Hockenson can still be a low-end TE1, just don't expect top-5 TE production going forward.
Other Fallers: Kenny Golladay, Darrel Williams, Mike Davis, Jalen Reagor, Quez Watkins
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