RADIO
Top fantasy football risers and fallers heading into Week 11 of the 2021 NFL season. Adam Koffler identifies players whose trade values are rising or falling.
Week 10 is officially in the books. This week, the Bears, Bengals, Texans, and Giants are back in action, with just the Broncos and Rams on Bye.
In this weekly column, we'll look at players whose arrows may be pointing up, and players whose arrows may be pointing down based on the previous week's games. We'll try not to overreact, but instead, use relevant data to make informed decisions about these players.
Here are the key risers and fallers heading into Week 11 (and beyond) of the NFL season.
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Fantasy Football Risers for Week 11
Cam Newton, Carolina Panthers
"I'm baaaaackkkk, I'm baaaackkkkk" yelled Newton after finding paydirt in his first game of the 2021 season with the Carolina Panthers. He's expected to take the majority of the first-team reps in practice this week, and if he can get up to speed, he'll be starting in Week 11 against his former coach of nine years, Ron Rivera, and the Washington Football Team. Last season, Cam rushed for 592 yards and 12 touchdowns with the Patriots. The dual-threat ability makes him a very viable quarterback option for those that may have been hurting at the position. Consider him a high-end QB2 moving forward with all of the offensive weapons that surround him in Carolina.
Tyler Lockett, Seattle Seahawks
Despite catching just two passes for 23 yards, Lockett finds himself on the Risers list heading into Week 11. He led all receivers with 183 air yards, and while that didn't mean much for Week 10, it means a whole lot for future weeks. He also ran 47 routes (most on the team) on 97% of the snaps. Russell Wilson and the Seahawks' offense will be better moving forward, and Lockett should be a primary beneficiary of that.
Jamal Agnew, Jacksonville Jaguars
Agnew played on a season-high 76% of the snaps and ran 33 routes on 42 Trevor Lawrence dropbacks. That was just two fewer routes run than Laviska Shenault Jr. (35). He looks firmly entrenched as the Jaguars' slot receiver, which bodes well for his prospects moving forward as it's clear he's developed a chemistry with Trevor Lawrence in that role. Agnew has also gained the trust of the coaching staff, so much so that they're drawing up plays for him all over the field. Despite not catching a pass in Week 10, he had five targets for the fifth-straight game and also had three carries for 79 yards and a score. Agnew should be considered a low-end WR3 moving forward because of his ability to make plays in all facets of the game.
A.J. Dillon, Green Bay Packers
Aaron Jones is out 1-to-2 weeks with what is being called a mild MCL sprain. With the Packers on Bye in Week 13, the expectation is Jones won't be back before Week 14. That gives Dillon at least two full games as the workhorse back in Green Bay. In Week 10, he played on just 49% of the snaps but still managed to touch the ball 23 times (21 carries + two targets). It wouldn't be surprising to see him rack up close to 30 touches in both Weeks 11 and 12 without Jones in the picture.
James Conner, Arizona Cardinals
Conner looks like the workhorse back in Arizona until Chase Edmonds returns, and that's not until Week 14 at the earliest. That means Conner gets at least another two games where he'll see at least 75% of the snaps, and handle a majority of the carries and targets out of the backfield. Even with Eno Benjamin active, Conner still played on 82% of the snaps and ran 20 routes. He finished the game with just 10 carries and four targets as a result of the Cardinals having the ball for just 22 minutes compared to 38 minutes for the Panthers. Expect a much heavier workload in Week 11 vs. the division-rival Seahawks.
Other Risers: Javonte Williams, Antonio Gibson, D'Onta Foreman, Marcus Johnson, DeAndre Carter, Hunter Renfrow, Tyler Conklin
Fantasy Football Fallers for Week 11
CeeDee Lamb, Dallas Cowboys
CeeDee Lamb -- a faller -- after a 6-94-2 line against the Falcons? Yup, you bet. With Michael Gallup back in the mix, Lamb only played on 42% of the snaps. He suffered an arm contusion late in the game, but was mostly on the sidelines when the Cowboys ran 12-personnel (two tight ends). With a lot of winnable games on tap and a healthy Gallup in the lineup, Lamb's snaps (and routes run) could suffer a bit in some positive game scripts. I'm not necessarily saying to sell-high, but his snap share probably won't be north of 75% going forward and his routes run are likely to be lower now playing mostly out of the slot, especially if the Cowboys go more 12-personnel down the stretch.
Emmanuel Sanders, Buffalo Bills
Yes, this game got out of hand quickly, but Sanders played on a season-low 60% of the snaps and saw a season-low two targets. In comparison, Gabriel Davis played on a season-high 52% of the snaps and finished the game with 105 total yards on three catches. Cole Beasley only played nine snaps in this one due to his rib injury, but it looks like Stefon Diggs has regained his alpha role and Davis could be eating into Sanders' target share. After a hot start, Sanders is averaging just two catches for 30.7 yards in his last three games.
Rondale Moore, Arizona Cardinals
After playing on a season-high 81% of the snaps in Week 9 with A.J. Green out, Rondale Moore played on just 33% of the snaps in Week 10. He did see four targets on just 12 routes run, which is a fantastic targets per route run (TPRR) of 33%. But if he's not going to play over Green and Antoine Wesley, then he's not doing us any good on our fantasy teams. He can be safely dropped with all of the Cardinal pass-catchers now seemingly healthy and in the fold. DeAndre Hopkins could also very well return to action in Week 11, which would be yet another roadblock to Moore's playing time.
Zack Moss, Buffalo Bills
Moss cleared the concussion protocol ahead of Week 10 but came back to just 48% of the snaps and just 43.8% of the RB carries. He didn't see a single target in the win while Devin Singletary and Matt Breida combined to see four targets. Moss was starting to look like a solid RB2 between Weeks 3-8 but has since come back down to earth and now this Bills backfield looks as messy as ever.
Melvin Gordon, Denver Broncos
The Broncos have a bye in Week 11, but it feels like Javonte Williams is set to become the 1A in this backfield in Week 12. Gordon played on a season-low 43% of the snaps in Week 10 and had a season-low 10 touches. Meanwhile, Williams played on a season-high 57% of the snaps and also had 10 touches on the day. Gordon also ran just 15 routes to Williams' 21. Gordon's fumble late in the 3rd quarter that resulted in a Darius Slay touchdown could just be the nail in the coffin for his fantasy value down the stretch. And since Gordon is a faller, it only makes sense to say Williams should be considered a riser and is a guy who you should be actively targeting ahead of a very favorable schedule coming out of the bye.
Other Fallers: Courtland Sutton, Mecole Hardman, Adrian Peterson, Mike Davis, Brandon Bolden
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