RADIO
Like the seasons, the fantasy football market is ever-changing. Regardless of your league, they have unique scoring systems that change how we view the value of the players on our rosters. Staying on top of these values is difficult, but if one can read the market, one can give themselves a distinct advantage over the competition.
We all have "My Guys" players to whom we attach a little extra value because we either like them or because we roster them. Trying to remove the emotional aspect of trade negotiations can be difficult. That is why I have gone ahead and done the heavy lifting with my Dynasty Trade Chart.
Consider this your guide to Fantasy Wall Street -- another tool for your toolbox. As a reminder, trade charts and calculators are but a small part of the equation for calculating player values and should be used as such. They offer a template in which managers can begin negotiations.
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With any trade chart, you need to establish a baseline. In a dynasty format, everything comes back to the draft. However, the thing with draft picks is that the value changes throughout the season, so we are working with a moving baseline and must then adjust the trade chart to reflect such.
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As pointed out by Erik Kortz (@ekballer), the cycle of picks/player value changes from preseason to the regular season. From the NFL Combine until you are on the clock in those rookie drafts. Like draft picks, players on your roster hold more value significantly closer to your league's trade deadline and the fantasy playoffs. It's about maximizing your return on investment and gauging the market accordingly.
Trade charts are living documents. One that changes as the market readjusts, which, as you can see, is a constant. Right now, we are in what is considered a neutral phase. One is not actively buying picks or selling players as the perceived value for either is stable. With that in mind, when looking at the chart and assigning values, I must first evaluate my top-end players across all positions.
Instead of ranking them, I start by tiering them off, as it adds what I like to call a 10% buffer in their values. Fantasy football tiers help us see gaps that we can't see in rankings and allow us to maximize the value of players and picks. For example, most people have Josh Allen as their top quarterback, while others view Patrick Mahomes or even C.J. Stroud as being that guy. Understanding that managers can view any of these players as the top option allows me to assign proper value based on potential draft capital.
Justin Boone once said, "The easiest way to start from scratch, in my opinion, would be to determine values for rookie picks. Then, use that as a guide for every player. Would you trade Player X for a mid-first? Late-first?"
Once the tiering is complete, it's time to review those draft picks. How many firsts would it take for me to trade Josh Allen? Is this a Superflex league or a standard league? Again, values change based on roster size and scoring. What about Tight End Premium versus PPR? Well, there's a formula that adds value to top-tier tight ends better to reflect their value against their wide receiver peers.
Now What?
Now, we have our tiers. We have established the value of top-end fantasy assets versus draft compensation; we do that with the rest of the player pool. For example, Deebo Samuel Sr. has a value of 42, which puts him in a wide receiver tier along with DK Metcalf, Tank Dell, Rashee Rice, and George Pickens.
Any four of those receivers I'd be willing to trade a mid-to-late first to acquire, which has their value in the 1.08 to 1.11 range for rookie picks in this year's draft or a mid-first if looking to 2025. That group of pass-catchers holds more value in PPR formats.
Still, a good group of backs you can expect to acquire for any of those receivers is that group in the 40-43 range, including Saquon Barkley, De'Von Achane, Kenneth Walker III, and even James Cook.
You can continue adding players to balance the equation with any calculator or chart. Bijan Robinson has an assigned value here of 80. That doesn't mean you should accept a deal that includes Joe Mixon, Brian Robinson Jr., and Troy Franklin, even though the "value" is close. That, my friends, is "putting lipstick on a pig." You can put lipstick on a pig; at the end of the day, it's still a pig.
Dynasty Trade Chart
Make sure you use the navigation bars to scroll right, left, up, and down to see all positions and draft picks.
Fantasy Football Players You Should Target
Diontae Johnson, WR - Carolina Panthers
Things in Pittsburgh took a strange turn last season. Especially after that incident on November 26 against the Bengals in which he seemed disinterested in attempting to recover a fumble. But that was then, and we are talking about it now. Johnson has been in the league for five years, and perhaps he is devalued in dynasty because of the old player fatigue we as managers suffer from. Truthfully, Johnson is in the prime of his career at 27, entering just his sixth season.
Historically speaking, receivers increase their baseline fantasy production in Years 5 and 6 and continue to produce until they hit that age curve around season 10. Ryan Heath of Fantasy Points has an excellent age curve article that goes deeper into this.
Johnson is always open. Johnson's Open Score of 92 was the premier marker among wide receivers since 2021, per ESPN Analytics. Carolina receivers struggled to create separation last season, and they are among the worst in the league. Yet, a 32-year-old Adam Thielen averaged 10.8 targets per game between Weeks 2-11 and was a top-10 WR in fantasy.
Johnson's success rate against man and press coverage has been over 75% in the last four years. His success rate against zone coverage is even better, with 82.8% being his worst over those four years. Last season, Johnson managed to catch 51 passes on 87 targets for 717 yards despite some inconsistent play at the quarterback position; however, the previous three seasons saw Johnson targeted on 144, 169, and 147 occasions, meaning he's getting open.
Johnson is currently sitting in that WR40-45 range in dynasty rankings, which means he is overlooked and undoubtedly underappreciated. According to the trade chart, you can acquire Johnson for an early-round pick or give up a running back such as David Montgomery, Tony Pollard, or Tyjae Spears.
Johnson not only helps you win now but also costs very little and provides an excellent return on investment beyond 2024.
Marquise Brown, WR - Kansas City Chiefs
Like Johnson, Marquise Brown feels like a player who has been in the league for 10-plus seasons. Just like Johnson, Brown entered the league in 2019. He's also missed around half a season thanks to injuries, another reason some considered him a depreciating asset.
Brown has seen his stock increase thanks to the "Patrick Mahomes Effect," where we automatically boost any receiver who can catch a ball from Mahomes up our ranks. Unfortunately, that wasn't the case in Kansas City last year, as its WR1 has seen just a 59.2% route share on team dropbacks, while the second receiver in the offense saw just a 52.5% route share.
I'm not worried about any of that entering 2024. Brown brings back something to this offense that hasn't been there since the team dealt away Tyreek Hill. At 27 years of age, Brown has plenty to offer fantasy managers beyond this season. Brown checks that box for speed but offers you much more. Looking at his Reception Perception profile, you'll notice that he has made a living on those intermediate in-breaking routes and has been productive, especially when facing zone coverage.
When Brown was healthy in Arizona, he showed he could be a top fantasy receiver, finishing with 1,000 yards in 2021 and then in 2022; before injuries caught up with him, he was on pace for 120 receptions and 1,300 yards.
The truth is, this will be the first time we have seen Brown in a pass-first offense. In Baltimore, he played under Greg Roman, who threw the ball just 51% of the time, which was 29th in the league. In Arizona, the Cardinals passed roughly 54% of the time, in the middle of the pack. Now, the Chiefs have led the league in pass rate in each of the last five seasons, passing at least 64% of the time.
Brown is one of those guys I like versus the consensus. I have him in my dynasty ranks as WR38 with WR24-type upside, whereas the consensus has his value around that WR45-50 range. He is another veteran you can add for the cost of a second- round pick or an RB3 off your current roster.
Trevor Lawrence, QB - Jacksonville Jaguars
Trevor Lawrence's inclusion here is more about showing you the cost to acquire in 1QB leagues versus Superflex leagues. Lawrence was once considered a generational talent, but now he's getting that generational type of money, and fantasy managers need help to see why.
Why has Lawrence's value dipped to an all-time low? The truth is, he's been mediocre, at best. Dare I say he's been Blake Bortles-esque. Now, hear me out. Through 50 career starts, Lawrence (11,770 yards) has thrown for 145 passing yards fewer than Bortles (11,845). His 58 touchdown passes are 16 fewer than Bortles while the interception-to-touchdown ratio and the yards per attempt are nearly identical.
Looking back on last season, Lawrence battled through a rib injury and the inconsistency that was Calvin Ridley (so many drops). Ridley is no longer there. Jacksonville drafted Brian Thomas Jr. out of Wide Receiver University, or LSU, which will immediately impact this offense, especially down the field. It also gives Lawrence a young weapon to grow over the next 6-7 years. Throw in Christian Kirk, Evan Engram, and Travis Etienne, and this offense has the pieces to be very dangerous over the next few seasons.
Looking at the trade chart, Lawrence is more valuable in Superflex leagues where he is currently drafted as a late QB1 or a QB2 with upside. Suppose you are looking to acquire him in a Superflex league. In that case, it will likely cost a first-round pick and a second-round pick or a first, along with a young prospect such as the aforementioned Brian Thomas Jr. or Keon Coleman. In 1QB/PPR leagues, if you are looking for a starting quarterback with upside, it will likely only cost someone like Josh Jacobs or Zay Flowers to add Lawrence to your lineup.
Every trade calculator needs to be fixed. Every trade chart is flawed. No matter how hard we try, we will never remove the human element from fantasy sports; that's the truth. However, charts like this allow us to communicate openly with our league mates. It allows us to look honestly at how a player is valued.
When I look at this particular chart, I understand it must be updated daily to capture what the fantasy market is doing. Savvy managers understand it's a delicate dance to maximize their assets, knowing when to hold them, and when to walk away. A chart such as this one gives us a look into how the market looks and a better understanding of a reasonable offer and what kind of offer may shut down trade talks before they even begin.
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