X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Value Picks
Compare Any Players
News and Alerts

So Much for Regression: 2019 Breakouts Continued

Justin Carter examines breakout players from last fantasy football season who are off to hot starts and may not show regression in 2020 as expected.

Sometimes, players do things that seem unsustainable, and before the next season, the analysis community universally goes "yeah, they're regressing."

But what happens when those players just... don't regress?

Through two games, we're seeing some examples of players who are sustaining things we didn't think were sustainable. Let's look at some of those things.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy football rankings for 2025:

 

Lamar Jackson's Touchdown Rate

Lamar Jackson threw touchdowns on nine percent of his passes last season.

That tied him for the second-highest single-season mark of this century, behind 2004 Peyton Manning's 9.9 percent and tied with Aaron Rodgers. Sustaining a touchdown rate that high is incredibly difficult. There's only been 140 seasons in the entire history of this league where a player's rate was even seven percent.

So, through two games, 2020 Lamar Jackson is at 8.2 percent, which is still really, really good.

Sure, he only ranks tied for fourth through two games, but he's still throwing touchdowns on a very high percentage of his passes.

Why? Because of the way the Ravens play. Jackson's such a huge threat with his legs, which warps a lot of things for the defense and leads to more chances for scoring throws. He's also got a really good red zone threat in tight end Mark Andrews, which helps.

Jackson can be selective on what throws he takes, which should mean that he's able to keep sustaining this touchdown rate.

 

Ryan Tannehill!

Let's just do a quick rundown of where Ryan Tannehill ranked in some things last year:

  • first in passer rating
  • first in adjusted yards per pass attempt
  • first in adjusted net yards per pass attempt
  • third in completion percentage
  • second in touchdown percentage

Let's see where he currently ranks in those same things this year:

  • fourth in passer rating
  • seventh in adjusted yards per pass attempt
  • sixth in adjusted net yards per pass attempt
  • ninth in completion percentage
  • third in touchdown percentage

Technically, his rank in each of those categories is worse than it was last year. But Tannehill is still maintaining a high level of play, and if the narrative around him this offseason was that he was bound to regress in an offense that lacked a lot of weapons, it looks like that...might be wrong.

And like with Jackson, two things have helped Tannehill a lot this year. First, his team's run game. Sure, Tannehill isn't as involved as a scramber as Jackson, but he has an elite running back in Derrick Henry to take pressure off of him, and he also has a really good tight end receiving threat. Maybe the secret to quarterback efficiency is to have a tight end who can do this:

Mismatches: they can really help your quarterback's numbers!

 

Everything About Aaron Jones

Aaron Jones tied Derrick Henry for the rushing touchdown lead and Christian McCaffrey for the overall touchdown lead in 2019 despite not finishing in the top 10 in rushing yards.

His 11 touchdowns on carries inside the 10 was tied for the league lead, but he has just 19 carries inside the 10, while the other three players tied had at least 29 each.

That means Jones scored a touchdown on 57.9 percent of his carries inside the 10. [eye emojis]

He's only scored on 25 percent of his carries inside the 10 this year, but he has gotten 80 percent of Green Bay's work inside the 10-yard-line, so that percentage of touchdowns should rise. He's still getting the type of work that led to his big 2019 campaign, and he's tied for fifth in the NFL in first down runs. His 6.9 yards per attempt are tied for second and he's averaging 117 yards per game.

Jones is actually a very good running back. 2019 was not a fluke.

 

Diontae Johnson's Target Share

With a healthy and very good JuJu Smith-Schuster back, it seemed that Diontae Johnson would see his workload on this Steelers offense drop off.

In 2019, Johnson and Smith-Schuster both took 573 offensive snaps, and Johnson led the team with a 19.09 target percentage, with Smith-Schuster at 14.52 percent. He also had a higher air yards percentage than Smith-Schuster, though both trailed James Washington in that number.

The numbers essentially said Johnson was the No. 1 receiver in Pittsburgh last year.

This season, Johnson's role is growing. He's been outsnapped by Smith-Schuster 114-109, but has gotten a 31.94 target share, with Smith-Schuster trailing at 19.44 percent. He's also jumped to the lead in air yards:

I know everyone loves Smith-Schuster. I also love Smith-Schuster. But Diontae Johnson is currently being used like a No. 1 receiver for the Steelers, which is also how he was used last year. That trend from last season is fully playing out now that the Steelers have Ben Roethlisberger back on the football field.

 

Mike Gesicki's Air Yards

In 2019, Dolphins tight end Mike Gesicki finished fourth among tight ends in air yards in a pass-happy Miami offense. He had 16.14 percent of the team's air yards and an aDOT of 9.9.

This year, Gesicki is currently leading all tight ends in air yards and has 31.1 percent of the Dolphins air yards. His aDOT is 11.

Gesicki's career got off to a slow start, but last year there were signs that the former second-round pick was on his way to being a top-tier tight end due to his down-field usage.

And in 2020, that's proving to be true.

In Week 2, Gesicki set the Dolphins team record for receiving yards in a game by a tight end with 130. He continues to be a threat in the deep passing game and is getting a lot of opportunities to pile up yardage because of his air yards.

If you thought that Gesicki's performance last season wasn't indicative of who he'd be in 2020, it's looking like you miscalculated something, as he continues to play an expanded version of his 2019 role.



Download Our Free News & Alerts Mobile App

Like what you see? Download our updated fantasy football app for iPhone and Android with 24x7 player news, injury alerts, rankings, starts/sits & more. All free!

More Fantasy Football Analysis




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Value Picks
Compare Any Players
News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Francisco Lindor11 mins ago

Returns To The Lineup On Tuesday
Detroit Lions24 mins ago

Alim McNeill Could Miss Start Of Regular Season
Christian Encarnacion-Strand26 mins ago

Not In Reds Lineup Tuesday
Jesse Chavez45 mins ago

DFA'd, Braves Select Zach Thompson To MLB Roster
Tennessee Titans49 mins ago

Justin Hardee Sr. Returning To Titans
Washington Commanders55 mins ago

Brandon Coleman Moving To Right Tackle For Commanders
Adam Ottavino1 hour ago

And Yankees Agree On One-Year Deal
Raheem Blackshear1 hour ago

Returning To Carolina
Kirk Cousins1 hour ago

Not Expected To Attend Voluntary Offseason Training
NFL1 hour ago

NFL Ownership Votes To Move Kickoff Touchbacks To 35-Yard Line
Olli Määttä1 hour ago

Olli Maatta A Game-Time Call On Tuesday
Jordan Greenway1 hour ago

Remains Sidelined On Tuesday
Dallas Cowboys2 hours ago

Cowboys Willing To Make Micah Parsons The Highest-Paid Non-QB
Jordan Staal2 hours ago

Doubtful For Wednesday
Matt Roy2 hours ago

Not Traveling With Team
Geno Smith2 hours ago

Raiders Working On Extension With Geno Smith
Chris Godwin2 hours ago

Buccaneers Optimistic Chris Godwin Will Be Ready For Week 1
Josh Norris2 hours ago

Not Traveling With The Team On Tuesday
Los Angeles Rams2 hours ago

Coleman Shelton Expected To Start Again In 2025
Brady Tkachuk2 hours ago

Not Playing On Tuesday
Los Angeles Rams2 hours ago

Rams Open To Drafting A Quarterback
Kyren Williams2 hours ago

Rams To Discuss Long-Term Deal With Kyren Williams
Aaron Rodgers2 hours ago

Signs "Pointing" Toward Aaron Rodgers Signing With Steelers
Brock Purdy2 hours ago

49ers Optimistic On Getting Extension Done With Brock Purdy
Sam Hilliard3 hours ago

Outrighted To Triple-A Albuquerque
Trea Turner3 hours ago

Appears As Pinch-Hitter On Monday
Dominic Smith3 hours ago

Returning To Yankees On Minor-League Deal
Lance Lynn3 hours ago

Announces His Retirement
Michael Petersen3 hours ago

Angels Designate Michael Petersen For Assignment
Devin Williams3 hours ago

Yankees Place Devin Williams On Paternity List
Hogan Harris3 hours ago

Optioned To Triple-A
Jordan Spieth4 hours ago

Needs To Find Consistency At TPC San Antonio
Yu-Min Lin4 hours ago

Set To Participate In Extended Spring Training
Joe Elbis4 hours ago

Opening Season On Double-A Injured List
Jake Knapp4 hours ago

Making First Appearance At Valero Texas Open
Michael Kim4 hours ago

Looking To Find The Magic Again In San Antonio
Tommy Fleetwood4 hours ago

Is Nearly A Must-Play At Valero Texas Open
Tony Finau4 hours ago

Hoping For Better Approach Play In San Antonio
Eric Cole5 hours ago

Trending In Right Direction Ahead Of Valero
Randy Arozarena5 hours ago

Smashes Second Homer Of The Season
Luke Raley6 hours ago

Goes Yard In Mariners Loss
Michael Busch6 hours ago

Homers And Picks Up Four RBI On Monday
Cole Anthony6 hours ago

Listed As Questionable For Tuesday
Kyle Tucker6 hours ago

Homers In Third Straight Game
Jerami Grant6 hours ago

Likely To Miss Another Game Tuesday
Carson Kelly6 hours ago

Completes Cycle To Carry Cubs
Anfernee Simons6 hours ago

Iffy For Tuesday's Game
Garrett Crochet6 hours ago

Agrees To Six-Year Extension With The Red Sox
Scoot Henderson6 hours ago

Unavailable Tuesday
Deandre Ayton6 hours ago

Out Against Hawks
AJ Green7 hours ago

May Miss Another Game Tuesday
Thomas Harrington7 hours ago

Making MLB Debut On Tuesday
Kyle Lowry7 hours ago

Picks Up A Questionable Tag
Tyrese Maxey7 hours ago

Remains Out Against Knicks
Quentin Grimes7 hours ago

Good To Go Tuesday
Teoscar Hernández7 hours ago

Teoscar Hernandez Goes Deep On Monday
Casey DeSmith8 hours ago

Sharp In Monday's Victory
Mason Marchment8 hours ago

Tallies Two Helpers On Monday
Adam Klapka8 hours ago

Tallies Two Points In Shootout Victory
Ivan Fedotov9 hours ago

Sharp Against Nashville
Matvei Michkov9 hours ago

Continues Hot Stretch On Monday
Luke Hughes9 hours ago

Scores Goal, Adds Assist In Victory
Sam Stevens17 hours ago

Enjoys Nice Result In Houston
PGA18 hours ago

J.T. Poston Seeks To Contend At Valero Texas Open
Ochai Agbaji18 hours ago

Resting On Tuesday
RJ Barrett18 hours ago

To Be Rested Tuesday Night
Immanuel Quickley18 hours ago

Returning To Action Against Bulls
Jakob Poeltl18 hours ago

Available On Tuesday
Jonathan Kuminga18 hours ago

Uncertain For Tuesday's Game
Christian Braun18 hours ago

Listed As Probable For Meeting With Timberwolves
Aaron Gordon18 hours ago

Tagged As Questionable For Tuesday
Jamal Murray18 hours ago

Iffy For Tuesday
LeBron James19 hours ago

Ready To Play Against Rockets
Nikola Jokić19 hours ago

Nikola Jokic Expected To Play Against Timberwolves
Trae Young19 hours ago

Likely To Face Portland
Bradley Beal19 hours ago

Could Return On Tuesday
Denny McCarthy19 hours ago

Keeps Making Cuts But Needs To Make More Putts
Brian Harman20 hours ago

Off To A Subpar 2025 So Far
Ilya Samsonov21 hours ago

Nursing An Upper-Body Injury
Tomas Hertl22 hours ago

To Sit Out At Least One More Week
Garnet Hathaway22 hours ago

Rejoins Flyers Lineup
Erik Johnson22 hours ago

Available Monday
Rasmus Ristolainen22 hours ago

Not Expected To Return This Season
Ryan Preece22 hours ago

Has Three Straight Top-10 Finishes For First Time In His Career
Colton Sissons22 hours ago

Likely Out For Rest Of The Season
NASCAR22 hours ago

Bubba Wallace After Third-Place Finish At Martinsville: "What a Great Day"
Jonathan Marchessault22 hours ago

Day-To-Day With Lower-Body Injury
Todd Gilliland22 hours ago

Has Mistake-Free Day At Martinsville, Grabs Another Top-10 Finish
Brandon Moreno23 hours ago

Wins Back-To-Back Fights
Steve Erceg23 hours ago

Losses Third Consecutive Fight
Drew Dober23 hours ago

Gets Knocked Out At UFC Mexico City
Manuel Torres23 hours ago

Gets Back In The Win Column
Harry Hall23 hours ago

Bounces Back In Houston Last Week
Denver Broncos23 hours ago

Denver To Take A Running Back In The Draft
CJ Vergara23 hours ago

Gets Submitted
Ryan Fox23 hours ago

Showing Improvement Heading Into The Valero Texas Open
Édgar Cháirez23 hours ago

Edgar Chairez Gets Submission Win At UFC Mexico City
Courtland Sutton23 hours ago

"No Timeline" On Courtland Sutton Extension
Vince Morales23 hours ago

Drops Decision At UFC Mexico City
Raul Rosas Jr.24 hours ago

Gets Decision Win At UFC Mexico City
New York Jets24 hours ago

Jets To Wait On Contract Extensions For Garrett Wilson, Sauce Gardner
Saimon Oliveira24 hours ago

Still Winless In The UFC
David Martinez24 hours ago

Wins His UFC Debut
Jameson Williams24 hours ago

Detroit To Exercise Jameson Williams' Fifth-Year Option
Kevin Borjas1 day ago

Earns His First UFC Win
Brandon Aiyuk1 day ago

49ers Expected To Hold Brandon Aiyuk
Ronaldo Rodríguez1 day ago

Ronaldo Rodriguez Suffers His First UFC Loss
Joel Dahmen1 day ago

Scores Top-20 Finish At Texas Children's Houston Open
Jacob Bridgeman1 day ago

Had Some Rest Heading Into The Valero
Sami Valimaki1 day ago

Finishes Fourth At Texas Children's Houston Open
Maverick McNealy1 day ago

Finishes Tied For 32nd At Texas Children’s Houston Open
Tom Kim1 day ago

Finishes Tied For 36th At Valspar Championship
Rickie Fowler1 day ago

Finishes Tied For 52nd At Texas Children’s Houston Open
Bud Cauley1 day ago

Finishes Tied For Fourth At Valspar Championship
Sam Burns1 day ago

Misses The Cut At Valspar Championship
Daniel Berger1 day ago

Finishes Tied For 20th At The PLAYERS Championship
Treylon Burks1 day ago

Unlikely To Be Ready For Training Camp
Keenan Allen1 day ago

Chargers Not Ruling Out Reuniting With Keenan Allen
Christopher Bell1 day ago

Powers His Way To A Second-Place Finish At Martinsville
Chase Elliott1 day ago

Strong Martinsville Performance Ends With A Top-Five Finish
Kyle Larson1 day ago

Collects A Top-Five Finish At Martinsville
William Byron1 day ago

Places 22nd After Struggles At Martinsville
Joey Logano1 day ago

Claims His First 2025 Top-10 Finish After Up-And-Down Performance
Tyler Reddick1 day ago

Fails To Place In The Top 10 At Martinsville
Joseph Woll1 day ago

Stands Tall On Sunday
UTA1 day ago

Alex Kerfoot Leads The Way In Sunday's Victory
Denny Hamlin1 day ago

Silences Doubters After Crew-Chief Change
Ty Gibbs1 day ago

Earns Best 2025 Finish At Martinsville Despite Failing Cool Suit
Ross Chastain1 day ago

Has A Great Day At Martinsville
Chase Briscoe1 day ago

Has Solid Run At Martinsville
Erik Jones1 day ago

Disqualified At Martinsville For Weight Violation
Josh Berry2 days ago

Has Top-10 Upside At Martinsville
Joey Logano2 days ago

Don't Overlook Joey Logano This Weekend
Ryan Preece2 days ago

Could Get First Three-Race Top-10 Streak Of His Career
Chase Elliott2 days ago

Looking To Continue Great Runs At Martinsville
Christopher Bell2 days ago

Wins Pole At Martinsville, But Can He Stay Up There?
Ryan Blaney2 days ago

Fast In Practice But Skeptical About Car
Denny Hamlin2 days ago

New Crew Chief Has Terrible Martinsville Record
Steve Erceg4 days ago

Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
Brandon Moreno4 days ago

A Favorite At UFC Mexico City
Manuel Torres4 days ago

Set For Co-Main Event
Drew Dober4 days ago

An Underdog At UFC Mexico City
Joe Pyfer4 days ago

Looks To Win Back-To-Back Fights
Kelvin Gastelum4 days ago

Set For Middleweight Matchup
Vince Morales4 days ago

In Dire Need Of Victory
Raul Rosas Jr.4 days ago

Looks To Extend His Win Streak
Saimon Oliveira4 days ago

Looks For His First UFC Win
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF