Fantasy Football Breakouts, Busts, And Locks - San Francisco 49ers 2022 Outlook

July 25, 2022

Every year there are breakout, bust, and lock players in fantasy football. Josh Constantinou identifies one player for each category on the San Francisco 49ers.

Welcome to fantasy football Breakouts, Busts, and Locks, a series on RotoBaller where our writers look at three key players on each NFL team. Today, we're talking about the San Francisco 49ers.

The 49ers rode Jimmy Garoppolo into the playoffs and made it all the way to NFC Championship before losing to the eventual Super Bowl champion Rams, by a score of 20-17. This is the second time in three years they've reached this mark, yet the changing of the guard at quarterback now seems inevitable. With Trey Lance as the presumed starter in 2022 and Deebo Samuel still demanding a contract extension, there is a lot of uncertainty among this team. That said, there are still plenty of players fantasy managers are excited about, three of which will be discussed in more depth.

Below, you'll find a fantasy football breakout candidate, a fantasy football bust candidate, and a fantasy football lock for the 49ers based on early ADP for fantasy football drafts in 2022.

Fantasy Football Breakout: Trey Lance

The Lance hype train left the station last preseason and continues to gain traction. While the hype has continued to drive his ADP higher and higher, Lance possesses an incredible ceiling given his elite rushing upside.

Rushing Ability

In the two games Lance was named the starter last season, he threw for 441 yards, two passing touchdowns, and one interception while adding 120 rushing yards. Obviously, this is a very small sample size and although the passing statistics were subpar the rushing yards were very impressive. Averaging 60 rushing yards per game is possible for Lance, which would project as 1,020 yards over a full season.

This sets him up as one of the only quarterbacks in the NFL not named Lamar Jackson that offers this level of elite rushing production, making him a potential cheat code for fantasy.

Additionally, he has the ability to score rushing touchdowns, particularly on designed runs in the red zone like this one against the Packers. This was also his first career touchdown.

This time he successfully reads the defense on an RPO (run-pass option) play and takes it in for a touchdown against the Raiders.

The 49ers utilize a tremendous amount of pre-snap motion to cause confusion for defenses. This is why the unpredictability of Lance with his exceptional athleticism and versatility is a perfect match for the 49ers' rushing attack.

College Production

Unfortunately, Lance only played one game in his final season at college due to the COVID-pandemic but his one full season as a starter was memorable.

2019 Sophomore Year

Posting nearly 4,000 combined yards and 42 combined touchdowns showcases the kind of production he could have as an NFL starter. This is what enticed the 49ers to trade away multiple draft picks and move up to acquire Lance at No. 3 overall.

Talent

The high draft capital and all-in approach the 49ers took is an indication of the talent they believe he has.

Pro Football Focus (PFF) provides positional grades that are recognized as a reliable measure of talent. While it would be unfair to utilize his 2021 NFL grades because he only played two games, he graded very well in his one full season at college finishing with a grade of 90.7, in large part from his passer rating, which was 130.4. For reference, a perfect passer rating is 158.3, so finishing an entire season only 28 points below that is magnificent.

ADP

Lance is currently being drafted as the QB14 with an ADP ranging between 98 and 111 overall, depending on which platform or site you check. Although this has certainly risen, it still allows you to stockpile players at other positions before grabbing Lance, who will undoubtedly finish higher than the QB14 and possesses top-five upside.

Fantasy Football Bust: Brandon Aiyuk

Aiyuk entered the league in 2020 as part of a loaded draft class and ended up being selected 25th overall by the 49ers. Having just made a run to the Super Bowl and lost to Kansas City, they appeared to be adding another versatile weapon in an attempt to hoist the Lombardi trophy in 2021.

While Aiyuk has shown flashes of brilliance, he's been very inconsistent and arguably a worse pick than some of the other receivers drafted after him, including Tee Higgins and Michael Pittman Jr.

Production

In his rookie season, he took a couple of games to become involved and then began to hit his stride, especially toward the end of the year when injury struck his teammates Samuel and George Kittle. His overall production was very encouraging for a rookie.

2020 Season

His involvement in the rushing and receiving game was particularly intriguing, finishing as the WR33 in half-PPR. This provided a lot of excitement and optimism for him, causing his ADP to rise dramatically entering last season.

The primary concern was that from Week 8 onward, one of Samuel or Kittle was injured, including four games where they were both out. This correlated with Aiyuk producing five of his six best games for fantasy all year, averaging 17.6 fantasy points in half-PPR compared to his season average of 12.8. This left many fantasy managers wondering how he would perform when everyone was healthy.

2021 Season

Finishing as the WR36 in half-PPR was obviously a very disappointing result, in large part because the expectations were so high. The lack of involvement in the rushing game correlated with Samuel taking on more of that role and he did indeed have fewer blowup performances with his teammates healthy.

It was a strange year though for Aiyuk who was really not involved in the offensive game plan until Week 8.  What was even odder was that Kittle missed time due to injury in Weeks 5 and 7, which should have increased his opportunity and workload.

There were reports about him being in head coach Kyle Shanahan's "doghouse" and needing to "earn back his role," which he had seemingly lost to Trent Sherfield. This had shades of former 49ers wide receiver Dante Pettis, who was also a fantasy darling but ended up being a one-hit-wonder.

Fortunately, Aiyuk was eventually able to return to fantasy relevance for the second half of the season, providing fantasy managers with some usable weeks although he remained inconsistent down the stretch.

2022 Outlook

After the rollercoaster ride fantasy managers experienced last season, there are mixed feelings about Aiyuk within the community. This is further amplified by the impending transition at quarterback, coupled with recent news reports, creating additional uncertainty and cause for concern.

In a recent report, the RotoBallers news team broke, Aiyuk and Lance were described as not being on the same page and it was fellow teammate Ray-Ray McCloud who was making play after play in practice instead of Aiyuk. You can read the Full News Post here.

Admittedly, it is only mid-July and we have yet to reach training camps, but this is not the confidence-boosting report you are hoping for as a fantasy manager, especially after he struggled to earn a starting role to begin last season.

Quarterback Change

After describing Lance as a breakout above, there's no question he is a better quarterback than Garoppolo but that has a lot to do with his rushing ability and potential for big plays, rather than his passing repertoire.

Garoppolo has played two full seasons for the 49ers including 2019 and last season, producing pretty solid passing statistics.

Garoppolo Passing Statistics

During his two campaigns as their starter, he produced almost 4,000 passing yards and would have paced for 25+ touchdowns each season. Additionally, he had a very high completion percentage demonstrating his accuracy, while maintaining a higher yards per attempt average, finishing with 8.6, the second-highest in the NFL last year.

As mentioned above, in his one full season at North Dakota State, Lance totaled 2,786 passing yards and 28 passing touchdowns while averaging only 18 passing attempts per game. Furthermore, in the two games he played last season, he averaged 26 passing attempts.

Volume

What becomes evident is that the passing volume, yardage, and touchdowns for the 49ers receiving core will at best remain similar but more realistically decrease. This will impact the entire receiving core but even more so players like Aiyuk who is not one of the top-two options on the team.

This team will remain committed to their rushing attack with only Kittle and Samuel likely to see sufficient volume to support their fantasy production.

ADP

Aiyuk is currently being drafted as the WR42, which is more reasonable given all the concerns; however, his ADP is 97 overall. This places him in a similar range as several other more exciting and preferable options such as Lance, Rashaad Penny, Christian Kirk, James Cook, and Kadarius Toney.

While it is possible that he puts together a season where he finishes in the WR30-40 range and outperforms his ADP, the players you want to target in these rounds are players that have built-in upside and can be difference makers for your fantasy team, which is not the case for Aiyuk.

Fantasy Football Lock: Elijah Mitchell

Even though there are a lot of fantasy-relevant players on this team, there aren't many to be confident in outside of Lance and Mitchell. Samuel and Kittle will take a hit in volume just like Aiyuk and their draft cost is very high, increasing their risk of busting.

The 49ers' lead back has changed on an almost weekly basis over the past few seasons. This has created tons of opportunities to stash later-round options and wait for them to get their shot.

This was until last season when Mitchell overtook second-round rookie Trey Sermon and replaced the injured Raheem Mostert. He earned the job immediately in Week 1 and was able to maintain the role throughout the entire season. Although he does not catch a lot of passes, his overall production was noteworthy, particularly for a rookie.

Production

2021 Season

His 1,100 all-purpose yards are fantastic, which included the eighth-most rushing yards in the league. Unfortunately, it was his touchdown total that limited his overall output. The good news is that there is an easy explanation, which includes two factors.

The first is that he only played 11 games, averaging about 0.5 touchdowns per game, meaning over a full season he would have projected to add three more.

The second, and perhaps more important, is that Samuel scored eight rushing touchdowns as a wide receiver! This will not be a mark he repeats in 2022, both because this is an absolute outlier in terms of productivity and because he expressed discontentment about being over-utilized as a running back, resulting in the team agreeing to line him up as a receiver in a similar way to how they did in 2020.

This means Mitchell could easily increase his touchdown total and overall fantasy finish as the RB25 in 2021.

Talent

Drafted 194th overall in the sixth round, most assumed Mitchell would be buried in the depth chart behind Mostert, Sermon, and Jeff Wilson Jr. In a Shanahan lead offense though, draft capital is really quite irrelevant as they frequently play their later round or even undrafted players over other options if they earn the job. This is important for Mitchell because in other systems he could be relegated back to the bench rather quickly if he were to struggle but the 49ers are more likely to stick with him.

Pro Football Focus (PFF) provides positional grades that are recognized as a reliable measure of talent. Mitchell received a 76.8 as his combined overall grade, ranking 18th among last year's running backs. When you consider that he accomplished this as a rookie and will continue to improve as a sophomore under the tutelage of Shanahan and the coaching staff, he becomes an exciting player with unlocked potential. 

Quarterback Change

The aforementioned transition to Lance has caused concern for many individuals within the fantasy community and understandably so. The research tends to suggest two strong correlations between highly mobile quarterbacks and the running back core.

The first is that it creates more space and rushing lanes for the running backs because the defenders have to prepare and account for the possibility that the quarterback could run the ball, delaying their pursuit of the ball-carrier. This certainly bodes well for Mitchell, who already averaged 4.7 yards per carry last season while producing some big splash plays.

The second is that the quarterback will vulture goal-line carries reducing the touchdown upside for the running backs. While this would figure to have a negative impact on Mitchell, there are two reasons to remain optimistic.

The first was already discussed, which is that Samuel produced an outrageous eight rushing touchdowns last year, which will regress and offer more opportunity for Mitchell.

The second is that Garoppolo actually accounted for three of their rushing touchdowns last season. This reduces the impact Lance taking away between four and eight touchdowns would have, making this less of a concern than most people think it will be.

Workload

The 49ers rushed the ball 499 times last season and are projected to match if not exceed that total in 2022. Mitchell, who finished with 207 of those, only had less than 17 carries in a game twice and averaged 18 carries per game. This would have been a full season pace of 306. Although his involvement in the passing game was sporadic, he caught 19 of the 20 targets he received demonstrating reliability when asked to take on that role.

Mitchell has the potential to combine for 300-plus touches (carries + receptions) if he can remain healthy and on the field, which granted will be the primary concern after missing six games due to injuries last season that included his neck, shoulder, finger, knee, and a concussion.

Almost every running back misses time from injury each year, so losing a game or two over the course of the season will not be detrimental as long as he can limit it to just that.

ADP

He is currently being drafted as the RB24 with an ADP of 57 overall, making him a perfect target because you can draft multiple players in the earlier rounds before acquiring him. Additionally, this is a spot he is destined to outperform and return value on even if he only plays 14-16 games, especially because of the top-12 upside he possesses given the expected positive touchdown regression and secure workload.

Conclusion

The 49ers will be a fascinating team for fantasy this year with plenty of impactful options that have a wide range of outcomes. This will lead to disappointment, excitement, and pleasant surprises. Consider each of the names above to ensure you experience more excitement and pleasant surprises than disappointment.

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