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Thunder Dan breaks down how certain NBA players saw their fantasy basketball value increase or decrease for the upcoming season during the preseason.
Last night wrapped up the final preseason games across the association and now teams have three more days to finish out their training camps and prepare for their first regular-season games.
You may have already drafted for your fantasy basketball leagues, and if that's the case then you won't be able to draft or avoid any of these players, but you could potentially add one through a trade or maybe even off the waiver wire.
And if you're league waits until the last few days before the season starts to draft (that's actually kind of cool) then you have the ability to soak up as much information from the offseason and preseason before making your final selections. We don't want to read too much into preseason statistics and performances, but we also can't ignore them either as some players really stood out and some teams' rotations started to look clearer. Let's see who gained or lost the most steam heading into the regular season based on their preseason play!
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Fantasy Basketball: Preseason Risers
If you weren't a believer in Maxey being a really reliable fantasy player and solid mid-round value before the preseason, you might be now. We saw him put up some incredibly efficient numbers for the Sixers and his ADP jumped up a few spots just in the last few weeks as a result.
There were a few games that Embiid and/or Harden sat out, sure, but there were also a few games in which the Sixers rolled out their projected starting five. Maxey averaged a cool 11.5 points, 1.5 steals, and 2.5 threes in only 20 minutes per game and he did it on 55% shooting from the floor! He's going to be awesome in 9-cat this season but is no longer as sneaky as he was just a few weeks ago thanks to his solid showing this preseason.
Mathurin was easily one of the most impressive rookies this preseason. He looked incredibly confident out there and demonstrated a variety of moves on offense, finishing with averages of 19.8 points on 48% shooting. He does most of his damage inside the three-point line, which is one knock on his fantasy game as he shot only 15% from deep. He also didn't do much other than rebound the ball, with only 1.3 assists and .5 steals. However, I am still intrigued by his athleticism and scoring ability. I think he will thrive off the bench for Indiana and at the end of the season, he could be unleashed at some point as a starter where he could post some big numbers. Buy low on him now while you can.
The Murray hype train was at full speed before he got sick and missed the final two games of the preseason for Sacramento. He came into camp as the Summer League MVP and showed flashes of excellence in two outings that reminded everyone of what he can do. He's my favorite for Rookie of the Year as I think his offensive game is much smoother and more fantasy-friendly than Paolo Banchero's.
In two games this preseason, Murray averaged 16.5 points, 4.5 boards, 2.0 steals, and 3.5 threes in 21.6 minutes off the bench. He might not start right away, but he's going to push for minutes with how good he is and his ADP has started to rise as more people became aware of how NBA-ready he looks. I think he's still a guy with top-50 upside, but there's no need to reach for him before say...pick 70-75, somewhere in that range.
I saved perhaps the most impressive performance for last. Tari Eason took the NBA preseason by storm, finishing with averages of 17.8 points, 9 rebounds, and 1.3 steals in only 23.8 minutes per game. Eric Gordon is scheduled to start ahead of him at SF, but Eason's huge lines nightly have everyone wondering just how long Houston can justify playing the one-dimensional veteran shooter Gordon over the dynamic Eason. Even if he comes off the bench, he's shown the ability to post really solid numbers on a per-minute basis, so his ADP has shot up in a big way lately as he's become a very popular pick late in drafts by managers who are willing to stash him and wait for the big breakout.
Fantasy Basketball: Preseason Fallers
Sengun finally had himself a game last night against Indiana as he posted the type of line that many who are drafting him in the 50-60 range are expecting. He finished with 12 points, 4 rebounds, 5 assists, 2 threes, 1 steal, and 2 blocks in 24 minutes. That across-the-board production on a per-minute basis last season is what had everyone so excited to draft him this year now that he's starting and Christian Wood is gone to Dallas.
But with rookies Tari Eason and Jabari Smith III now on the team and two high-usage guards in the lineup, too (Kevin Porter Jr. and Jalen Green) is there going to be enough to go around?
Sengun finished the preseason with averages of 9 points, 3 rebounds, and 3 assists in 20.7 minutes. That's a far cry from the type of production we saw from him off the bench last year. I think he will probably figure it out over the course of the season, but there is reason to believe he might now be over-drafted if his role is diminished at all.
Going to Detroit from Utah is probably one of the worst things that could have happened to Bojan in terms of his fantasy value. He was already a pretty one-dimensional player who was only giving you points, threes, and FT%. And now he's going to be in a timeshare with a bunch of younger players who Detroit sees as their future. There are some cool stories that have come out about how he has mentored some of the younger Pistons players, but you're not drafting him for his mentorship, are you?
He was pretty bad in preseason, too, with a terrible -15 +/- and he shot only 31.8% from the floor. I can't see him playing more than 24-26 minutes a night for this team, especially when they have multiple players at his position they want to get experience. I dropped him pretty far down my rankings and he was already way down there to begin with. Don't waste a late-round pick on an old guy with no upside.
Kessler was a guy that I was really high on coming into the preseason and I know my buddy Alex Burns was, too. His per-minute numbers at Auburn were fantastic from a rebounding and shot-blocking perspective and it looked like he may even have a shot at starting for a rebuilding Utah club. But the Jazz acquired Kelly Olynyk, Jarred Vanderbilt, and Lauri Markkanen this offseason, too, in trades and now Kessler finds himself coming off the bench and he could struggle to get enough minutes to be worth rostering.
I am still targeting him late in drafts, but I dropped him like 30 spots in my rankings as I could see Utah just rotate a bunch of guys in and out of their lineup this season in full tank mode.
Kessler didn't do enough with his minutes to really impress me or his coaches as he finished with just 9.5 points and 5.8 boards, and 1.5 blocks in 19 minutes. And his 55% free throw shooting is a major issue.
Simons's numbers in four preseason games weren't good and they reflect a bigger issue that I have with him as a fantasy player in his new role. He played 25 minutes game and posted just 12.5 points, 1.5 boards, and 2.5 assists. He had some solid numbers last year in Portland while Damian Lillard was out, and then CJ McCollum was traded. He wasn't efficient, but he was scoring and racking up assists as the point guard for a tanking team. Now he's being asked to play shooting guard next to a high-usage player, Lillard, who also does the majority of the ball-handling.
It just seems like he's not going to offer you much but points and threes this year, barring an injury to Dame. His usage rate was only 21% this preseason and he shot the ball poorly. His game was reliant on volume last year and it's just not going to be there this season. He's not the worst guy to grab late in drafts, but I wouldn't reach up past 100 for him and buyer beware, he looks like a hollow fantasy player this season.
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