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Every year there are breakout, bust, and lock players in fantasy basketball. Max Kulish identifies one player for each category on the San Antonio Spurs.
Remember when Gregg Popovich said, "[don't] bet us to win the NBA finals"? Well, turns out he knew what he was talking about! You don't have to like tanking, but you can't deny the results when it works, and it was a successful tank job for the Spurs since they landed basketball's most intriguing prospect in 20 years. Now, armed with Wembanyama and a slew of other young talent, what can Popovich do with this roster, and what does that translate to for fantasy purposes?
If you play fantasy football, you'll probably recognize the format here as we had a series of preseason NFL articles that followed the same outline. The idea here is to hone in on players from each team that we see as undervalued for the upcoming season or who are possibly being drafted too high this preseason.
In this piece, you'll find a fantasy basketball breakout candidate, a fantasy basketball bust candidate, and a fantasy basketball lock (think steady production and being drafted correctly) for the Phoenix Suns based on early ADP for fantasy basketball drafts for the 2023-2024 season. Be sure to follow me on Twitter / X (@Maxadelphia) for more fantasy basketball insight (amongst other things).
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Fantasy Basketball Breakout: Devin Vassell
This choice is so easy it almost feels like cheating. Vassell was quietly breaking out last year; averaging career highs across the board before being shut down with a knee injury in January. He came back and played 9 more games in March, and was a bit more polarizing with his final box scores, but it's clear as day the talent is there.
Vassell's most notable progression was in his efficiency and scoring. Vassell was taking 5 more shots per game, including 1.5 more 3's per game, which saw his 2-point shooting % increase by 1.2%, and his 3-point shooting % increase by 2.6%.
Vassell has shown the ability to make contested shots but with so much anticipated defensive attention to Wembanyama, that shouldn't be as frequently required. Vassell is one of my favorite breakout candidates in the league this year and with a current ADP around the late 8th to early 9th rounds, he feels like a bargain.
.@Yvngdevo was in his bag last night 💼
📊: 21 PTS, 3 AST, 6-7 3PT@Ticketmaster | #sponsored pic.twitter.com/6XEw2i6DN1
— San Antonio Spurs (@spurs) October 14, 2023
Fantasy Basketball Bust: Tre Jones
As has been the theme with the "bust" choices, I think Jones is a totally serviceable starting PG in real basketball, but not so much in fantasy.
Jones is a solid floor general; he ranked 7th in assist-to-turnover ratio last year and finished 15th in the league in assists per game. I see him having similar output this year in terms of assists, but that's pretty much where the hope for an upside fades away.
Jones is not a scorer and can be practically ignored as a shooter (shot 28.5% from 3 last year on 2.3 attempts per game). When the ball isn't in his hands, he's essentially invisible on offense. His spot in the starting 5 should be safe, but it's worth noting he should be the Spur most likely to concede meaningful minutes to their backup (Devonte' Graham). Let someone else draft Jones, and when he's inevitably dropped consider him an awesome streaming option for assists and maybe steals as well.
Fantasy Basketball Lock: Victor Wembanyama
Wembanyama's ADP has been steadily rising all off-season and shot up drastically after pre-season games started. I couldn't justify putting him as a breakout, because basketball fans have been hearing this guy's name for 3+ years at this point. But, if you watch the video in the tweet below, and don't see a guy who is going to dominate in the NBA, I don't know what to tell you.
Victor Wembanyama showed the world tonight that the hype is real
(🎥 @IQfor3 )
— NBACentral (@TheDunkCentral) October 14, 2023
Conclusion
The Spurs will be a fun team to watch this year, but it feels like they're still a year away from being a year away from making true noise. They still have a top 2 coach in the NBA, and have some talented players. I think the Spurs will be frisky this year, and good teams will learn to not take them lightly, but Popovich has more years of experience as a head coach in the NBA (27) than the top 10 players on the Spurs' depth chart have played combined (25). It's safe to say there is some much-needed experience coming their way this year.
As for fantasy, I believe the Spurs will be one of the teams that define leagues this year. With so many guys primed to take a step forward; the 3 I mentioned as well as guys like Keldon Johnson and Jeremy Sochan, there are a lot of unknowns with this squad. Hitting on the right Spur late in the draft can provide huge value for managers.
Thanks for reading and good luck in your leagues this year!
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