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Every year there are breakout, bust, and lock players in fantasy basketball. Max Kulish identifies one player for each category on the New Orleans Pelicans.
The Pelicans are a team that have been on the verge of turning their franchise around for several seasons. They had their season derailed by injuries to Brandon Ingram and Zion Williamson last year, but still battled the rest of the year and finished above .500. They bring back most of their roster from last year with the hope of breaking through and into the playoffs in the 2023-2024 NBA season.
If you play fantasy football, you'll probably recognize the format here as we had a series of preseason NFL articles that followed the same outline. The idea here is to hone in on players from each team that we see as undervalued for the upcoming season or who are possibly being drafted too high this preseason.
In this piece, you'll find a fantasy basketball breakout candidate, a fantasy basketball bust candidate, and a fantasy basketball lock (think steady production and being drafted correctly) for the New Orleans Pelicans based on early ADP for fantasy basketball drafts for the 2023-2024 season. Be sure to follow me on Twitter /X (@Maxadelphia) for more fantasy basketball insight (amongst other things).
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Fantasy Basketball Breakout: Herb Jones
Heading into his third year, Jones is one of my favorite potential breakout candidates.
Jones has made a name for himself as one of the better perimeter defenders in the game already, but through two years, he averages 9.7 PPG playing almost 30 minutes per night. The majority of my optimism comes from the fact the Pelicans made no roster moves that would suggest Jones' role is being challenged. Hopefully, he can continue progressing as a player, and subsequently see his minutes, scoring, and other areas improve.
There have also been reports of the Pelicans trying Jones out at center in a small ball lineup. Granted, teams mess around with things in camp all the time, but if this is something that happens in the regular season, that would put Jones' fantasy stock through the roof.
Fantasy Basketball Bust: Jonas Valanciunas
Valanciunas played pretty well in the FIBA World Cup over the summer, including a 12-point, seven-rebound game in only 19 minutes against the USA in an upset win for the Lithuanians.
However, I think the pendulum swung a bit too far back as a result -- Valanciunas now carries an ADP in the late seventh/early eighth round, which is just too high in my opinion. Valanciunas saw a substantial minute decrease last year, and if you believe that blurb in the previous paragraph about Herb Jones playing as a small ball 5, that would also cut into Valanciunas' minutes.
While Jonas is still productive on a point-minute basis, he's not worth drafting at his ADP if we are going to see his minutes constantly get cut as the Pelicans opt to close out games with small lineups.
Fantasy Basketball Lock: Brandon Ingram
Believe it or not, Ingram is only 26 years old heading into his eighth season in the NBA. Ingram is coming off a career year as both a scorer and a playmaker, averaging career-highs in both stats (24.7 PPG, 5.8 APG). The Pelicans find themselves with no true point guard on the roster, and all signs from players and staff alike seem to indicate that Ingram will be doing a fair amount of initiating the offense. He finished last season as the de facto point guard, averaging over eight assists in the final month of the season.
While some Pelicans showed out on the international stage, Ingram found himself losing minutes to Austin Reaves due to lineup balancing purposes. Ingram has also made comments about "trying to get some big money" and countless times we've seen guys take their game to another level heading into a contract season. Ingram has a lot to play for this year, and if he can increase his playmaking numbers without sacrificing too much scoring, you're looking at a likely top 20-30 player being taken in the fourth/fifth round.
Conclusion
The Pelicans crashed and burned in the play-in tournament last year after finishing as the ninth seed. We've seen this team be really good; they were no lower than third in the West until after the calendar turned to 2023 last season. The Pelicans are a tough team to figure out; they did have the fifth-best average points differential in the West last season, but they also finished 25th in close game win %.
I think the talent on this team should keep them playing longer than 82 games once again, but to actually win a real playoff series would require Ingram (or someone else) to step up as a facilitator and for Zion Williamson to finally put it all together and play way more than the 29 games he appeared in last season.
For fantasy, the Pelicans are maybe the most loaded team in the league at forward top-to-bottom, mostly due to the fact they have two competent guards on the roster. At times, the Pels feel stuck in a different era since all their best players want to work in the low post or on the elbow, and they don't exactly shoot the 3 (29th in attempts per game, 24th in makes per game). If you need help with efficiency or are looking for depth at forward, the Pelicans are a great team to target, but for most other scoring and shooting categories you're better off looking elsewhere.
Thanks for reading and good luck in your leagues this year!
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