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Dave Swan's fantasy baseball buy low and sell high candidates for Week 18of the 2021 season. He recommends MLB risers and fallers to target or deal away in trades.
Sometimes fantasy baseball can resemble the stock market. You want the best portfolio of players without having to pay too much for them. Sometimes to achieve the optimal team, you need to make trades. The best way to gain added value is to trade away an over-performing player for one in a rut. This way, you reap the benefits of a stud player hitting their stride as you get to watch the other person look for answers. The tricky part is assessing which players are trending in which way.
As we start heading to the final stretch, teams and players are beginning to take form. Expected stats are starting to stabilize, and we can better understand a player's growth.
This will be a weekly piece that drops every Thursday for your assistance. If you like it, follow me on Twitter @davithius to send me a note, suggest other players you're not sure about, or if you want to chat about baseball. I am always happy and willing to answer questions.
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Trade Targets to Acquire
Harrison Bader, St Louis Cardinals
If you weren't one of the lucky waiver wire warriors to scoop Bader up over the last few weeks, I apologize. However, now is the time to right a wrong and try to trade for him. In the previous week, Bader's roster% has risen 39%, making him rostered in only 48% of leagues. So, stop and check if he is still there first. If not, let me explain why you need to make the trade.
First, managers who pick up from a player from the wire tend to have less attachment. Likely, they favor the players they drafted a little more and move a player they just picked up since it's basically like found money. The challenging part is how productive Bader has been. Over the last month, he is 28-for-77 with 12 extra-base hits(7 HRs) and three stolen bases. Included in those outstanding numbers is a .364 batting average and .417 OBP. Yes, if you didn't pick him up, you missed out.
Trading when someone is on a hot streak is tricky. However, the outfield is a position that most believe they can use the wire to fill, kind of like Bader. This might be the right time to unload some players who will lose time due to recent trades in real baseball. Perhaps some of the RPs were closers and moved into setup roles, like Kendal Graveman or Yimi Garcia. Either way, finding someone this late in the season with power+speed is difficult. THE BAT X projections Bader for nine HRs, five SB, 30 runs, and 38 RBI with a .250 batting average for the rest of the season. Those numbers would roughly make him the 31st most valuable outfielder. I would be finding a way to make a deal as soon as possible.
Jorge Soler, Kansas City Royals
Need power? Who doesn't. Well, it's time to start kicking the tires with the Soler manager. The Royals' outfielder/DH has been disastrous for the majority of the season. His .194/.291/.375 with .666 OPS leaves you wondering why Soler is rostered in 52% of Yahoo leagues. Furthermore, if someone drafted him, it was indeed for HRs. And Soler only has 13 HRs on the season, which puts him on page three of the Fangraphs leaderboard page. Gross!
So wait, why do we want him then? First, Soler has been as unlucky as they come from an expected stats perspective. Among all qualified hitters in the MLB, Soler has the sixth-largest difference in xwOBA vs. wOBA. Also, when you dive into xSLG%(.471) vs. SLG%(.375), he is the fourth most unlucky. Now, part of the problem is he plays in that gigantic ballpark known as Kauffman Stadium. Oddly, his .731 OPS is 130 points higher at home than on the road.
Additionally, Soler is a dynamic power hitter. He ranks in the 85th percentile or better in the following Statcast metrics: Barrel%(86th), Hard-Hit%(91st), Max Exit Velocity(95th), and Average Exit Velocity(91st). Yeah, it's safe to say when Soler hits the ball, quality contact is made. The main reason for the massive dip in season numbers is a bad start to the season(Pre-ASB .186 AVG .599 OPS). However, since the All-Star Break, it's like Soler is refreshed. In those 11 games, he touts a robust .543 ISO with six HRs and a walk rate south of 19%. This leads us to wonder, was he just unlucky to begin, has he figured something out, or a combination of both? Either way, it's time to offer up some trades and try to pry him away to find out. Luckily, he shouldn't cost too much, so don't start too high with your trade offer.
Jon Gray, Colorado Rockies
Poor Jon Gray, the Rockies' SP has spent seven seasons calling Coors Field his home park. That's about half of his starts in the stadium that has allowed the highest BABIP and runs allowed. I mean, they had to build a humidor to try and limit the batter's dominance. And in those seven years, Gray has seen his share of ups and downs. Oddly, this season, he is an entire run lower at home instead of being on the road. We are going to chalk this up to small sample size anomalies.
There is excellent news likely to break any day. The lowly Rockies are destined not to make the playoffs and need to start parting ways with assets to re-build. On the trade block is none other than Jon Gray. Additionally, the Rockies need to trade Gray at his peak, which might be right now. He is sporting a 6-6 record with a 3.67 ERA and 91 Ks in 98 IP. He has found success from lowering his changeup and curveball usage and throwing the slider more. It's a brilliant move because the slider has generated the most whiffs throughout his career. Also, it pairs very well with his 95-mph fastball, which is also up a tick in velocity.
Plain and simple, Gray has been a serviceable SP for a while but is hampered by a problematic ballpark and hindered by a losing team. At the same time, we don't know where he will end up or end up being traded. If he goes to any team with a winning record, we could see a boost in the wins category. The trade deadline is Friday(July 30th), so get moving on your trade offers ASAP. Maybe even get a little more gracious due to time constraints.
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